From the Bangkok Post today.
A military coup may be unavoidable if Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra refuses to budge and political instability persists much longer, said Panlop Pinmanee, deputy chief of the Internal Security Operations Command (Isoc).
Gen Panlop predicted political turmoil if Mr Thaksin clings to his seat. Uncontrollable tension could necessitate a military revolt to restore national calm, he said.
Gen Panlop was a key figure in Class 7 of the Chulachomklao Royal Military Academy, whose young turks staged an abortive coup in 1981. A coup will be motivated not by the desire to overthrow Mr Thaksin or his opponents, said Gen Panlop.
He believed the soldiers would not want to see protracted turmoil threaten national security.
The coup may not happen any time soon. "Certainly not today," the general said, commenting on the likelihood of the anti-Thaksin rally at Sanam Luang providing the pretext for a revolt.
Gen Panlop said, however, that a coup would not be easy to organise considering that Mr Thaksin's friends in the armed forces almost monopolise the power to authorise military deployment.
"When the country is in a shambles, I trust the soldiers will act professionally and not become the personal protector of the prime minister or the government," he said.
The Isoc deputy commander praised army chief Sonthi Boonyaratglin for serving the country well, although some are wondering where his loyalty lies.
A source, however, said Gen Sonthi has been perceived as taking Mr Thaksin's side. He is often seen at social gatherings organised in Mr Thaksin's honour and plays golf with the prime minister. He and other armed forces leaders reportedly made a pact to meet Mr Thaksin regularly. But a source in the armed forces said that even if Gen Sonthi agreed to a "military intervention" the success of a coup could not be guaranteed.
The army units backing him are special warfare soldiers, most of whom have now been redeployed as reinforcements fighting separatist insurgents in the deep South.
The power to mobilise personnel is primarily in the hands of Mr Thaksin's classmates at the Armed Forces Preparatory School, the source said.
"There's no way Gen Sonthi's strength alone will get the job done," he said.
None of the close aides of Privy Council chairman Prem Tinsulanonda are in key military positions able to call the rank and file to arms. Gen Panlop said Mr Thaksin should stand down because there have been too many questions raised about his suitability as leader.
Military coup possible
Military coup possible
I intend to live forever - so far so good.
Thailand on the precipice
Thailand faces a historic choice that will speak volumes about the direction of its young and still fragile democracy. But it could herald the return of the military to the forefront of the country's political process - meaning reform will be further delayed.
Full Story
'Get out' ringing in Thaksin's ears
Students, trade unionists and teachers are mingling with peasants, Buddhist fundamentalists and middle-class families with their portable kitchens at rallies calling for the resignation of Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. "Thaksin! - Get out!" is their mantra. But it's falling on deaf ears, for now.
Full Story
Thailand faces a historic choice that will speak volumes about the direction of its young and still fragile democracy. But it could herald the return of the military to the forefront of the country's political process - meaning reform will be further delayed.
Full Story
'Get out' ringing in Thaksin's ears
Students, trade unionists and teachers are mingling with peasants, Buddhist fundamentalists and middle-class families with their portable kitchens at rallies calling for the resignation of Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. "Thaksin! - Get out!" is their mantra. But it's falling on deaf ears, for now.
Full Story
Re: Military coup possible
Almost comical, if it were not so worrying, that such a thing could be discussed so matter-of-factly.Norseman wrote:The coup may not happen any time soon. "Certainly not today," the general said, commenting on the likelihood of the anti-Thaksin rally at Sanam Luang providing the pretext for a revolt.
Gen Panlop said, however, that a coup would not be easy to organise considering that Mr Thaksin's friends in the armed forces almost monopolise the power to authorise military deployment.
Poor to have final say on Thaksin
The political struggle in Thailand gained momentum last week as the embattled Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's family sale of Shin Corp further enraged and galvanized his opposition. Thaksin announced Friday that he would dissolve parliament, choosing April 2 for an election in which he seeks a renewed mandate.
He may get just that. Only a year ago Thaksin became the first Thai prime minister re-elected to a second term, sailing into office on a landslide. To think now only a year on that a campaign could be mounted to defeat him and his largely popular Thai Rak Thai (Thai Love Thai) party may be just wishful thinking.
Opposition leaders are correct in their assessment that the move by the embattled premier to call snap elections is a shrewd one. Based upon his big win only a year ago and the demographic that actually supports Thaksin, unseating the premier in an election only a month away will be a big ask.
The problem lies not in the activists, protesters, businessmen, educators and others who made it out to Sunday's rally in Bangkok in their tens of thousands seeking the premier's ouster; these people represent a cross-section of the capital's population.
From factory workers and farmers who have gone to Bangkok for a better life to media tycoons and political stalwarts, many are educated and understand the problems Thailand faces, and are working for change. The problem lies outside the city.
It is in Thailand's poverty-stricken farmlands and villages where Thaksin and Thai Rak Thai enjoy most of their support. Sadly, many rural Thais are dirt poor and have not benefited from Thailand's advancing economy. This is compounded by poor education, but they're in the majority and can participate in the election. These people often do not fully understand the issues at hand or what is really at stake and unfortunately they are routinely exploited by corrupt politicians who practice rampant vote buying.
It is not uncommon for a candidate to show up in a village, make a few cursory comments about the party and then proceed to hand out 100 baht (about HK$20) notes in exchange for a promise to vote.
As small as this amount may seem, to rural Thais it's a significant sum and enough to buy a few meals.
The challenge for the opposition then is to take the stories of corruption, cronyism and alleged multimillion dollar tax avoidance relating to the sale of a chunk of Thaksin family shares in Shin Corp to Singapore's Temasek to the people of rural Thailand.
The challenge is to convince the rural poor that a few more years of Thaksin allegedly profiteering from his leadership of their country does nothing to serve them or the greater good of Thailand and the challenge is to help them understand the value of their votes.
Media tycoon Sondhi Limthongkul has been a fierce critic of Thaksin and has helped lead the charge against him.
Sondhi will have to make full use of his media empire to tell the masses in the countryside what those in Bangkok already know.
Source: Hong Kong Standard
The political struggle in Thailand gained momentum last week as the embattled Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's family sale of Shin Corp further enraged and galvanized his opposition. Thaksin announced Friday that he would dissolve parliament, choosing April 2 for an election in which he seeks a renewed mandate.
He may get just that. Only a year ago Thaksin became the first Thai prime minister re-elected to a second term, sailing into office on a landslide. To think now only a year on that a campaign could be mounted to defeat him and his largely popular Thai Rak Thai (Thai Love Thai) party may be just wishful thinking.
Opposition leaders are correct in their assessment that the move by the embattled premier to call snap elections is a shrewd one. Based upon his big win only a year ago and the demographic that actually supports Thaksin, unseating the premier in an election only a month away will be a big ask.
The problem lies not in the activists, protesters, businessmen, educators and others who made it out to Sunday's rally in Bangkok in their tens of thousands seeking the premier's ouster; these people represent a cross-section of the capital's population.
From factory workers and farmers who have gone to Bangkok for a better life to media tycoons and political stalwarts, many are educated and understand the problems Thailand faces, and are working for change. The problem lies outside the city.
It is in Thailand's poverty-stricken farmlands and villages where Thaksin and Thai Rak Thai enjoy most of their support. Sadly, many rural Thais are dirt poor and have not benefited from Thailand's advancing economy. This is compounded by poor education, but they're in the majority and can participate in the election. These people often do not fully understand the issues at hand or what is really at stake and unfortunately they are routinely exploited by corrupt politicians who practice rampant vote buying.
It is not uncommon for a candidate to show up in a village, make a few cursory comments about the party and then proceed to hand out 100 baht (about HK$20) notes in exchange for a promise to vote.
As small as this amount may seem, to rural Thais it's a significant sum and enough to buy a few meals.
The challenge for the opposition then is to take the stories of corruption, cronyism and alleged multimillion dollar tax avoidance relating to the sale of a chunk of Thaksin family shares in Shin Corp to Singapore's Temasek to the people of rural Thailand.
The challenge is to convince the rural poor that a few more years of Thaksin allegedly profiteering from his leadership of their country does nothing to serve them or the greater good of Thailand and the challenge is to help them understand the value of their votes.
Media tycoon Sondhi Limthongkul has been a fierce critic of Thaksin and has helped lead the charge against him.
Sondhi will have to make full use of his media empire to tell the masses in the countryside what those in Bangkok already know.
Source: Hong Kong Standard
Because of the language most of us must rely on second hand information about Thai politics. (Thai newspapers in english or farang newspapers).
I think the journalist, Todd W John, is really spot on in buksida's article.
He give a very good analysis of the situation and I think he's got a great understanding of the political situation in Thailand.
I wish that this article could be written in thai and distributed for free in rural Thailand. (Isaan).
I think the journalist, Todd W John, is really spot on in buksida's article.
He give a very good analysis of the situation and I think he's got a great understanding of the political situation in Thailand.
I wish that this article could be written in thai and distributed for free in rural Thailand. (Isaan).
I intend to live forever - so far so good.