Effects of Covid-19 on airlines

Temporary sub-forum for all news, updates, developments and discussion on Coronavirus/Covid-19 in Hua Hin, Thailand and globally. Any and all topics on the outbreak will be moved into this forum for ease of information access.
User avatar
pharvey
Moderator
Moderator
Posts: 13958
Joined: Sat Aug 29, 2009 10:21 am
Location: Sir Fynwy - God's Country

Re: Effects of Covid-19 on airlines

Post by pharvey »

Coronavirus: Crisis-Hit Virgin Atlantic Files For Bankruptcy

"Virgin Atlantic has filed for bankruptcy in the US as the global aviation industry feels the impact of the coronavirus pandemic.

The UK-based airline is seeking protection under chapter 15 of the US bankruptcy code, which allows a foreign debtor to shield assets in the country.

It is the second Virgin-branded airline to struggle this year. Virgin Australia went into administration in April.

Meanwhile, Virgin Australia's new owner Bain Capital is set to cut 3,000 jobs.

Virgin Atlantic's US bankruptcy court filing said it had negotiated a deal with stakeholders "for a consensual recapitalization" that will get debt off its balance sheet and "immediately position it for sustainable long-term growth".

The move comes less than a month after the company said it had agreed a rescue deal worth £1.2bn ($1.6bn) to secure its future beyond the coronavirus crisis.

Under that plan Richard Branson's Virgin Group injected £200m, with additional funds provided by investors and creditors.

The billionaire Virgin boss had a request for UK government money rejected, leaving the airline in a race against time to secure new investment."


Full Story: - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53659844
"Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things" - Yma o Hyd.
User avatar
PeteC
Moderator
Moderator
Posts: 30184
Joined: Tue Mar 23, 2004 7:58 am
Location: All Blacks training camp

Re: Effects of Covid-19 on airlines

Post by PeteC »

Airlines face fierce headwinds

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/19 ... -headwinds

The global airline industry has been disproportionately affected by the coronavirus pandemic, and the strain on its once flourishing fundamentals will affect a broad swath of the world economy well into 2022 and beyond, Moody's Investors Service says in a new report.

The industry is one of just a few that saw demand drop by more than 90% within weeks of the onset of the crisis.

While air travel itself is a key facilitator of tourism spending, the outsourcing by airlines of many services, along with significant employment and fuel consumption in normal economic times, similarly supports economic activity across many sectors.

"Passenger demand for air travel drives demand for key stakeholders in the aviation industry, including airport operators, aircraft leasing companies and aircraft manufacturers, as well as a multitude of service providers that keep airlines and airports running," said Jonathan Root, a senior vice-president of Moody's.

"We expect each of these stakeholders will be significantly impacted for at least the next three years, with 2020 declines for their products and services anticipated to be in the 40% to 50% range, if not higher."

As passenger traffic eventually improves, airports will recover first along with airlines, followed by aircraft lessors and then aircraft manufacturers. The broad base of global suppliers that feed the aircraft manufacturers will be the last to regain their footing, but not before 2023, according to Moody's.

FOUR-YEAR JOURNEY

In terms of demand recovery, Moody's models anticipate a recovery in passenger demand close to 2019 levels by the end of 2023, once the concerns related to personal health and safety are relieved.

However, it cautions that passenger demand may ultimately align with a slower recovery case, or worse, if governments enforce social distancing and reinstate quarantine protocols in light of recent increases in infection rates.

Passenger airlines supported about 3% of world GDP in 2019, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). Airline cargo operations materially bolster international trade, with movement of more than $5 trillion of goods in 2019.

Moody's expects the fundamental performance of airports will move hand-in-hand with demand for air travel because every journey starts and ends at an airport. Thus airports should recover largely in step with the airlines.

As passenger demand recovers, airlines will return aircraft to service, restarting the market for leasing and trading aircraft, which currently remains in hibernation. Aircraft lessors will benefit as recurring requests for rent deferrals subside.

At the same time, there will be a greater willingness to repossess aircraft from weaker airlines as gradually recovering demand facilitates placement of aircraft on new leases.

Aircraft manufacturers, including Airbus and Boeing -- and the broader global supply chain feeding into their operations -- will be the last of the direct aviation industry stakeholders to regain their 2019 footing, and this will not occur before 2023.

Across the globe, many carriers including easyJet, Cathay Pacific, Emirates, Garuda Indonesia and Singapore Airlines, to name a few, have parked 90% or more of their fleets. Moody's expects a non-uniform return of aircraft to service, with airlines that fly mainly domestic or intra-continental service (notably Europe and Asia) bringing aircraft back sooner than legacy carriers with long-haul international operations.

Government support -- whether via grants, loans and/or equity investments -- will remain a key differentiator in airlines' ability to avoid financial restructuring or liquidation. Lack of adequate government support has been a key contributor in recent airline insolvencies in different regions.

With an effective coronavirus vaccine likely not available before well into 2021 -- and likely longer to cover potential mutations of the virus and to ensure adequate dosage supply -- additional government support will be required for the airline industry if employment levels are to be maintained near already reduced levels, and potentially to stave off additional airline restructurings and insolvency proceedings.

EFFICIENT JETS NEEDED

The sooner demand recovers, the better the recovery prospects for aircraft lessors and manufacturers, particularly because of the retirements of older, less efficient aircraft that will occur because of the coronavirus.

Seat density and network planning will affect the total demand for aircraft in respective airline fleets as new models with higher seat counts replace smaller, older aircraft, and airlines more efficiently utilise aircraft assets. Some will change their networks, with stronger carriers expanding, and others retrenching somewhat.

Potential changes to long-haul flying are also on the table. Some carriers may expand point-to-point operations, while others may revert to concentrating on hub-to-hub flying, relying on code-share or joint-venture partners to complete a passenger's long-haul journey.

To replace retired aircraft and to minimise costs related to carbon emissions, the former would require mid-size wide-bodies like the Boeing 787 or Airbus A350-900, and the latter would promote demand for the Boeing 777-9 or the Airbus A350-1000 -- both the largest available passenger models in each manufacturer's lineup.

The need to reduce carbon emissions will also hold out hope for deliveries of A320neo and 737 Max narrow-bodies, including if regulators make carbon reduction schemes more demanding, as some European governments have already done as a condition for their financial support.
Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed. Source
handdrummer
Addict
Addict
Posts: 5389
Joined: Mon Mar 03, 2014 11:58 am

Re: Effects of Covid-19 on airlines

Post by handdrummer »

In the end there may be significantly fewer airlines operating.
User avatar
PeteC
Moderator
Moderator
Posts: 30184
Joined: Tue Mar 23, 2004 7:58 am
Location: All Blacks training camp

Re: Effects of Covid-19 on airlines

Post by PeteC »

Air traffic will not return to pre-COVID-19 levels until 2024: IATA

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020 ... -iata.html

TOKYO - Global air traffic will not return to levels before the coronavirus pandemic until 2024, an industry body said, a year later than its earlier projection due to a slower recovery this year.

The International Air Transportation Association now expects the number of global passengers to fall 55 percent in 2020, sharper than its April forecast of a 46 percent drop.

"The slow speed of improvement is telling us that the recovery will take a year longer than we previously expected," Alexandre de Juniac, director general of the IATA, said at a briefing late last month.

The grimmer outlook reflects a cut in business trips by companies under financial pressure, weak consumer confidence in the face of concerns over their future employment and slow virus containment in the United States and some developing economies.

The latest expectation of a rebound to pre-pandemic levels "could slip further if we have setbacks in containing the virus or finding a vaccine," the IATA chief said.

Passenger traffic, measured in the total distance flown by passengers, tanked 86.5 percent in June from a year earlier following a plunge of 91.0 percent in May, as many countries imposed travel restrictions to curb the virus spread.

Load factor, which measures how full planes are with passengers, stood at 57.6 percent, an all-time low for the month.

Plunging demand will lead the airline industry to lose $84.3 billion in 2020 with revenue forecast to drop 50 percent, according to the IATA, which represents some 290 airlines or 82 percent of global air traffic.

Japan's two biggest airlines reported dismal earnings in their latest quarterly earnings.

Japan Airlines Co. reported a net loss of 93.71 billion yen ($879 million) for the April-June quarter, its largest loss on a quarterly basis since the April-June period in fiscal 2009.

ANA Holdings Inc., the parent company of All Nippon Airways Co., logged a record net loss of 108.82 billion yen in the quarter through June.

Neither carrier provided a forecast for the full year through March 2021, saying it is too early to assess the impact of the virus.
Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed. Source
User avatar
STEVE G
Hero
Hero
Posts: 12929
Joined: Mon Apr 03, 2006 3:50 am
Location: HUA HIN/EUROPE

Re: Effects of Covid-19 on airlines

Post by STEVE G »

Now even the aircraft at the company I work for are wearing masks!:

https://today.rtl.lu/news/luxembourg/a/1569073.html
"Cargolux paints face mask on 747-8 freighter"
User avatar
PeteC
Moderator
Moderator
Posts: 30184
Joined: Tue Mar 23, 2004 7:58 am
Location: All Blacks training camp

Re: Effects of Covid-19 on airlines

Post by PeteC »

^ :laugh: :thumb:
Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed. Source
User avatar
PeteC
Moderator
Moderator
Posts: 30184
Joined: Tue Mar 23, 2004 7:58 am
Location: All Blacks training camp

Re: Effects of Covid-19 on airlines

Post by PeteC »

STEVE G wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:24 pm Now even the aircraft at the company I work for are wearing masks!:

https://today.rtl.lu/news/luxembourg/a/1569073.html
"Cargolux paints face mask on 747-8 freighter"
I wanted to ask Steve, do you and others get travel perks with your company? In other words space available flights. I would imagine each of those 747's have a few rows of seats on the upper deck, and you could be classified as an onboard technician in case there are any industry regulations prohibiting general passengers. :cheers:
Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed. Source
User avatar
STEVE G
Hero
Hero
Posts: 12929
Joined: Mon Apr 03, 2006 3:50 am
Location: HUA HIN/EUROPE

Re: Effects of Covid-19 on airlines

Post by STEVE G »

I wanted to ask Steve, do you and others get travel perks with your company?
It used to happen in the past Pete but not anymore due to regulations concerning dangerous cargo. Almost all cargo flights are carrying something that is considered dangerous, even if it's just batteries in electronic goods.
User avatar
buksida
Moderator
Moderator
Posts: 22701
Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2002 12:25 pm
Location: south of sanity

Re: Effects of Covid-19 on airlines

Post by buksida »

AirAsia to start charging customers for checking in at airport counters
Cash-strapped budget airline AirAsia Group Bhd said on Tuesday it would begin charging customers a fee to check in at airport counters, in part to encourage them to minimise physical contact with staff during the coronavirus pandemic.

Travellers who do not check in via the airline's website, mobile app or airport kiosk will be charged 20 Malaysian ringgit ($4.83) for domestic flights and 30 Malaysian ringgit for international flights, though some exceptions will apply.

AirAsia Group Chief Operations Officer Javed Malik said the fees would help motivate travellers to make use of the airline's investment in digital technology.

"In view of the Covid-19 pandemic, these self-check-in facilities have become very crucial in minimising physical contact between our guests and staff," he said in a statement.

AirAsia last month reported the biggest quarterly loss in its history due to the devastating impact the pandemic has had on travel demand, with revenue down 96%.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/19 ... t-counters
Who is the happier man, he who has braved the storm of life and lived or he who has stayed securely on shore and merely existed? - Hunter S Thompson
User avatar
pharvey
Moderator
Moderator
Posts: 13958
Joined: Sat Aug 29, 2009 10:21 am
Location: Sir Fynwy - God's Country

Re: Effects of Covid-19 on airlines

Post by pharvey »

^ In all fairness, this has been used with European (and other international I guess) budget airlines for quite some time (pre-Covid). Great when it works, but on many occasions, check-in computers don't work..... and big queues at baggage "drop-off" - which obviously detrimental to Social Distancing.

Air Asia check-in at Bangkok was ridiculous last time we went through (admittedly many years ago), so obviously only financially focused. That said, it's going to be the way forward for all airlines in the future IMHO.

:cheers: :cheers:
"Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things" - Yma o Hyd.
User avatar
buksida
Moderator
Moderator
Posts: 22701
Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2002 12:25 pm
Location: south of sanity

Re: Effects of Covid-19 on airlines

Post by buksida »

AIRASIA TO END OPERATIONS IN JAPAN AS VIRUS HITS DEMAND
Malaysian budget airline AirAsia Group will pull out of the Japanese market, as the coronavirus pandemic is likely to keep a lid on demand for air travel, its Japanese unit said Monday.

AirAsia Japan Co. will discontinue domestic routes between Chubu Centrair International Airport in Aichi Prefecture and three locations -- Sapporo, Sendai, and Fukuoka -- and one international route connecting with Taipei on Dec. 5, becoming the first airline operating in Japan to close its business due to the virus outbreak.

Photo taken Oct. 5, 2020, shows aircraft of AirAsia Japan Co., a unit of Malaysian budget airline AirAsia Group, at Chubu airport in Aichi Prefecture, central Japan. AirAsia Japan said the same day it has decided to abolish all its routes, effectively closing down its Japan operations.

...

Global air traffic is not expected to return to levels before the coronavirus pandemic until 2024, according to a recent projection by the International Air Transportation Association.

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020 ... n-dec.html
Who is the happier man, he who has braved the storm of life and lived or he who has stayed securely on shore and merely existed? - Hunter S Thompson
User avatar
PeteC
Moderator
Moderator
Posts: 30184
Joined: Tue Mar 23, 2004 7:58 am
Location: All Blacks training camp

Re: Effects of Covid-19 on airlines

Post by PeteC »

Malaysia Airlines' survival in doubt, says CEO

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/19 ... t-says-ceo

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia Airlines will have to shut down if its lessors decide not to back its latest restructuring plan, the airline’s group chief executive was quoted as saying on Saturday.

A group of leasing companies has rejected the airline’s restructuring plan, bringing the state carrier closer to a showdown over its future, Reuters reported on Friday.

Malaysia Airlines group chief executive officer Izham Ismail said the group would have “no choice but to shut it down” if lessors decide against backing the restructuring plan.

“There are creditors who have agreed already. There are others still resisting, and another group still 50:50,” Izham said in an interview with The Edge weekly newspaper.

“I need to get the 50:50 ones (on board) with those who have agreed. I understand quite a sizeable amount of creditors have agreed.”

Izham said the plan was to restructure the airline’s balance sheet over five years, achieving break-even in 2023 on the assumption that demand in the domestic and Southeast Asian markets returns to 2019 levels by the second and third quarters of 2022.

The plan will also require a fresh cash injection from its major shareholder, the state fund Khazanah Nasional, to help the airline over the next 18 months.

Malaysia Aviation Group (MAG), the airline’s parent company, did not immediately respond to a Reuters email seeking comment.

Lessors claiming to represent 70% of the airplanes and engines leased to the group have called the plan “inappropriate and fatally flawed” and pledged to challenge it, according to people familiar with the matter and a letter from a London law firm seen by Reuters.

However, some leasing companies have endorsed the plan, said one of the sources, declining to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter.

The law firm Clifford Chance, which sent the letter on behalf of the lessors, did not respond to a request for comment.

In an email to Reuters, Malaysia Aviation Group (MAG), the airline’s parent company, said on Saturday it was “pleased” with the level of support it had received from its lessors and was continuing discussions with them.

“(MAG) is confident that there are appropriate legal mechanisms available should that support not be universal,” it said.

“MAG reiterates that the spirit of its restructuring plan is not intended to create unnecessary pain among its creditors but is done in good faith to drive for the long-term survivability of MAG and its dependent value chain of partners.”

The airline group is seeking to implement the restructuring plan through a UK court process, according to sources.

The letter from the law firm further raises the stakes after Reuters reported that the carrier had warned lessors that Khazanah would stop funding the group and force it into a winding-down process if restructuring talks were unsuccessful.

The letter, dated Oct 8, states that if the group “insists on proceeding with the proposed restructuring plan, our clients will use all means at their disposal to challenge it on all possible grounds”.

Izham said the lessors will need to make a decision by Sunday, so that the airline can decide whether to proceed with its restructuring plan or “execute Plan B”.

He said Plan B could involve shifting Malaysia Airlines’ air operator’s certificate (AOC) to a new airline under a different name, or using the certificates of sister airlines Firefly and MASwings.

“If you ask me, is Plan B credible? Of course, it is. We have all the skill sets in place,” he said.
Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed. Source
User avatar
buksida
Moderator
Moderator
Posts: 22701
Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2002 12:25 pm
Location: south of sanity

Re: Effects of Covid-19 on airlines

Post by buksida »

Low-cost flights may get cheaper
Low-cost carriers are ready to lower domestic airfares after the cabinet approved the extension of jet fuel tax reduction.

Santisuk Klongchaiya, chief executive of Thai AirAsia (TAA), Thailand's largest low-cost carrier, said the decision from the government is good news that will help airlines save operation costs and allow them to maintain average airfare prices.

If the government asks carriers to keep lowering airfares in exchange for the extension, TAA will discuss seeking practical solutions with the Transport Ministry.

Mr Santisuk said the average ticket price is quite cheap. The rate per flight is around 900-1,000 baht depending on the destination and booking period.

While TAA can carry on with providing domestic flights by flying 30-40 of 63 jets in its fleet and expects better performance in the last quarter of the year, the carrier still needs the soft loans, which domestic airlines have been requesting for months, he said.

Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha has met airline executives and agreed to allocate 24 billion baht in soft loans to mitigate the impact of the pandemic. The request has yet to be granted.

"We still have weak demand for weekday flights because of the lack of international tourists who would normally fill this void," said Mr Santisuk.

Nuntaporn Komonsittivate, head of commercial operations at Thai Lion Air (TLA), said the extension of the excise tax reduction definitely helps lift the cost burden as jet fuel normally takes up 30% of total operations.

If the government would like airlines to help stimulate the domestic market by reducing airfare, TLA is amenable to considering the requests by assessing a price structure appropriate for actual operation costs, said Ms Nuntaporn.

She said average domestic airfare is 1,200-1,500 baht, which is slightly higher than the pre-pandemic period rate of around 1,000-1,200 baht as the aviation industry has to depend on domestic travellers.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/20 ... et-cheaper
Who is the happier man, he who has braved the storm of life and lived or he who has stayed securely on shore and merely existed? - Hunter S Thompson
User avatar
PeteC
Moderator
Moderator
Posts: 30184
Joined: Tue Mar 23, 2004 7:58 am
Location: All Blacks training camp

Re: Effects of Covid-19 on airlines

Post by PeteC »

Rusty pilots warned as post-pandemic flight risks soar

https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/20356 ... risks-soar

SYDNEY: Regulators, insurers and experts are warning airlines to take extra care when reactivating planes left in extended storage during the Covid-19 pandemic, citing potential pilot rustiness, maintenance errors and even insect nests blocking key sensors.

The unprecedented number of aircraft grounded as coronavirus lockdowns blocked air travel - at one point reaching two-thirds of the global fleet - has created a spike in the number of reported problems as airlines return them to service.

The number of "unstabilised" or poorly handled approaches has risen sharply this year, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). Such mishaps can result in hard landings, runway overshoots or even crashes.

Worried by IATA's data, insurers are questioning airlines about whether they are doing extra pilot training to focus on landings, said Gary Moran, head of Asia aviation at insurance broker Aon PLC.

"They want to know about the circumstances of the training," he said.

Approaches and landings place significant demands on crew for which training and regular experience are seen as vital.

According to aircraft maker Airbus SE, the largest category of fatal accidents can be traced back to the approach to an airport, while the largest number of non-fatal accidents happen during landing.

In May, a Pakistan International Airlines jet crashed after an unstabilised approach, killing 97 people, while 18 died in an Air India Express crash on landing in August, also after an unstabilised approach.

Insects in tubes
Training is not the only concern.

The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has reported an "alarming trend" in the number of reports of unreliable airspeed and altitude readings during the first flight after a plane leaves storage.

In some cases, take-offs had to be abandoned or the aircraft had to return to base.

In most cases, the problem was traced back to undetected insect nests inside the aircraft's pitot tubes, pressure-sensitive sensors that feed key data to an avionics computer.

In June, a Wizz Air Holdings PLC jet halted take-off after the captain found the airspeed was reading zero.

Examination of the plane found insect larvae in one of the pitot tubes, with the aircraft having been parked for 12 weeks before the flight, the UK Air Accidents Investigation Branch said last month. No passengers were on board.

Insects blocking a pitot tube contributed to the 1996 crash of a chartered Birgenair plane in the Dominican Republic that killed all 189 people on board.

Kate Seaton, a Singapore-based aerospace partner at law firm HFW, said flight crews need to be aware of potential defects that might not have been identified properly as planes return to service after an unprecedented grounding.

"We are in new territory - the industry must take steps to mitigate the risks but need to be prepared for the unexpected," she said.

Honest assessment
EASA said last month that issues found after prolonged parking included an engine shutdown in flight after technical problems, fuel system contamination, reduced parking brake pressure and emergency batteries losing their charge.

"We've got people returning to work who are quite rusty, which is a big issue," insurer Aon's Moran said.

Airlines have developed training programmes for pilots re-entering service ranging from theory refreshers to multiple simulator sessions and supervised in-flight checks, depending on the length of absence.

Australia's aviation regulator said on Nov 30 its inspectors would beef up surveillance on Covid-19 related risks involving the re-entry into service, pilot training and safety risk management for the remainder of the year through to June 30, 2021.

Pilots also need to make an honest assessment of their skills and confidence upon returning to work, International Federation of Air Line Pilots' Associations representative Peter Meiresonne said at an industry webinar in October. They may need to turn down offers like shorter landing approaches from air traffic control if they do not feel ready, he said.

"Maybe now is a good time to say, 'We are not able today' or 'Give us a six- or 10-mile lineup rather than a four-mile lineup', which you might accept when you are more proficient and (flight experience is) more recent," he said.
Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed. Source
User avatar
buksida
Moderator
Moderator
Posts: 22701
Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2002 12:25 pm
Location: south of sanity

Re: Effects of Covid-19 on airlines

Post by buksida »

AOT plans for air travel revival next year
It is predicted that international travel demand will revive significantly in the last quarter of 2021 and Airports of Thailand (AOT), which manages six airports including Suvarnabhumi, says it will have business and marketing plans in place to deal with it.

The AOT is preparing to draw up short-term business and marketing plans for 2021-2022 when international flights are expected to resume. According to AOT, the move is based on discussions during a virtual meeting titled "The Route Reconnected" that took place between Nov 30 and Dec 4 to help the aviation industry reshape air services in the wake of the pandemic.

About 80% of domestic flights have resumed, but most Asian countries do not allow international commercial flights to operate. The situation has forced airlines and airports around the world to find new revenue streams in cargo operations and chartered flights.

The virtual event, organised by Informa Ltd, was intended to provide opportunities for the aviation community to meet and forge partnerships. Earlier, the AOT said it would have to find new revenue streams between 2021-2022 when the number of air travellers heading to the country is estimated to be around 55 million and 128 million respectively. In July, the AOT predicted passenger arrivals to drop sharply to 38.81 million this year, down from 141 million last year.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/20 ... -next-year

Where the hell do they pull these stupid numbers from?! Arrivals are going to be bugger all unless they open the country up first - twice the population of Thailand arriving eh, that is a lot of quarantine rooms.
Who is the happier man, he who has braved the storm of life and lived or he who has stayed securely on shore and merely existed? - Hunter S Thompson
Locked