GBP vs THB

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oakdale160
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Re: GBP vs THB

Post by oakdale160 » Sat Nov 05, 2016 11:06 am

The rise in the pound may be as much to do with the fall of the $ due to the uncertainty of the NOV 8 vote.

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Re: GBP vs THB

Post by redzonerocker » Sat Nov 05, 2016 4:05 pm

oakdale160 wrote:The rise in the pound may be as much to do with the fall of the $ due to the uncertainty of the NOV 8 vote.
Don't spoil it for the EU remoaners, they'll have nothing to whine about. :wink:
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Re: GBP vs THB

Post by dtaai-maai » Sat Nov 05, 2016 4:24 pm

I can only assume that there are plenty of Brits on this forum who don't need to worry about losing 20% (and probably more in due course) of their UK income. Either that or they don't actually live here. That was my main concern about Brexit, and the situation doesn't look like getting any better in the next few years. Seems to me there's a lot more gloating than whining going on.
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Re: GBP vs THB

Post by Big Boy » Sat Nov 05, 2016 6:41 pm

Of course we worry about it, but there's nothing we can do about. Just got to chalk it up to experience, and get on with things.
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Re: GBP vs THB

Post by HHTel » Sat Nov 05, 2016 11:10 pm

I'm getting to quite like Ma-Ma!!!

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Re: GBP vs THB

Post by Big Boy » Sun Nov 06, 2016 8:10 am

LOL - fortunately, eating is only a minor consideration for me since my operation 5 years ago :wink:
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Re: GBP vs THB

Post by Gus » Mon Nov 07, 2016 9:19 pm

Will the result of the USA Presidency affect the dollar, and hence the GBP vTHB?
If Clinton wins I might go and change some GBP to THB as soon as possible as I feel we need Trump to win for the $ to fall.

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Re: GBP vs THB

Post by StevePIraq » Wed Nov 09, 2016 1:17 pm

Off topic but the USD is always being raised so here is a snippet from Trading Economics
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailan ... y/forecast

A substantial fall in the value of Baht to Dollar is forecast, down to 41.5 to the dollar by 2020.
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Re: GBP vs THB

Post by HHTel » Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:06 pm

That didn't take into account Trump as president. Having said that, the dollar has weakened against the pound but seems to be quite stable with the baht.

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Re: GBP vs THB

Post by lomuamart » Fri Nov 11, 2016 1:02 pm

Gus wrote:Will the result of the USA Presidency affect the dollar, and hence the GBP vTHB?
If Clinton wins I might go and change some GBP to THB as soon as possible as I feel we need Trump to win for the $ to fall.
Did you change some GBP?
It appears that Trump's victory is having an beneficial effect on the exchange rate with masses of money flowing out of Asian markets into the USA and other "safer" destinations on the back of fears that he may introduce protectionist polices leading to inflation and higher interest rates.
GBP currently trading at 44.32 to the THB.
Many Asain currencies are having a tough time including the Yen, Ringitt and Aussie Dollar.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/ ... e-barriers

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Re: GBP vs THB

Post by Bluesky » Fri Nov 11, 2016 1:41 pm

lomuamart wrote:
Did you change some GBP?
It appears that Trump's victory is having an beneficial effect on the exchange rate with masses of money flowing out of Asian markets into the USA and other "safer" destinations on the back of fears that he may introduce protectionist polices leading to inflation and higher interest rates.
GBP currently trading at 44.32 to the THB.
Many Asain currencies are having a tough time including the Yen, Ringitt and Aussie Dollar.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/ ... e-barriers
A bit of good news for a change for a strengthening GBP on the back of capital outflows from Asia. The question of sustainability is still well open and hopefully won't evolve into a 'dead cat bounce' in the coming weeks.

The bank of Thailand has resisted cutting rates on its last meeting choosing to leave the option open whilst giving some recognition to potential headwinds.

Bank of Thailand Maintains 1.5% Interest Rate
November 9, 2016

The 1.5% one-day central bank repo rate, lowest since June 2010, has been at that level since back-to-back 25-basis point reductions in March and April 2015. There were six previous cuts of the same size administered from November 2011 to March 2014. A statement released after the latest monetary policy review called the current stance “accommodative and conducive to the economic recovery” and suggested that in the face of potential domestic and external risks, it’s important to retain policy flexibility in case things deteriorate.

The list of mentioned risks includes baht appreciation, “uncertainties stemming from political developments in the US and Europe, concerns over the European and Chinese financial sectors, the fragile global economy” and a possibility of fewer Chinese tourists than assumed. Growth is positive, but officials now think it will take longer for inflation to rise back to target.





http://currencythoughts.com/2016/11/09/ ... rest-rate/

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Re: GBP vs THB

Post by AJBangkok » Sat Nov 12, 2016 7:39 pm

Under Obama the US economy has been driven by monetary policy rather than fiscal policy to create growth. If you believe Trump's victory speech then that's about to change. His infrastructure program will require huge fiscal spending and when it's all said and done that means more debt which equals higher inteest rates, more inflation and a stronger dollar.

Under the above scenario and considering the value of the baht is still linked to a basket of currencies heavily weighted toward the US dollar I don't see the baht weakening any time soon. Adding to that Thailand has a capital account surplus and is a net exporter running a trade surplus so every month that means people are net buying baht to pay Thailand for its exports. It's a tough call to make that the baht will weaken dramatically unless there is some kind of intervention to push it lower.

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Re: GBP vs THB

Post by uncle tom » Sat Nov 26, 2016 11:49 am

I have to make a decision on whether to change a large lump of GBP into THB in the next month or a series of small lumps over the next three months.

Changing a big lump results in lower charges, but it would be a bummer if sterling then rebounded..

It's a hard call..

The markets always trade on anticipation, rather than the here and now, and those who bet on hell freezing over following Brexit seem to have lost their shirts (certainly in the equity markets) - but are the markets now working on the assumption that the frost in Hades has been delayed rather than cancelled?

Then there's the score in Thailand. The passing of HRH has had very little impact on the THB, yet tourism appears to be down and Chinese tourism has imploded for other reasons. Not only has sterling been weak, but the euro is on a steady downslope at the moment, so there's no great reason for optimism on that front.

So, are the currency markets too negative on GBP and underestimating headwinds for THB...?

Perhaps....
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Re: GBP vs THB

Post by StevePIraq » Sat Nov 26, 2016 11:57 am

StevePIraq wrote:Off topic but the USD is always being raised so here is a snippet from Trading Economics
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailan ... y/forecast

A substantial fall in the value of Baht to Dollar is forecast, down to 41.5 to the dollar by 2020.
Taking Trump into account now gives Baht at 42.56 by 2020.
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Re: GBP vs THB

Post by StevePIraq » Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:11 am

GBP to Thai Baht is now lowest in ten years according to XE.com @ 42.967 to 1 GBP
1.jpg
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