Exports are expected to record their lowest growth in four years as a result of the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) and the renewed Sino-US trade war.
Aat Pisanwanich, director of the Center for International Trade Studies at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said the latest study puts export growth this year at 0.5-1%, compared with a 3% growth forecast made in February.
He cited the double whammy of the EVFTA, which becomes effective on June 1, and the deepening trade war between the US and China, with the former raising import tariffs on US$200 billion worth of Chinese exports from 10% to 25% last Friday. On Monday, Beijing said it would increase tariffs on roughly $60 billion worth of US goods in retaliation.
"We estimate that higher US tariffs on Chinese goods will trim Thailand's export income by 1.8% or $2.36 billion over the next six months of this year, while the EVFTA will slow Thailand's shipments by 0.3% or about $680 million in the same period," Mr Aat said.
Thailand reported export growth of 6.7% in 2018 to $252 billion, after 9.9% growth in 2017 and 0.5% in 2016.
Mr Aat said that in the worst-case scenario, with the US increasing tariffs on $300 billion worth of Chinese goods, Thailand's export growth could grow by 0.5% or even zero this year.
Source: https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/ne ... 4-year-low
Thought: Wouldn't have anything to do with a ridiculously over valued local currency would it? Nah - easier to blame the 'Mericans.
Thai export growth nears 4-year low
Thai export growth nears 4-year low
Who is the happier man, he who has braved the storm of life and lived or he who has stayed securely on shore and merely existed? - Hunter S Thompson
Re: Thai export growth nears 4-year low
Why would higher import taxes on Chinese goods by USA have any effect on Thai exports?? Why not more income with Thailand taking advantage to export more to USA?
It does not matter where you come from, it's where you are going that matters.
Re: Thai export growth nears 4-year low
Maybe because as the Chinese economy is meant to suffer, they can't afford to import so much from other countries?
And I doubt that Thailand is very high on the USA's preferred list of importers especially with Thailand's gradual political shift towards Bejing.
Oh, and it may also have something to do with the fact that Thailand is now expensive. And that's not just down to a strong Baht. It's just expensive, full stop - for the Thai people.
And I doubt that Thailand is very high on the USA's preferred list of importers especially with Thailand's gradual political shift towards Bejing.
Oh, and it may also have something to do with the fact that Thailand is now expensive. And that's not just down to a strong Baht. It's just expensive, full stop - for the Thai people.