Major Economic Issues For Thailand

[lomuamart]

And we'll all be paying some tax soon!!

[migrant]

Well it helps the exchange rate at least

[Suua]

Great article here.....

Time to stop making empty promises
https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opi ... y-promises

[caller]

And yesterdays offering from Chratchai Parasuk is quite sobering reading as well. Interesting factual data about reduced tourist spending, despite the numbers now visiting.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opi ... ur-economy

[caller]

A good article from Al Jazeera, basically spells out what has gone wrong for Thailand, as discussed by Thai academics. Pity they don't get aired here. Nothing unknown, just reassuring to hear Thais talk about it.

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2024/ ... race-ahead

[buksida]

Slowdown weighs on current account
Thailand's waning appeal in terms of attracting foreign direct investment (FDI), an uneven tourism recovery and the currency outlook are pressuring the country's current account surplus, which is still below the pre-pandemic level, says BMI, a Fitch Solutions company.

Thailand, once a magnet for foreign capital, now has to contend with escalating regional competition.

India and Vietnam have emerged as the major recipients of a shift in investment currents, BMI said in its research.

In stark contrast, Thailand is trailing, unable to keep pace with its peers because of several factors such as demographic challenges and an unstable political landscape.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/ge ... nt-account

Funny how the politicians and bankers are singing a completely different tune ...

[Suua]

They're lying?????

[caller]

They're lying?????

This is an interesting comment about projected GDP, and it will be interesting to see what figures are published (not full quote):

'The official Q1 GDP has not been announced by the NESDC. I expect the growth figure will be around 1.2%. Readers might raise an eyebrow
as to why I said NESDC's figure is likely 1.2% while my own estimation is 0.98%. The answer is this is Thailand, and a growth figure below 1% is not politically acceptable.'

From Dr. Chartchai Parasuk's latest Bangkok Post article about the state of the Thai economy. Grim reading.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opi ... ic-figures

[Suua]

I save all of Dr.Chartchai's articles.
I remembered in one of his articles that he outright accused the BOT of lying.....

https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opi ... 14-billion

Towards the end of his article......
Quote: But, in Thailand, actual data is sometimes manipulated.
Quote: A final note to the BoT: honesty is always the best policy. There should be lessons learned from manipulating foreign reserve data in 1997.

I love this man!

[Ratsima]

And yesterdays offering from Chratchai Parasuk is quite sobering reading as well. Interesting factual data about reduced tourist spending, despite the numbers now visiting.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opi ... ur-economy

I always look forward to his column. While I may not agree with everything he says, he writes clearly, makes his points well and in an easy-to-understand way. I always learn something.

[buksida]

PM warns of recession risk, seeks new ideas
The economy is not safe from the risk of a recession amid slow GDP growth, high household debt and burgeoning bad loans, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin said on Wednesday.

Mr Srettha, who is on an official trip to Japan, said he would chair an urgent meeting of ministers in charge of the economy and related agencies on Monday to brainstorm ideas to revitalise the economy.

The special meetings will be held weekly for the foreseeable future, he said, stressing the need to come up with new ideas.

The move comes after the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) reported economic growth of just 1.5% year-on-year for the first three months.

The state planning agency now expects gross domestic product (GDP) growth of between 2% and 3% for the year, slightly lower than its previous forecast of 2.2% to 3.2%. Last year’s growth was 1.9%.

The downgrade reflects higher levels of external risk, especially trade protectionism that is intensifying, geopolitical conflicts and increasing volatility in the global economy, the NESDC said.

Thailand’s growth in the first quarter trailed that of six other members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean). The Philippines and Vietnam led the pack, at 5.7% each, followed by Indonesia (5.1%), Malaysia (4.2%) and Singapore (2.7%), according to NESDC figures.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/ge ... -new-ideas

Maybe the PM could start by not spending billions of baht that don't exist on hair-brained schemes that only benefits the food cartel.

[Suua]

Maybe the PM could start by not spending billions of baht that don't exist on hair-brained schemes that only benefits the food cartel.

And on top of that hair-brained scheme.....below is part of an article by Dr. Chartchai.

1) Third, substantial repayments are due in 2024. There is 1.2 trillion baht in scheduled repayments for corporate bonds (890 billion baht) and commercial paper (235 billion baht). If just 20% of the scheduled repayment amount -- 240 billion baht -- is defaulted on or postponed, that would be more than enough to create chaos in the 4.7-trillion-baht private debt market.

2) The payment postponements of Italian-Thai Development (ITD) to the amount of 14.45 billion baht and Siamnuwat (SNW) to the amount of 520 million baht are two examples of much bigger things to come.

3) More dangerous than domestic debt is foreign debt. Thai corporates have borrowed $18 billion, equivalent to 4.2 trillion baht, from abroad. Half of that amount is short-term loan repayments due in 2024. How much will be renewed and how much would be recalled is hard to assess; however, domestic bond and paper defaults could trigger the "cross-default" clause in which foreign creditors are obligated to recall all loans given to a defaulted company.

with regard to item 2)......I live not too far from macro Pranburi.
There is a large road project that seems to have come to a grinding halt for the past month or so....just a skeleton crew seem to be there some days.....is this a sign of Ital Thai putting on the brakes???

[hhinner]

Maybe the PM could start by not spending billions of baht that don't exist on hair-brained schemes that only benefits the food cartel.

And on top of that hair-brained scheme.....below is part of an article by Dr. Chartchai.

1) Third, substantial repayments are due in 2024. There is 1.2 trillion baht in scheduled repayments for corporate bonds (890 billion baht) and commercial paper (235 billion baht). If just 20% of the scheduled repayment amount -- 240 billion baht -- is defaulted on or postponed, that would be more than enough to create chaos in the 4.7-trillion-baht private debt market.

2) The payment postponements of Italian-Thai Development (ITD) to the amount of 14.45 billion baht and Siamnuwat (SNW) to the amount of 520 million baht are two examples of much bigger things to come.

3) More dangerous than domestic debt is foreign debt. Thai corporates have borrowed $18 billion, equivalent to 4.2 trillion baht, from abroad. Half of that amount is short-term loan repayments due in 2024. How much will be renewed and how much would be recalled is hard to assess; however, domestic bond and paper defaults could trigger the "cross-default" clause in which foreign creditors are obligated to recall all loans given to a defaulted company.

with regard to item 2)......I live not too far from macro Pranburi.
There is a large road project that seems to have come to a grinding halt for the past month or so....just a skeleton crew seem to be there some days.....is this a sign of Ital Thai putting on the brakes???

The pause in road work may be due to high temperatures. Maybe.

Closing down thousands of cannabis shops isn't going to help the economy very much either (unless you're a cop).

[StevePIraq]

For me if the economy goes down then whoopee, my money lasts longer. Of course there may be inflation but then it all depends what you spend on