Covid-19 News & Updates

[Nereus]

Virologist denies low cases due to limited testing

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/ge ... ed-testing

Respected virologist Yong Poovorawan on Friday rejected accusations that limited testing capacity is responsible for the low daily Covid-19 infection rates being reported.

"We have tested more than 3,000 cases [per million people]. The ratio is not lower than those of Malaysia and others. Moreover, we are now ramping up our capacity because there are more private laboratories. Laboratories in Thailand have already tested around 40,000 samples over the past week," Dr Yong said during a webinar held by Abbott, a foreign pharmaceutical company.

As the number of new Covid-19 cases reported each day has fallen to single digits over the past 12 days, there has been speculation that these low numbers may be a reflection of insufficient testing rather than successful virus mitigation measures.

However, Dr Yong, head of the Centre of Excellence in Clinical Virology at Chulalongkorn University's Faculty of Medicine, said this criticism is unfounded and stressed that the country was trying to make use of all available laboratory capacity to carry out the "gold standard" reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) swab tests.

As the Thai government slowly eases its lockdown measures, the Ministry of Public Health has pledged that it will hit 5,000 tests per million people in May with targeted areas including migrant worker camps and crowded communities in large cities and hospitals.

According to Dr Yong, the number of facilities able to test for Covid-19 now stands at 118, although he also noted that the disease is still not fully understood, particularly in terms of its window of infection.

"The novel coronavirus can live in patients from 4-45 days and they may remain asymptomatic for much of this time," he said.

"In some cases, patients who recover and test negative or undetectable before they return home test positive one or two weeks later because there are vestiges of the virus inside their bodies. These false positives are normal especially during the last stage of the disease," he said.

Prof Yong said Covid-19 is "a safe zone" for children, with a very low mortality rate among those under 10, although he warned against opening schools for the new academic year on July 1 as that could put family members at risk.

"Schools will likely become breeding grounds for superspreaders. Measures should be put in place to ensure safety, such as small class sizes and online learning," he said.

Dr Yong warned that the number of confirmed coronavirus patients is only "the tip of the iceberg", as there are likely to be a lot more asymptomatic carriers.

"In New York, a serology test found that 20% [of the population] were infected, but only one of 10 or 20 people exhibited symptoms. In China, a study was conducted on more than 40,000 people which showed that 80% of patients had mild symptoms, 14% were critical patients with pneumonia and nearly 5% were admitted to intensive care units," he said.

[caller]

-PCR) swab tests.

According to Dr Yong, the number of facilities able to test for Covid-19 now stands at 118, although he also noted that the disease is still not fully understood, particularly in terms of its window of infection.

Prof Yong said Covid-19 is "a safe zone" for children, with a very low mortality rate among those under 10, although he warned against opening schools for the new academic year on July 1 as that could put family members at risk.

"Schools will likely become breeding grounds for superspreaders. Measures should be put in place to ensure safety, such as small class sizes and online learning," he said.

Dr Yong warned that the number of confirmed coronavirus patients is only "the tip of the iceberg", as there are likely to be a lot more asymptomatic carriers.

"In New York, a serology test found that 20% [of the population] were infected, but only one of 10 or 20 people exhibited symptoms. In China, a study was conducted on more than 40,000 people which showed that 80% of patients had mild symptoms, 14% were critical patients with pneumonia and nearly 5% were admitted to intensive care units," he said.

I am fast reaching the stage of not trusting the reportage from the BP anymore - at all.

There are so many contradictions in this report that it's hard to imagine the good Doctor actually saying what has been reported and by not clarifying inconsistencies.

So 118 testing stations - where? How many are up north, or in the NE? How many in Pkk?

How can he claim the virus is a safe zone for kids but then warn schools could become breeding grounds for super spreaders?

I know it's not a Thai trait to ask and to politely accept what 'expert's have to say, but so often what they do say needs clarifying, otherwise, we are left none the wiser.

[HHTel]

There was never any mention of the figures being manipulated.
Just pointing out that only testing 0.3% of the population will never give the 'Big picture' of what is actually occurring in reality.

You are correct Suua. You didn't mention manipulation. I've just got used to the consensus by many that the Thai government is lying although there is no evidence and until there is, we have to accept what we're told.

Apart from the 'High Flyers', there are many that have tested below 1% (10,000 per mill).

It will be interesting to see what happens over the next few weeks. Social distancing is almost non-existant and the opening up of markets such as Chatuchak will be a real testing ground. If local infections remain at close to zero (the last week or so have shown imports and cases from quarantine) then maybe, just maybe, the virus has all but disappeared here. The most effective measure in Thailand was closing the borders.

The next couple of weeks should be telling, one way or the other.

[Big Boy]

[PeteC]

I put this here rather than in Current Affairs as the comparisons and similarities to the present are quite astonishing.

Coronavirus: How England and the USA tried to curb Spanish flu pandemic in 1918

Photo essay best viewed at link.

https://www.bbc.com/news/in-pictures-52564371

[dtaai-maai]

I put this here rather than in Current Affairs as the comparisons and similarities to the present are quite astonishing.

Coronavirus: How England and the USA tried to curb Spanish flu pandemic in 1918

Photo essay best viewed at link.

https://www.bbc.com/news/in-pictures-52564371

Very interesting. My father lost his brother to the Spanish flu in 1918. He (my father) was born in 1902, and I often think about how different his childhood must have been to mine, not to mention the rest of his life.

[nil]

I think there is a clue in the last photo of that BBC article. We need Iron Jelloids bought back to help fight this.

[PeteC]

Seoul frets about new Covid wave

https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/19153 ... covid-wave

A potential second wave of coronavirus infections could be possible in South Korea after confirmed cases suddenly increased after a lull, with a surge tied to nightclubs in Seoul.

The total number of cases linked to nightclubs in the Itaewon district of the capital had increased to 40 as of Saturday. Seoul Mayor Park Won-soon ordered the closing of all nightclubs, discos, hostess bars and other similar nightlife establishments.

The sudden spike has revived memories of the outbreak among members of a religious sect in late February, which sent daily infections in the nation to almost 1,000.

South Korea, which in early March had the second highest number of cases globally after China, has been able to control the virus spread without having to take severe measures such as imposing a lockdown or banning overseas travel. Instead, authorities have relied on a massive testing and tracing regime.

The country recently began easing its social distancing campaign and earlier this week announced that schools will start reopening on May 13.....

(Reports from other worldwide locations at link)

[oakdale160]

USA deaths over 80,000 1 American in every 4000 has died.
UK and Italy, close to 1 in 2000

[Big Boy]

[pharvey]

Taken from the Telegraph (UK).

US and UK Intelligence Agencies 'Examining Report on Mobile Phone Data at Wuhan Laboratory'

"US and British intelligence agencies are reportedly examining mobile phone data suggesting there could have been an emergency shutdown in October at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

According to a report, obtained by NBC News, there was no mobile phone activity in a high-security part of the Chinese laboratory complex from Oct 7 to Oct 24. Previously, there had been consistent use of mobile phones.

The report, carried out by private experts, suggested there may have been a "hazardous event," specifically at the institute's National Biosafety Laboratory, between Oct 6 and Oct 11.

Analysis of mobile phone data from the area surrounding the institute also suggested roadblocks were in place between Oct 14 and Oct 19...."

[handdrummer]

BB, why are some of your post large blanks?

[pharvey]

Below taken from: - https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... a2409bb07b

China Reports Possible New Wave of Coronavirus Cases

"Chinese authorities have reported what could be the beginning of a new wave of coronavirus cases in the northeast of the country, with one city in Jilin province being reclassified as high-risk.

Jilin officials raised the risk level of the city of Shulan to high from medium, having raised it to medium from low just the day before after one woman tested positive on Thursday.

Eleven new cases in Shulan were confirmed on Saturday, all of them members of her family or people who came into contact with her or family members, Reuters reported.

Shulan has increased virus-control measures, including a lockdown of residential compounds, a ban on non-essential transportation and school closures, the Jilin government said.

The new cases pushed the overall number of new confirmed cases in mainland China on Saturday to 14, according to the National Health Commission on Sunday – the highest number since April 28.

Among them was the first case for more than a month in the city of Wuhan in central Hubei province where the outbreak was first detected late last year."

UK Death Toll ‘Could Hit 100,000 if Lockdown Eased too Fast’

"The Sunday Times is reporting that the UK death toll could climb to 100,000 if lockdown restrictions ease too quickly. At 7pm BST on Sunday, British prime minister Boris Johnson is expected to announce a gradual easing of lockdown restrictions, but some scientists are worried about a second wave of the virus. According to the report the PM has been warned of having “very little room to manoeuvre” by his top scientific advisors and told Britain could suffer more than 100,000 deaths by the end of the year if ministers relax the lockdown too far and too fast, the paper reports a scientific adviser telling the government last night."

New Infections on Rise in Germany

"New coronavirus infections are accelerating again in Germany just days after its leaders loosened social restrictions, raising concerns that the pandemic could once again slip out of control. The Robert Koch Institute for disease control said in a daily bulletin the number of people each sick person now infects – known as the reproduction rate, or R – had risen to 1.1."

France Reports New Cluster Hours Before Lockdown Ends

"Hours before France ends its strict seven-week coronavirus lockdown on Monday, a worrying new Covid-19 cluster has been reported in the Dordogne. The outbreak has been traced back to the funeral of a 51-year-old man in the small village of L’Eglise-Neuve-de-Vergt – population 500 – south of Périgueux. The man did not die of Covid-19."


A long way to go yet......

[HHTel]

With regard to the Wuhan lab conspiracy, all the evidence so far identifies that the virus is not man made or genetically modified so has to be natural.

Dr. Fauci says:

“If you look at the evolution of the virus in bats and what’s out there now,” there’s a strong scientific case that “this could not have been artificially or deliberately manipulated,” Fauci said in an interview with National Geographic. “Everything about the stepwise evolution over time strongly indicates that [this virus] evolved in nature and then jumped species.”

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence had previously issued a statement to the same effect: “The intelligence community also concurs with the wide scientific consensus that the COVID-19 virus was not man-made or genetically modified.”

Fauci went on to say that even if this virus escaped from the lab, then based on the evidence, this virus was already in the 'wild'. It can only have come from nature without any intervention.

[STEVE G]

With regard to the Wuhan lab conspiracy, all the evidence so far identifies that the virus is not man made or genetically modified so has to be natural.

Dr. Fauci says:

“If you look at the evolution of the virus in bats and what’s out there now,” there’s a strong scientific case that “this could not have been artificially or deliberately manipulated,” Fauci said in an interview with National Geographic. “Everything about the stepwise evolution over time strongly indicates that [this virus] evolved in nature and then jumped species.”

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence had previously issued a statement to the same effect: “The intelligence community also concurs with the wide scientific consensus that the COVID-19 virus was not man-made or genetically modified.”

Fauci went on to say that even if this virus escaped from the lab, then based on the evidence, this virus was already in the 'wild'. It can only have come from nature without any intervention.

Accepting that the virus was natural, it does still leave the possibility that this institute is culpable by rooting it out of a remote cave where it wouldn't have normally come into contact with humans, something that they admitted doing repeatedly on their website and then accidentally releasing it into the centre of a large city.
I'm not claiming that there is evidence of that at the moment but it's a possibility that needs investigating.