buksida wrote: ↑Sun Dec 13, 2020 12:53 pmThey already do - batteries are now built-in and have a predetermined life cycle and companies like Apple have already been caught purposely slowing devices down with their software updates. This discussion is probably better suited here though viewtopic.php?f=15&t=22034handdrummer wrote: ↑Fri Dec 11, 2020 11:08 pm Maybe the manufacturers will start making phones that fail in a year and the buyers will be have to purchase a new one. Planned obsolescence isn't dead.
[/quote
Got it, thanks.
Major companies and attractions in Thailand that may not survive Covid-19
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handdrummer
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Re: Major companies/industries in Thailand that may not survive Covid-19
Re: Major companies/industries in Thailand that may not survive Covid-19
January tallies 25-month sinkhole
Business sentiment plunged to a 25-month low in January as a fresh wave of infections decimated businesses and daily lives.
The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) said yesterday the TCC Confidence Index, which gauges the sentiment of the business sector and members of the Thai Chamber of Commerce in all provinces nationwide, dropped to 29.8 in January, the lowest since January 2019, from 31.8 in December and 33.7 in November.
Sauwanee Thairungroj, an adviser to the UTCC council, said the main factors were lockdown measures installed in high-risk areas and lingering concerns about a new wave of infections.
According to Ms Sauwanee, business sentiment dropped in all regions, notably in the South, which was ravaged by flooding, and the Northeast, which experienced relatively high household debt and unemployment.
"Business people desperately want the government to contain infections and speed up economic stimulus packages to increase spending and alleviate hardships in the business sector, particularly in tourism," she said.
https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/20 ... h-sinkhole
And these numpties in the govt still maintain the Thai economy is strong ...
Business sentiment plunged to a 25-month low in January as a fresh wave of infections decimated businesses and daily lives.
The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) said yesterday the TCC Confidence Index, which gauges the sentiment of the business sector and members of the Thai Chamber of Commerce in all provinces nationwide, dropped to 29.8 in January, the lowest since January 2019, from 31.8 in December and 33.7 in November.
Sauwanee Thairungroj, an adviser to the UTCC council, said the main factors were lockdown measures installed in high-risk areas and lingering concerns about a new wave of infections.
According to Ms Sauwanee, business sentiment dropped in all regions, notably in the South, which was ravaged by flooding, and the Northeast, which experienced relatively high household debt and unemployment.
"Business people desperately want the government to contain infections and speed up economic stimulus packages to increase spending and alleviate hardships in the business sector, particularly in tourism," she said.
https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/20 ... h-sinkhole
And these numpties in the govt still maintain the Thai economy is strong ...
Who is the happier man, he who has braved the storm of life and lived or he who has stayed securely on shore and merely existed? - Hunter S Thompson
Re: Major companies/industries in Thailand that may not survive Covid-19
Confidence index at 26-month low as recovery slips away
Business confidence fell to a 26-month low in February as the outbreak sapped sentiment from any economic recovery and sparked concerns about the impact on people's daily lives.
The Thai Chamber of Commerce confidence index, a gauge of nationwide business sentiment, dropped from 29.8 in January to 29.6 in February -- the lowest level since January 2019, according to a University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) news briefing yesterday.
Sauwanee Thairungroj, an adviser to the UTCC council, said negative factors include concerns about lockdown measures imposed in high-risk areas, economic woes, political uncertainty, the trade deficit, rising oil prices and the stronger baht.
The country's GDP contracted 6.1% last year, the worst annual performance in 22 years since the Asian financial crisis, she said.
https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/20 ... slips-away
Business confidence fell to a 26-month low in February as the outbreak sapped sentiment from any economic recovery and sparked concerns about the impact on people's daily lives.
The Thai Chamber of Commerce confidence index, a gauge of nationwide business sentiment, dropped from 29.8 in January to 29.6 in February -- the lowest level since January 2019, according to a University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) news briefing yesterday.
Sauwanee Thairungroj, an adviser to the UTCC council, said negative factors include concerns about lockdown measures imposed in high-risk areas, economic woes, political uncertainty, the trade deficit, rising oil prices and the stronger baht.
The country's GDP contracted 6.1% last year, the worst annual performance in 22 years since the Asian financial crisis, she said.
https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/20 ... slips-away
Who is the happier man, he who has braved the storm of life and lived or he who has stayed securely on shore and merely existed? - Hunter S Thompson
Re: Major companies/industries in Thailand that may not survive Covid-19
...and more from this economist. He indicates that another financial 1997 could be right around the corner.
Thai economy unlikely to bounce back
https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opi ... ounce-back
The world is having great economic news. All international economic agencies have upgraded world economic forecasts for 2021. The latest one is the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) who raises global economic growth forecast from 4.2% (December 2020's forecast) to 5.6% (March 2021's forecast). A higher growth prospect is the result of a fast roll-out of Covid-19 vaccination; super-large US economic stimulus package; and accelerated growth of the Chinese economy. The OECD projected that the US economy would grow by 6.5% while the Chinese economy would expand by 7.8% this year. These two giant economies account for 41% of the world economy. Therefore, high growth from these two countries is likely to induce high economic growth in other economies as well.
By the way, China is not the fastest growing economy in 2021 according to the OECD. The winner is India with an amazing 12.6% growth.
Unfortunately, such good news does not apply to all economies depending on each individual economic fundamental. The case in point is Japan. While world average economic growth is 5.6% and average G20's growth is 6.2%, the OECD forecasts that Japan's economy would grow by a mere 2.7%. Despite higher volume of exports to US and China, domestic consumption is too weak to pull the Japanese economy out of the Covid slump. In January, Japan's domestic consumption declined by 6.1% which put a doubt on the new OECD's forecast for the overall growth of 2.7%.
But what about Thailand? The OECD does not make a separate forecast for Thailand as our economic size is only 0.56% of global GDP. But if the OECD does make a forecast for the Thai economy, it will be far from accurate as the organisation does not understand our economic fundamentals. According to my analysis of available data from the Bank of Thailand, the economy in 2021 will not rebound from a negative growth of 6.1% last year and could risk facing a financial crisis like in 1997.
I fully understand that this is a very strong statement and I must have solid proof or evidence or I risk losing credibility as an IMF-trained economist.
The root cause of the 1997 financial crisis was not attacks from currency speculators like many were led to believe, but was from inadequate domestic liquidity. The bubble economy prior to 1997 led to high demand for loans, particularly from the real estate sector. To satisfy loan demand, banks and finance companies borrowed from abroad in dollars and yen as domestic money was not enough. Many institutions borrowed short-term money because it carried much lower interest rates.
At that time Thai banks and finance companies, and, most importantly, the Bank of Thailand, did not realise that foreign borrowing was not limitless. Towards the end of 1996, the borrowing limit was reached causing domestic interest rates to rise. By the last quarter of 1996, Thai references to domestic interest rates (Inter-Bank Borrowing Rates) hit double-digit levels. With such a high cost of borrowing, loans began to default. Foreign creditors of Thai banks and finance companies were uncomfortable with a quickly rising level of bad loans and started to recall loans, particularly short-term loans.
The rest was history.
In 1996, I was working in a Thai finance company and accurately foresaw all these things to happen. Let me say this, that finance company had 500 million dollars in foreign loans but did not lose a single baht from massive currency devaluation. While all financial institutions were struggling to find liquidity during the crisis, that finance company had liquidity surplus and lent money to the Bank of Thailand's FIDF fund.
This year, history is likely to repeat itself. The condition of inadequate domestic liquidity is almost the same as in 1997 but the actors differ. At that time, the culprit was Thai financial institutions who borrowed beyond their capacity. But this time, the culprit is the Thai government borrowing beyond its capacity.
I am fully aware that accelerated government borrowing in recent years comes from good intentions to stimulate economy and to lessen the impact of Covid-19 on the economy. But everything in this world has its limit. The borrowing capacity of governments also has its limit. If not, we will never hear a phrase like "Latin American (government) Debt Crisis" which has haunted Latin American economies for decades.
In the fiscal year 2020, the Thai government borrowed 1.033 trillion baht to cover its deficit and finance Covid-19 relief programmes. Did Thai savers have enough "free" money to buy that 1 trillion baht of government debt? The answer was no. The economy was dead and was not generating much new cash. The debt financing came from foreign money which flowed in (US$30.5 billion, or about 1.2 trillion baht in this fiscal year). With 1.2 trillion baht of foreign money, financing of the deficit was a piece of cake in 2020.
This is an important note. Because liquidity was ample and money was cheap, the government (unwisely) financed its deficit in short-term loans. The amount was 572 billion baht or 55% of the year's financing needs.
Two pre-conditions of a financial crisis -- foreign financing and borrowing short -- were met. Here comes the third one -- reaching a limit.
In the fiscal year 2021, the government will need another 1 trillion baht to cover its deficit and finance Covid relief programmes. The amount is 609 billion baht for the budget deficit, an additional 120 billion baht for revenue shortfall, and 220 billion baht for numerous "Win" programmes. The problem is this year the government cannot rely on foreign inflows. Money is flowing out of Thailand.
Things started to change at the beginning of this year. There were net capital outflows of $1.3 and $2.9 billion in January and February respectively. (Now you know why the Thai baht is falling.) This trend is likely to continue throughout the year as interest rates in the US start rising, investment in other emerging economies looks more promising, and, most importantly, our currency devalues quickly.
Within a few short months, the government will have difficulty financing its humongous debt requirement. In adequate domestic liquidity, borrowing short, and a reversal of capital inflow.
A sure formula for disaster.
Of course, I might not be right like back in 1997. Starting from March, divine beings could induce foreign capital to flow back into Thailand and the 1 trillion baht government financing needs would be easily met just like the previous fiscal year. Why would foreign money flow back to Thailand? Economists like me have no idea. Only divine beings would know.
Chartchai Parasuk, PhD, is a freelance economist.
Thai economy unlikely to bounce back
https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opi ... ounce-back
The world is having great economic news. All international economic agencies have upgraded world economic forecasts for 2021. The latest one is the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) who raises global economic growth forecast from 4.2% (December 2020's forecast) to 5.6% (March 2021's forecast). A higher growth prospect is the result of a fast roll-out of Covid-19 vaccination; super-large US economic stimulus package; and accelerated growth of the Chinese economy. The OECD projected that the US economy would grow by 6.5% while the Chinese economy would expand by 7.8% this year. These two giant economies account for 41% of the world economy. Therefore, high growth from these two countries is likely to induce high economic growth in other economies as well.
By the way, China is not the fastest growing economy in 2021 according to the OECD. The winner is India with an amazing 12.6% growth.
Unfortunately, such good news does not apply to all economies depending on each individual economic fundamental. The case in point is Japan. While world average economic growth is 5.6% and average G20's growth is 6.2%, the OECD forecasts that Japan's economy would grow by a mere 2.7%. Despite higher volume of exports to US and China, domestic consumption is too weak to pull the Japanese economy out of the Covid slump. In January, Japan's domestic consumption declined by 6.1% which put a doubt on the new OECD's forecast for the overall growth of 2.7%.
But what about Thailand? The OECD does not make a separate forecast for Thailand as our economic size is only 0.56% of global GDP. But if the OECD does make a forecast for the Thai economy, it will be far from accurate as the organisation does not understand our economic fundamentals. According to my analysis of available data from the Bank of Thailand, the economy in 2021 will not rebound from a negative growth of 6.1% last year and could risk facing a financial crisis like in 1997.
I fully understand that this is a very strong statement and I must have solid proof or evidence or I risk losing credibility as an IMF-trained economist.
The root cause of the 1997 financial crisis was not attacks from currency speculators like many were led to believe, but was from inadequate domestic liquidity. The bubble economy prior to 1997 led to high demand for loans, particularly from the real estate sector. To satisfy loan demand, banks and finance companies borrowed from abroad in dollars and yen as domestic money was not enough. Many institutions borrowed short-term money because it carried much lower interest rates.
At that time Thai banks and finance companies, and, most importantly, the Bank of Thailand, did not realise that foreign borrowing was not limitless. Towards the end of 1996, the borrowing limit was reached causing domestic interest rates to rise. By the last quarter of 1996, Thai references to domestic interest rates (Inter-Bank Borrowing Rates) hit double-digit levels. With such a high cost of borrowing, loans began to default. Foreign creditors of Thai banks and finance companies were uncomfortable with a quickly rising level of bad loans and started to recall loans, particularly short-term loans.
The rest was history.
In 1996, I was working in a Thai finance company and accurately foresaw all these things to happen. Let me say this, that finance company had 500 million dollars in foreign loans but did not lose a single baht from massive currency devaluation. While all financial institutions were struggling to find liquidity during the crisis, that finance company had liquidity surplus and lent money to the Bank of Thailand's FIDF fund.
This year, history is likely to repeat itself. The condition of inadequate domestic liquidity is almost the same as in 1997 but the actors differ. At that time, the culprit was Thai financial institutions who borrowed beyond their capacity. But this time, the culprit is the Thai government borrowing beyond its capacity.
I am fully aware that accelerated government borrowing in recent years comes from good intentions to stimulate economy and to lessen the impact of Covid-19 on the economy. But everything in this world has its limit. The borrowing capacity of governments also has its limit. If not, we will never hear a phrase like "Latin American (government) Debt Crisis" which has haunted Latin American economies for decades.
In the fiscal year 2020, the Thai government borrowed 1.033 trillion baht to cover its deficit and finance Covid-19 relief programmes. Did Thai savers have enough "free" money to buy that 1 trillion baht of government debt? The answer was no. The economy was dead and was not generating much new cash. The debt financing came from foreign money which flowed in (US$30.5 billion, or about 1.2 trillion baht in this fiscal year). With 1.2 trillion baht of foreign money, financing of the deficit was a piece of cake in 2020.
This is an important note. Because liquidity was ample and money was cheap, the government (unwisely) financed its deficit in short-term loans. The amount was 572 billion baht or 55% of the year's financing needs.
Two pre-conditions of a financial crisis -- foreign financing and borrowing short -- were met. Here comes the third one -- reaching a limit.
In the fiscal year 2021, the government will need another 1 trillion baht to cover its deficit and finance Covid relief programmes. The amount is 609 billion baht for the budget deficit, an additional 120 billion baht for revenue shortfall, and 220 billion baht for numerous "Win" programmes. The problem is this year the government cannot rely on foreign inflows. Money is flowing out of Thailand.
Things started to change at the beginning of this year. There were net capital outflows of $1.3 and $2.9 billion in January and February respectively. (Now you know why the Thai baht is falling.) This trend is likely to continue throughout the year as interest rates in the US start rising, investment in other emerging economies looks more promising, and, most importantly, our currency devalues quickly.
Within a few short months, the government will have difficulty financing its humongous debt requirement. In adequate domestic liquidity, borrowing short, and a reversal of capital inflow.
A sure formula for disaster.
Of course, I might not be right like back in 1997. Starting from March, divine beings could induce foreign capital to flow back into Thailand and the 1 trillion baht government financing needs would be easily met just like the previous fiscal year. Why would foreign money flow back to Thailand? Economists like me have no idea. Only divine beings would know.
Chartchai Parasuk, PhD, is a freelance economist.
Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed. Source
Re: Major companies/industries in Thailand that may not survive Covid-19
Meanwhile, the bankers, billionaires, and politicians say everything is rosy.
Well ... I guess it still is for them.
Well ... I guess it still is for them.
Who is the happier man, he who has braved the storm of life and lived or he who has stayed securely on shore and merely existed? - Hunter S Thompson
Re: Major companies/industries in Thailand that may not survive Covid-19
As a selfish expat, that would fare good for those of us living on foreign currency.risk facing a financial crisis like in 1997.
Meanwhile the GBP to THB hits 43, the highest since the middle of 2018.
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handdrummer
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Re: Major companies/industries in Thailand that may not survive Covid-19
The prices of goods will rise and the increased rates won't buy any more than the previous rates. The only items that will impacted positively will be fixed costs like rent, mortgages and ongoing payments. As long as you don't go shopping all will be well.
Re: Major companies/industries in Thailand that may not survive Covid-19
The price of imported goods certainly. Locally produced products will maintain their price in thai baht with maybe a small rise but to expats on foreign income, the price difference could be substantial. I was here before and after the crash. Before the crash I was getting around 38 to the pound. After it rocketed to over 90 settling back to 70+ for quite some time.
No massive price increases.
No massive price increases.
Re: Major companies/industries in Thailand that may not survive Covid-19
Expats may benefit from a currency collapse, but they won't benefit from the increase in crime targeting them, and more xenophobia from the junta that doesn't really want them there in the first place. The world in 1997 was very different from the one in 2021, be careful what you wish for.
Who is the happier man, he who has braved the storm of life and lived or he who has stayed securely on shore and merely existed? - Hunter S Thompson
Re: Major companies/industries in Thailand that may not survive Covid-19
I'm not sure the junta will survive any impending crash. I think they will cut and run. Leave the mess to others to clear up.buksida wrote: ↑Sat Mar 20, 2021 11:43 am Expats may benefit from a currency collapse, but they won't benefit from the increase in crime targeting them, and more xenophobia from the junta that doesn't really want them there in the first place. The world in 1997 was very different from the one in 2021, be careful what you wish for.
Talk is cheap
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handdrummer
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Re: Major companies/industries in Thailand that may not survive Covid-19
Where will they run to?caller wrote: ↑Sat Mar 20, 2021 10:11 pmI'm not sure the junta will survive any impending crash. I think they will cut and run. Leave the mess to others to clear up.buksida wrote: ↑Sat Mar 20, 2021 11:43 am Expats may benefit from a currency collapse, but they won't benefit from the increase in crime targeting them, and more xenophobia from the junta that doesn't really want them there in the first place. The world in 1997 was very different from the one in 2021, be careful what you wish for.
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handdrummer
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Re: Major companies/industries in Thailand that may not survive Covid-19
Re: Major companies/industries in Thailand that may not survive Covid-19
Not a major company, but a major attraction for Thais, expats and tourists for a long time. 
Ratchada night market to possibly close for good
https://thethaiger.com/news/national/ba ... e-for-good
It has recently been reported that the immensely popular Ratchada night market/AKA the Train market located in Bangkok, will possibly close for good.
The train market, which enjoyed patronage from both farangs/and Thais alike was previously closed due to restrictions with the goal of curbing Covid infections. Now, however, it seems the market will close permanently. Vendors have already reportedly been told to pack up shop and get out within 14 days.
The night market had been temporarily closed due to restrictions aimed at preventing the spread of COVID-19. A birds-eye view of the market projected a dazzling spectacle of multicoloured stalls like a vibrant, illuminated quilt. It was a place to do some shopping, get dinner, or meet people for the first time.
One Facebook user, “Ad Lump“, has ostensibly confirmed this closure. The post has thousands of likes, comments, and shares. Many commenters are selling their wares or commemorating the good times they had at the market. The post says the market is closing because Covid complications proved too much for the owner to handle.
According to K@pook!, bar owners were consulted who seemingly also confirmed that the market is indeed closing for good. Mothership.sg, A Singaporean news source also claims the market is set to close.
To avoid confusion/panic, it should be noted that there has been no official announcement regarding the market’s closure, including on the “Train Night Market Ratchada: Train Night Market Ratchada” Facebook.
The market was set to reopen on August 1.
- 28716256284_dcfeda9398_c-e1627722328617.jpg (86.88 KiB) Viewed 1932 times
Ratchada night market to possibly close for good
https://thethaiger.com/news/national/ba ... e-for-good
It has recently been reported that the immensely popular Ratchada night market/AKA the Train market located in Bangkok, will possibly close for good.
The train market, which enjoyed patronage from both farangs/and Thais alike was previously closed due to restrictions with the goal of curbing Covid infections. Now, however, it seems the market will close permanently. Vendors have already reportedly been told to pack up shop and get out within 14 days.
The night market had been temporarily closed due to restrictions aimed at preventing the spread of COVID-19. A birds-eye view of the market projected a dazzling spectacle of multicoloured stalls like a vibrant, illuminated quilt. It was a place to do some shopping, get dinner, or meet people for the first time.
One Facebook user, “Ad Lump“, has ostensibly confirmed this closure. The post has thousands of likes, comments, and shares. Many commenters are selling their wares or commemorating the good times they had at the market. The post says the market is closing because Covid complications proved too much for the owner to handle.
According to K@pook!, bar owners were consulted who seemingly also confirmed that the market is indeed closing for good. Mothership.sg, A Singaporean news source also claims the market is set to close.
To avoid confusion/panic, it should be noted that there has been no official announcement regarding the market’s closure, including on the “Train Night Market Ratchada: Train Night Market Ratchada” Facebook.
The market was set to reopen on August 1.
Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed. Source
Re: Major companies and attractions in Thailand that may not survive Covid-19
I wouldn't be surprised if Chatuchak went the same way as well. Last time I went, when things seemed on the mend, or at least no worse - maybe January - hardly anything was open and hardly anyone was there. I mainly visit section 7 for art and at least half the shops in that section were closed. We did buy some plants without having to enter the labyrinth of festering covered walkways (and they're doing great). But the market has been shut or deserted since.
Talk is cheap