The unofficial farang election poll

[sandman67]

A variant on option 3

PT have set themselves up with three weaknesses, any of which can collapse their government:

1) Thaksin has openly been observed both funding and steering the party. The party has said it acts on his orders. He is banned so this could result in dissolution. He also funds them, contrary to Thai party law (no funding from overseas sources). Again this could result in dissolution. The Yellows have already initiated actions in both these reguards (todays papers).

2) Yingyang Toxin perjured herself very clearly in the Toxin asset case. No amount of sweet smiling and empty parroting of soundbite phrases can get her off that. The DSI are now investigating, and the complaint has been mirrored to the OAG, NACC and Securities Comission..... shes in the doo doo.

3) The PT have now morphed their impartial amnesty into very partial guilt panels that are very clearly designed to pardon the rioters and hammer the government and military. (Last weeks papers). Combine those with the threatened return of The Liar King in December and you have more street protests and riots. Cue military intervention to calm things down and bye bye PT.

other loose cannon factors:

The EC can and may well take action against PT for the constant harassment and disruption the reds have comitted whenever a Dem goes out campaigning. Abba had to close down a rally early last week....the EC were watching.

The Dems this week are rallying at Ratch Intersection....red central. You dont really think the reds will let them do that without causing mass trouble? Again material for an EC blanket red card for PT.

The EC have as always been inundated with complaints of electoral malfeasance. My guess is as last time it is three PTs for every one Dem/other party related complaint. Face it...the PT couldnt run a clean campaign if it tried. Its northern base is too mired in the bung for a vote habit.

The smaller key coalition parties may or may not decide to go with PT and form a coalition. They could equally just refuse to work with the PT, and in that case the Dems could form and run a minority coalition as happens in the Israeli parliament. (Despite being PM Nettenyahu only controls 27% of the parliament through his own party). In power PT treated the smaller parties like lap dogs...and they have already said the BJT are not welcome. The Dems were a lot more generous with sharing out the seats on Cabinet and in Ministries.

SO

My guess..... either PT win and form a coalition that is eventually collapsed by military intervention or judicial disollution, especially should Toxin return as promised....

or the PT win a small majority but are unable to form a coalition so end up as majority opposition with a minority Dem coalition in power.

Either way more trouble, and almost certainly another ruined high season for HH.

My money is on a military intervention and caretaker government before the year is out, with a side bet on judicial disollution of PT for any and/or all of the above factors. Listing a pack of quasi Maoist terrorists as party list MPs makes the intentions of PT very very clear...even to the shortsighted Thai military. PT dont want reconciliation, they want revenge.

It would be nice to be optomistic, but that would make me as blind and dumb as the dimwits who fall for any of the tripe mouthed by that Palinesque sockpuppet parrot Yingyang Toxin.

[dozer]

"My guess..... either PT win and form a coalition that is eventually collapsed by military intervention or judicial disollution, especially should Toxin return as promised...."

sandman,

It’s incorrect to suggest that there will be any kind of military intervention, after all how can they intervene into a situation where they already are the major player.

[bcrglobal]

Here's my option:

PT win about +-40% of the seats, with Democrats winning +-30%. The army steps in and starts negotiating with the smaller parties (A combination of carrots and sticks) to keep the Democrats in power. The Democrats keep power with a coalition government composed of +-57% of the seats. However Abbhisit is no longer a relatively clean PM due to the inducements offered to the smaller parties, and leads a more corrupt government--corrupt to a point of outdoing Thaksin's corruption efforts.

The Red Shirts will be upset about winning the biggest bloc in the election, but denied power. They will launch more protests, yet again, and will shut down central Bangkok, yet again.

In 18 months to 2 years we're back at the starting blocks again with a new election planned.

[JD]

bcrglobal - That is pretty much as I see things going.

[The understudy]

JD and brcglobal

Agreeing with your statement The understudy is as well.

It's all orchistradet by the POwers that be!

Your's The understudy

[buksida]

The military are now claiming no coup regardless of the outcome so lets hope 65% of you that voted 3 are wrong!

This article from CNNGo makes for an amusing Friday read leading into the election weekend:

CNNGo: Top 10 strange moments of Thailand's 2011 general election

Yingyang is by far the most attractive looking candidate in the running, Chuwit the most entertaining, Paradorn the most stupid, but the PAD animal posters probably portray the truest message.

[STEVE G]

PT will win but the military will kick them out again resulting in two years of mickey mouse leadership and generals getting fatter.

Yes, it seems like the most likely result now will be PT winning but the military not kicking them out if they're allowed to grow fatter without actually having to bother trying to run the country.
It might be the best option as at least with that result you get no coup, no violent demonstrations in Bangkok and no war with Cambodia.

[Korkenzieher]

Also went No.3.

Unfortunately it seems that the establisment in this country is only in favour of democracy, if it means that they get to hold on to power. Thaksin, for any ills, at least put himself to the democratic test, and abided by the result. I wait with baited breath, for the outcome of Abisit's attempt of the same.

[margaretcarnes]

Given that #6 is pie in the sky I've gone for #5 - also maybe wishful thinking in a way - but I could see a 'no overall majority' situation being engineered simply to buy a bit of time with the soothsayers. If there is no immediate problem or threat no-one needs to worry about it. PT might go away. Someone else might come out of the woodwork. Toxin might get trampled by a chang. Anything but face up to it and who cares about high season anyway?

[dozer]

I think this quote from the New York Times article sums it up quite nicely

"Ms. Yingluck, who is leading in the polls, is up against the party of Abhisit Vejjajiva, the current prime minister, who is allied with the military leadership and the Bangkok establishment."

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/01/world ... wanted=all

[hhfarang]

...but the PAD animal posters probably portray the truest message.

We just got back from a few days in Bangkok and those posters were everywhere! They are all hilarious but I particularly liked the one with the two buffaloes dressed in suits and ties.

[johnnyk]

The army will win. But its only the prelude to the main event that will come soon enough. Hold on to your hats when it does.

[Bamboo Grove]

I agree with johnnyk, it's all about building the trenches now. The real battle will be fought in the future.

[Korkenzieher]

Tend to agree. The 2 sides of this highly polarised situation are likely to not let the niceties of an election result change their world-view. My fear, for what it is worth, is that the political marginalisation of the north, having tasted power, will ultimately lead to its (otherwise avoidable) radicalisation.

As far as the army is concerned - trying to march on the north with an army largely made up of poor Isan boys isn't likely to turn out well - for the south.

[STEVE G]

As far as the army is concerned - trying to march on the north with an army largely made up of poor Isan boys isn't likely to turn out well - for the south.

Yes, the army is powerful because of their political, business and other influential networks but they're a paper tiger in actual military ability to control the whole country and they know it.