uncle tom wrote:He seemed a bit taken aback when I explained that buying a property in Thailand is not such a clever thing to do if you've not got Thai family connections, and that renting is a much safer option. Whilst you might pay a little more in the long run fom renting.
However.. why are so many people obsessed with buying property, rather than renting?
What scenario are you applying here to
'paying a little more'? I wouldn't wanna sell a property back home in order to finance it, or some kind of finance arrangement that could blow up on us, but if we take a straight comparison of a retiree who's got the purchase funds available to either buy cash or rent+invest, there's just no comparison imo. Ok I'm inherently biased cos I work in property here but please tell me how it's any better than this, and I know everyone's circumstances are different and a guy late inlife with no Thai family would not wanna buy a house here with his UK grandkid's inheritence money etc etc...
But, for the average joe among us who don't know anything about investing on the stock market, even using conservative figures I can't seem to come up with any better than 50% of your invested sum+interest earnings devalued with inflation & rents between years 8-11, with the whole lot used by years 14-18. That's based on...
1) Achieving interest/earnings on your lump sum invested of 3.5%p.a.
2) A rent-price-ratio (gross yearly rental/price) of 6-7% the reported Thai ave., I reckon HH's is more like 7-8% but used the lower figure.
3) Inflation on rental fees each year same 3.5% as savings, tho' I believe will be higher here as town gets busy again.
4) Inflation of 3.5%p.a. time value of money measure against lump sum.
Year 1 - You hold 100 units ('x'm Baht), you need 6.5% rent+3.5% money value=10%... you earn 3.5%, so physically 3% down, plus cash devalued 3.5%.
Year 2 - Now 97 units, 3.4 interest earnings, rent increased to 6.7, now 3.4 physical reduction, plus another cash devalue of 3.5%.
Year 3 - Now 93.6, earn 3.27, rent at 6.9, cash devalue again.
Year 6 - Now 81.5, earn 2.9, rent at 7.7, cash devalue again.
Year 9 - Now 65.6, earn 2.3, rent at 13.1, cash devalue again.
--------- 65.5 units x 9 years of inflationary time-money devaluation = 47 units... over half initial value gone----------
The curve starts going balistic after year 10. Even if you dropped the rent figure down to an unrealistic 4% ratio, it'll still be a disaster because your investment is devaluing by 3.5% inflation each year.
Other risks & considerations:
- Property values/rents increasing over and above average inflation as it continues developing fast.
- Above average inflation here increasing that 3.5% devaluation of your capital.
- You're exposing yourself to unknown exchange rate fluctuations.
- Lose the option of cashing in or raising borrowing against a paid up asset if you have an emergency (needs wife on board)
- If family purchase then practically guaranteeing security for your wife & kids future.
Why on earth would a retiree choose to take on all this extra risk if he's in a position to remove it from the get go!?