thai baht where is it going

[sargeant]

This is mainly for guess and a serious question

In the last couple of weeks i have been asked this question and i honestly dont have a clue
i saw the previous thai finance minister on bloomberg and he said if the thai baht went below 35 to the dollar it was overvalued
Its gone below
In the present climate i dont understand that
one lady asked could there be a crssh same as 1997/8
i dont know says i
could you give me your views you obviously have a better idea than me cos i aint got one
i wont hold you to them but whats your best bet short and long term

[Wanderlust]

sargeant,
Obviously I am not Guess but I think it's a case of a weak dollar rather than a strong baht, and I personally believe that the dollar is getting much closer to it's real level now than it has been for quite some time. The pound and the Euro have stayed around the same level against the baht for several months, even years now, while they are also buying more dollars now. I thought there was another thread about this but I cannot find it right now. The fact that it is so strong against the dollar certainly doesn't particularly help the Thai exports, but I imagine the Bank of Thailand is buying up dollars as quick as they can! If you have the financial clout to make it worth your while, then you could make a short term killing (6 months to a year) by buying dollars with your baht, and then selling them again when the rate changes - however it is a risk and should only be taken on if you have sufficient funds to cope with the possibility of it going pear shaped.

[lomuamart]

I always try to bank on about 67B to the pound.
It has been as low as 40 and as high as 90, just since I've been here.
Forget the dollar, the Thai Baht is floated correctly now. It's a fair price.

[sargeant]

Thanks wanderlust so do i take it the pound should stay pretty steady for quite a while cos the peops asking are brits and they are coming first long timers
Apparently one of them heard his mothers,auntys cousin fifth removed talking so he asked me he might as well have asked his weetabix

ill wait for guesses input and hopefully a few others before i send them an email

[Guess]

Anybody who can predict a crash and put their money where their mouth is would become a multi billionaire overnight.

THe US dollar is undervalue at the moment due to the various shit they have gotten themselves into around the world and the fact that they still have never truly recovered from the 1997 slump that did not affect the UK. A cheap dollar is one way of getting exports up and reduce balance of payment which in itself is a cost.

The UK Pound and the Uro on the other hand are slightly overvalued.

The rule of thumb over the last ten years that the analists say is a healthy equilibrium is 65 baht to 1 PST and 1.65 USD to 1 PST. This makes the USD at slightly under 40 dollars. My best guess is that it wil return to that value in about 18 months. So put savings in a dollar account if you can. In the same period but probably slightly longer the Pound and the Euro will fall slightly back to equilibrium. So dont keep your savings in EU accounts. This rationale probablay applies to the Danish and Swedish Kroners with Norway Iceland and Switxerland more or less following the trend.

As for the Baht. The nation has just been through some minor political turmoil but it did not bother the money men and investment in Thailand continues. The money men take greta pains to insure their investments and usually get it right at least for the foreseeable future. I see the Baht gradually stengthening slightly to 65 to the PST along with the PST devaluing very sliughtly.

I do not believe that for 2 years we will see more than a 10% shift in any three of the currencies.

If you go to Fiusherman's Wharf in San Francisco in three years time and see me strumming a cheap guitar with a homeless signe hanging round my neck you can assume that I was wrong. You are then permitted to drop five bucks into my hat and call me a stupid jerk so long as you end it with Sir.

So get the words right. "Hello Guess take this five dollars and get yourself some breakfast you supid jerk SIR".

Hope this helps your investment decision making.




http://www.x-rates.com/

[Guess]

I always try to bank on about 67B to the pound.
It has been as low as 40 and as high as 90, just since I've been here.
Forget the dollar, the Thai Baht is floated correctly now. It's a fair price.

Lomu,

Have you got one of these Belgian keyboards aswell?

Don't foget the USD buy it. Going cheap now ony 36 baht each. It may go down to 35 but don't hold your breath. If it does, buy loads.

[STEVE G]

BANGKOK, Nov 4 (TNA) - The Thai baht which has been strengthening over the past two weeks due to continued foreign capital inflows is expected to remain strong next week, according to a report issued by Kasikorn Research Centre.

The report said the baht closed at Bt36.67 against the dollar compared to Bt36.87 late last week--which was the highest in more than seven years due in part to an intervention by the Bank of Thailand attempting to put the brake on the strenghtening baht.

The baht also became stronger against the dollar this week following continued capital inflows while the dollar weakened following a poor performance of the US economy, it said.

The report said the baht is expected to move within the range of Bt36.40-36.80 per dollar next week on continued foreign capital inflows as traders keep a close watch on US employment data for October--which could assist the dollar to become strong, but only on the short-term.

Traders are also awaiting US trade figures for September to be released next week and the outcome of the British central bank meeting to be held Wednesday and Thursday in which it might raise interest rate and could pressure on the dollar against key currencies, the report said.

Economists have stated that a stronger baht will hurt exporters, whose income will be diluted when dollar income is converted to a lower amount of baht. (TNA)-E111

[fremdulo]

The baht seems unbelievably strong against many currencies, 6% in 120 days for many, how is that possible considering recent events.

http://www.x-rates.com/d/THB/table.html

Check 120 day graphs, nearly all are falling, only ones not affected seem to be those that have little or nothing to do with LOS. It all looks a bit fishy to me.

[sargeant]

Guess as i asked you in the main ill thank you for what you say the bit that stood out to me was the 10% shift sorry if im thick but does that mean 5% up to 5% down or 10 each way i would guess 5 up 5 down but im open to instruction but that is just the sort of answer i was looking for

Lomu its been as low as 27 in my time but i arrived here and placed my cash stash in the bank on the day it hit 93 if i had waited 3 more hours instead i got 87 to the quid

Thanks fremdulo but charts for me hellooo
ill stick with guess lomu steve g and wanderlust they all seem in about the same place
Have a good night tonight sorry cant be there on jankers mrs sarge she heap um pleased with umwah from last sortee into beer territory

[lomuamart]

Crikey,
27 was low. When was that?
90'ish was here before, but the economy couldn't handle it.
Hence, around 65ish is correct.
Er....?

[Big Boy]

It dropped to 32 when I was here in 1992.

[lomuamart]

True BB,
It was about 40 when I first came to HH in 1989.
However, I just feel that a rate of 65ish is correct for this country. If it ever dropped to the 40 level, I'd be up and gone. Totally overinflated at that value.
And it is how an economy is perceived - most importantly. It's called confidence etc etc.
Did everyone note how the Baht didn't crash after the coup?

[kiwi P]

1 us ...35.47 baht,
5-20us... 35.85 baht
50-100us... 36.33..
.thats what i just got off the net,,Bangkok Bank.
In 87 was buying 45 baht by memory..

[Guess]

was the 10% shift sorry if im thick but does that mean 5% up to 5% down or 10 each way i would guess 5 up 5 down but im open to instruction but that is just the sort of answer i was looking for

What I really meant was a 10% differential between the most upwardly moving of the three against the most downwardly moving. So if the Dollar rose by 5% against the PST and the Baht fell by 5% against the PST that would be the most I would expect. However that was pretty much finger in the air science based on world events and history.

The key that has been mentioned by me regarding the dollar but apllies equally but opposite to in the case of the Baht is exports. The cheap dollar enables the US to export at more competetive rates. The opposite applies for a more expensive Baht. Thailand is highly reliant on exports so economy can be affected by just a few points.

Generally though on a global level the economists and national banks seem to be learning all the time by past mistakes right back from the Great Depression of the US up until the recent global meltdown (which coincidentally started in Thailand in 1997).

I can not see any situation likely to occur in the next few years that would cause any massive change in the west of the east. The bits in the middle and Africa may be a different story but as has already been said they would have little effect on Thailand.

If the Nigerian economy colllapsed completely, Bill Gates could prop it up on the interest from his chequing account.

[Guess]

1 us ...35.47 baht,
5-20us... 35.85 baht
50-100us... 36.33..
.thats what i just got off the net,,Bangkok Bank.
In 87 was buying 45 baht by memory..

And if I remeber correctly that was when the dollar was very strong and almost reached parity with PST. I may be wrong about that. People I know who came her between ten and fifteen years ago have stated 40 to 50 Baht to 1 PST. That could tie in. 1989 was the year of the UK real estate crash.


Were all you guys earlier that were mentioning 27 and up all referring to UK or US bucks?