Major Economic Issues For Thailand

[musungu]

In view of the above forecasts why does the Thai baht not collapse to 60bht to £1 as it was in 2007. ?

[PET]

Why is the baht so high, because the Govt borrowings are so high that any devaluation would be death to the economy

[PeteC]

There's a lot of meaning in and insight from this article showing what ails this place. It's a never ending cycle concerning lower born people as they don't want to educate them properly. That's strongly evidenced by government promises to change the education system, but they never do. Those lower born have children, most of which go through the same existence, endlessly. Keeps the power boys endlessly happy though with perpetual cheap labour.

Over half of Thai workers in informal sector

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/ge ... mal-sector

Thailand has 21 million workers in the informal labour sector, accounting for 52.3% of the country's overall workforce of 40.1 million. The majority, particularly in the agricultural sector, earn much lower incomes than those in the formal sector, according to National Statistical Office (NSO) director Piyanut Wuthison.

Ms Piyanut said her office has conducted an annual survey on workers in the informal sector, generally referred to those who lack fixed work hours and wages and may have difficulties in accessing legal protection.

According to this year's survey, 21 million workers (52.3%) are in the informal sector, while 19.1 million (47.7%) operate in the formal sector.

About half of the informal workers are between 40 and 59 years of age.

The overall workforce includes 5.1 million workers over 60, with 4.4 million situated in the informal sector.

Most informal workers possess primary level education.

More than half of informal workers, 55.4%, are in the agricultural sector, earning nearly two times lower than their counterparts in the formal sector.

About 28% of informal workers have problems over wages, employment continuity and overwork.

It may be concluded that workers in the informal sector need access to the social security system for a better quality of life and livelihood, Ms Piyanut said.

[caller]

That article is a sad expose of the mess of Thailands own doing, that is now causing so many problems.

[Suua]

There's a lot of meaning in and insight from this article showing what ails this place. It's a never ending cycle concerning lower born people as they don't want to educate them properly. That's strongly evidenced by government promises to change the education system, but they never do. Those lower born have children, most of which go through the same existence, endlessly. Keeps the power boys endlessly happy though with perpetual cheap labour.

Spot on Pete, couldn't agree more...

Not forgetting that article comes from a 'Pro Junta' newspaper.
So reality is likely worse.

[caller]

It does rather remind me of what a Thai here in Hua Hin, who had grown up in the US, said when I talked of seeing young guys in an Isaan village, just lounging around doing nothing, when many of the womenfolk were away working, as some of the men were, working in construction abroad. He said words to the effect of, 'if you have no future, why worry about what you do today'.

It also reminds me of the long BP article of a few years back, where they featured the extensive salt farms in Petchaburi, which is back breaking manual labour, and the older guys talking of having to sell up as their kids weren't interested in taking over, and would rather go and work in Bkk, where making the same money was easier. Most rice farmers are in reality part time, or elderly, as they can't make a decent living at it, so family simply return for harvesting and planting, due to being shafted for years by the system in place that controls prices (have to be careful here, as the other halfs brother is a part of that system). I have witnessed the battered old pick up's and bigger trucks turning up to sell their rice, and being weighed in, then unloading, then being weighed again on the way out and paid for the difference.

[buksida]

PM blames economic woes on central bank
Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin has accused the Bank of Thailand of damaging the economy, causing troubles for the poor and small- and medium-sized businesses, by raising its policy rate.

In a post on X (formerly Twitter) on Sunday night, Mr Srettha said the central bank had raised its policy rate even though there had been negative inflation for months. The rise did not benefit the economy, and adversely affected low-income earners and SMEs, he said.

During a visit to the Royal Thai Police Office on Monday morning, the prime minister said he disagreed with the BoT's interest rate hike and had made his position clear.

"I say that (inflation) is very low. So, an interest reduction should be considered. I would like to send this message," Mr Srettha said.

The prime minister said the interest hike affected prices of farm goods, and he had ordered the Ministry of Commerce to prevent farm prices falling. "If they are too low, there will be trouble," he said.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/ge ... ntral-bank

Pretty obvious why, high-interest rates here only benefit the banks and lenders (its not as if savers can get 4-5% on their THB). Moreover, "negative inflation" means that prices for everything should be falling right? I'm waving the bullshit flag on that one.

[buksida]

Pretty obvious why, high-interest rates here only benefit the banks and lenders (its not as if savers can get 4-5% on their THB).

Shares of banks are taking a hit as criticism against the Bank of Thailand (BoT) grows for allowing banks to make substantial profits while small businesses and individuals are grappling with significant debt and rising interest rates.

Ten commercial banks collectively earned a profit of 186.6 billion baht in the first nine months of 2023, marking a 14% year-on-year increase, attributed to rising interest rates.
It has also been reported that eight commercial banks are expected to generate a combined profit of 224.3 billion baht in 2024 for the same reason, despite projections of a 2.4% expansion in the economy in 2023 and 3.2% in 2024.

The BoT has raised policy interest rates eight times since August 2022, from a historic low of 0.5% to the current 2.5%, the highest since October 2013. Meanwhile, headline inflation has contracted for three consecutive months between October and December.

Source: Thai Enquirer

The bankers [ ] and elites lining their pockets at the expense of the people yet again ... will it ever end?

[caller]

The bankers [ ] and elites lining their pockets at the expense of the people yet again ... will it ever end?

The one economist in Thailand that seems to swim against the tide, thinks not, well not in the way of screwing ordinary people, but private bond defaults, as already being reported this week, are the next potential risk. The vistims this time could be foreign investers and that won't go down well when seeking more foreign investment.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opi ... in-the-sky

[buksida]

Navigating Economic Turbulence: The Thai Economy at a Crossroads
As Thailand grapples with its latest economic challenges, the recent contraction in headline inflation for four consecutive months has emerged as a critical barometer of the nation’s financial health. Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin’s warning underscores a broader economic narrative that demands urgent attention. The Bank of Thailand (BoT)’s aggressive interest rate hikes, aimed at taming inflation, now seem to tread a fine line between stabilizing prices and inadvertently stifling economic growth.

The confluence of rising interest rates, from a historic low of 0.5% to the current 2.5%, the highest since October 2013, and the subsequent economic contraction, signals a precarious juncture for Thailand. This tightrope walk by the BoT reflects a broader global challenge as central banks worldwide struggle to balance inflation control with economic vitality.

At the heart of this economic quandary are the small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and low-income earners. These groups bear the brunt of the economic slowdown, exacerbated by higher debts and rising financial burdens. The Prime Minister’s call for the BoT to lower the policy interest rate is not merely a fiscal policy adjustment but a plea for economic empathy and sustainability. The financial health of these vulnerable sectors is paramount for the broader economic ecosystem, as they constitute the backbone of Thailand’s economy, driving innovation, employment, and social stability.

https://www.thaienquirer.com/51678/navi ... rossroads/

[caller]

The end is nigh for the Thal economy, according to economist Chartchai Parasuk, and it starts in May! Whats worrying is that he is usually spot on, in his predictions.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opi ... i-economy-

[STEVE G]

The end is nigh for the Thal economy, according to economist Chartchai Parasuk, and it starts in May! Whats worrying is that he is usually spot on, in his predictions.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opi ... i-economy-

I'm not saying he's wrong but since about the millennium, the Thai economy seems to have a peculiar skill of being forever teetering on the edge of collapse without actually falling.

[buksida]

I reckon that's where the name "Teflon Thailand" comes from. By all regular economic standards that apply to normal countries, this place should have collapsed years ago since the entire economy is built on credit and the premise of billions of tourists that don't exist!

[buksida]

Thailand’s post-pandemic economic recovery still trailing behind
Unlike other ASEAN countries, Thailand’s real GDP and GDP per capita have yet to outpace pre-pandemic figures. The Thai economy was hit hard by COVID-19 and has experienced a relatively slow economic recovery. Thailand’s large informal economy and dependence on tourism made the economy particularly vulnerable to the pandemic.

Mild economic growth in 2023 was primarily driven by activities in the travel sector, but the manufacturing sector continued to contract. Merchandise exports, a backbone of the Thai economy, continued to decline.

The new government’s short-term economic policies include a one-off digital cash payment to about 50 million residents across the country, debt relief aimed at tackling illegal loan sharks and efforts to cut energy and electric train costs. Its medium- to long-term economic measures include new free trade agreements, green industry projects and a land bridge project connecting the Gulf of Thailand with the Andaman Sea.

https://eastasiaforum.org/2024/02/09/th ... ng-behind/

[buksida]

Thai economy falters as high interest rates impact major sectors
The Thai economy has taken a hit, with government revenue collections falling short of the target. Lavaron Sangsnit, the permanent finance secretary, attributed the shortfall to high interest rates, which have significantly reduced the purchasing power of consumers, impacting major sectors such as automobiles and real estate.

Consumers, particularly those interested in purchasing cars or homes, have found their ability to meet monthly loan repayments affected by to high-interest rates, according to Lavaron. This has led to loan rejections by financial institutions. Consequently, there has been a decline in car and property transfers, leading to a reduction in government tax revenue.

https://thethaiger.com/news/business/th ... or-sectors

Don't worry about the economy, the banks are still making billions.