Instigating Change

[Spitfire]

Think this belongs here as it's discussion, admitedly hypothetical not actual news, but related.

We hear so much about the turmoil going on in the political scene at the moment and have heard about the government's failings, Taksin still in charge of the PPP, anti-government protests etc. There is basically, probably along with a few other factors, a massive problem for any realistic change to occure.

That is, to sweep away the residual presence of the recent past and to move onto greener pastures, the political parties/other forces that do not like how it is now must address the fact of were all the government's support comes from, which is, the 'rural' vote.

The PPP and Taksin are still revelent because in the eyes of the 'rural' vote, they can do no wrong as they(rural Thailand) have(in their eyes) never been helped by anyone before. Life is harsh in these places as we all know.

What any aspiring strewd Thai politician should be thinking about is how to 'steal' that support, and it's quite possible to do by just helping them. Instead of just looking at Bangkok all the time, look to the whole country.

Real power is not possible to aquire here without the support of the 'rural' vote, even if Bangkok is with you.

That's why we have this mess at the moment. As soon as you have a "democratic" election, then whoever snatches the 'rural' vote often prevails.

This is why Taksin and the PPP remain powerful to this day and there is this impasse lingering on.

This is just a point-of-view that occurred to me and I'm sure people will have stuff to add.

[sargeant]

quote
"The PPP and Taksin are still revelent because in the eyes of the 'rural' vote, they can do no wrong as they(rural Thailand) have(in their eyes) never been helped by anyone before."

Exactely what i have been saying for yonks

empasis on "never been helped by anyone before."

The problem is that block of voters has been woken up and i cannot see them going back in the box by force or by PAD

quote
"What any aspiring strewd Thai politician should be thinking about is how to 'steal' that support, and it's quite possible to do by just helping them."

I personally dont care who that is as long as they do help them

[Guess]

.....................
That's why we have this mess at the moment. As soon as you have a "democratic" election, then whoever snatches the 'rural' vote often prevails.

It is an interesting perception. Another way of looking at it is that it is Bangkok who decide. Chiang Mai were supporters of Thaksin from the outset. He comes from the region and has a similar cultural background. Xenophobia exists even between different Thai peoples.

The south is Democrat and has been since before Thaksin came on the scene. This leaves the poor north east and the not so poor central Chao Prayha valley before we consider Bangkok and the surrounds. The TRT party paid for Isan votes at voter level and put vast sums into the central valley to ensure they tipped the balance although they were more or less guaranteed to win all those areas except those dominated by the Chart Party (Suphan Buri area).

This leaves the 12 million registered voters in Bangkok. Bangkok also has a higher turn out rate than most regions so there are at least 5 million votes to be had. The financial and business sectors in Bangkok supported TRT because Thaksin spoke their language and they had "never had it so good" so why rock the boat.

I think most of that was true when Thaksin was voted in both times. The PPP then enter the scene. Those in the know realised this was TRT mark 2 and stayed with their support. The South still remained Democrat. Samak, however did not have the clout or track record that Thaksin had. In fact the opposite he had got a serious human rights blot on his character.

So now I think we have gone full circle and it is right to say that the rural vote is key. Isan does not seem to be impressed anymore. The democrats are stronger than ever and with the higher cost of living and the increased difficulty of doing business in Thailand the PPP can not even guarantee the business vote any more.

So instead of waiting until the democratic process has completed an election phase and then protesting about the elected party, the opponents of TRT/PPP/Thaksin should go about presenting themselves to the rural community in time for the next election.

Someone should point out that what has happened over the last three years is a far cry from "a western style democracy." I can see more similarities to early 20th century Russia.

[Spitfire]

Good stuff Guess, just wondering why governments are made outside Bangkok but are brought down by those inside the capital.

Or should I just defer to my cynicism.

[sandman67]

before we all start barking about "western style democracy" try remembering that it has actually only really meant anything like "democracy" in the west for about 80 years or less. Until women (in the UK) and minorities (in the USA "fully" ie the southern states) were given free franchise then we didnt have democracy either. So ours arent much older than Thailands.....we just had a few hundred years of partial democracy first to practice with. They have a lot of catching up to do....at the moment they seem to be having the "rotten borough" problems....

What we can say is that imposing "democracy in a box" here hasnt worked, and wont in the forseeable.

PAD makes some good points. One of them is that the "rural" vote is over represented by numbers of MPs. "Rural" areas, with much lower population densities, have at present more MPs per head of population than urban areas...which is daft. One of PADs ideas is to base the number of MPs on population/electoral density so parliament is representative.

PAD propose a national government take control whilst a debate is had as to how to change politics here so it works. They want an open forum where ideas can be discussed and changes implemented to get Thailand out of the political mire it is in. Even ex politicians and big business are now swinging behind this idea.

Another idea I mooted in another thread was applying draconian electoral law via an independent judicial body with full investigatory and enforcement powers. Weed out both corrupt politicians and corrupt voters...total bans for politicians, disenfranchisement for corrupt voters. Work on the principal that political corruption = treason.

Problem is I see Thai culture and democracy as largely incompatible, and remain unconvinced its ever going to work here....at least in my lifetime. Hopefully my kids will one day see an "honest parliament"....i suppose it all comes down to whether they sell their votes or not.

[Guess]

Good stuff Guess, just wondering why governments are made outside Bangkok but are brought down by those inside the capital.

My take on that one is double sided.

Bangkok is a central position so can get people attending from all over Thailand in addition to the 20 million on the doorstep. I am not sure what the breakdown is but Sonthi himself is from Sukhothai and his lady sidekick is from Chantaburi in SE Thailand. WE have had roadblocks checking northbound traffic here a few times apparently looking for demonstrators coming from the south.

Secondly, most of the original protesters came from the educated Thai middle classes. For many reasons they live mainly in Bangkok.

Of course the fact that the rally is held in Bangkok means that there will be many more Bangkokney's than anybody else.

That's just my perception of the situation. With a serious lack of statistics it is difficult to say where most of the opposition comes from but I reckon now that it is spread all over Thailand but stronger in general the further south that you go.

[Spitfire]

Well Guess and Sm67, good stuff as always.

[STEVE G]

Here's an article on the subject of democracy in the region:http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/ ... y/National