GBP vs THB

[PET]

The B of E did not increase interest rates at their meeting yesterday, although 0.25% was expected. As a result sterling fell and whereas the Stg/Baht buying rate early yesterday was around 45.75 it is now 44.58 at Kasikorn and 44.69 at Wise (net of costs)

[HHTel]

Very noticeable. A steep drop of half a baht in just a couple of hours. Now showing at 44.99.

[usual suspect]

6pm Tues..Wise offering 44.42 (net) Exchange booths near the Hilton in HH this morrning were offering 43.7..

[HHTel]

Yep, going through the floor. Or to be more accurate, the THB is going through the roof!

Try finding a currency that has not fallen against the baht. The only one that I found was the Korean Won which has remained steady. The THB has risen against even local currencies - Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam, China and the rest.

It's not the pound, which is up against the Euro and the dollar, but the Thai baht that's surging against everything.

[Big Boy]

Why? A couple of days ago it was because the BofE hadn't raised interest rates. A couple of days later the BoT make a similar announcement, and Teflon Thailand wins again.

[HHTel]

There was a rapid drop when the BoE had their meeting on the 4th. It then remained steady until the 7th when it started it's gradual fall. (or the rise on the baht whichever way you look at it)

Now when did Thailand pretend to open ---- 8th. What a surprise.

[buksida]

The Thai economy is in the pan and stories like this are all too common: https://www.thaienquirer.com/34842/cent ... -measures/

Tourists are trickling in and more than half of related businesses are still closed with millions still unemployed so there is very little revenue there. Household debt and non-performing loans are off the chart and the banks have had to take measures dropping their deposit protection.

The currency should be tanking so the only conclusion to make is that THB is highly manipulated.

[HHTel]

Exactly. Thailand has a long history of 'propping' up the THB when in fact they should be considering a devaluation. (Can't do that as it means 'losing face').

The state of the economy is not reflected in the strength of the baht, so the only conclusion is currency manipulation.

[buksida]

(Can't do that as it means 'losing face').

It also means that the generals, oligarchs, and billionaires wouldn't get better rates when buying foreign currency and properties overseas.

[HHTel]

My view as a simple minded person. Thailand is an exporting country and relies on exports for the largest part of GDP. A strong baht has the potential of hurting exports which they can't afford to happen. Alternatively, devaluing the baht would further boost the export economy and also give a boost, however small, to the tourist trade.

Is that too simplistic a view? Don't I understand?

Maybe we have an economist onboard who can explain it better.

[buksida]

That makes perfect sense, but Thailand is an oligarchy run by those whose only interest is to enrich themselves, not the people beneath them or the nation as a whole.

[Big Boy]

£ seems to be in free fall over the last couple of days - does anybody know why please?

[Groodman]

UK newspaper talk is that there will be no interest rate hike this month.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-02/omicron-s-emergence-may-push-back-case-for-boe-rate-increase

[buksida]

Looks like the US may raise interest rates (cable pair will weaken against the dollar, hence baht also), additionally, there is a lot of confusion over Omicron in the UK as politicians dither as usual.

https://www.futurecurrencyforecast.com/ ... cted-50086

[Dannie Boy]

I’d hardly call it free fall - if you look at the following chart the rates go up and down on a frequent basis, often with little known justification (other than HHTel doing his monthly transfer)!!
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=THB