GBP vs THB

[ahandpatsy]

Just a thought, if the thai baht v sterling depreciation is a major concern *which it surely is"

Why dont you hedge against the loss by betting on the baht v sterling on the forex markets

Even if the baht does get stronger you still win

[caller]

I think the problem is that, the UK is heading for a 3rd dip recession and there is little that they can do to avoid it. Production figures are down, unemployment is up. Unfortunately personal debt is also up also.

I was really responding to Stevepiraqs comment about spending. Agree with the issue re: production but would question whether the Govt. could be doing more - with the banks? Loans are down for business and we get two stories, the banks saying there isn't the demand and small businesses saying the banks won't lend?

And unemployment is actually down. What is increasing is under-employment. Those in work, who are not fully employed. But that may change with the next set of figures as there seems to have been a few closures recently.

We all await with trepidation Osbourne's budget next week - although he surely cannot keep screwing Joe Public!

[MrPlum]

...government spending is increasing dramatically whereas the government is continually stating they are cutting spending.

The same bovine excrement the White House scoundrels are peddling. The reality is the government has to print more money and lots of it to avoid a full blown depression. The newly unemployed and dispossessed need their welfare and the state has to expand spending since private capital will not invest in a depressed environment. Usually governments put money aside during the good times to pay for the bad times. Not this time. They are insolvent which is why the FED has been handing out trillions through the back door to countries that have gone bust due to the criminal global mortgage scam.

Banks haven't been lending due to risk avoidance and to increase their reserves. They are also still speculating in the global financial casino rather than investing in the real economy. Why wouldn't they? They are making more money. Especially now they know the house always wins. Their puppet politicians just change the law and dump any losses on the plebs.

The debasing of the currency, due to money-printing, increases inflation, makes imports more expensive but reduces debt by inflating it away. 10 year boom followed by a 10 year bust. Pity your savings are now worthless. With interest on savings at zero and loans cheap you can encourage even more debt. Brilliant.

The principal cause of the mess we are in is the 'easy money' policies of the international private banker cartel. Inflation followed by deflation gradually moves the wealth of nations into the hands into the banks and traps the world in debt-slavery. The inflation/deflation scam has been going on for decades. They know exactly what will happen when they print too much money. How many times has this scenario occurred?

There is nothing to sustain the value of the dollar except war and oil. After Nixon binned the gold standard, he forced oil producing nations to only transact in dollars. This forced all other nations to buy dollars, maintaining its value. The main reason for the 'War OF Terror' is to force the usurious central banking system on the Islamic world and to crush any nation that dares to transact oil in other currencies. America, Inc. (whole-owned subsidiary of the 'money power') has no choice if it wishes to defend its currency.

I mention the dollar because if it goes down, so does the pound. Zio boot-licker Gordon Brown gave the banker bandits the UK's gold at a knock-down price. With no manufacturing to generate wealth the 'service-economy' populace are dependent on the state for employment and welfare. The country is tapped-out.

Wealth concentrated in the 0.1%. Middle Class is decimated. The State continues to expand. Communism 'lite' is triumphant.

Thailand is a far better place to be IMO than the UK or U.S.

I like the idea of hedging against the baht but I suspect those who are feeling the pinch won't have the funds or knowledge to do it.

GOLD topped at 27,000. Now I am a buyer. I doubt it will drop much further from here and I like holding physical gold rather than trust an ETF or off-shore vault.

[StevePIraq]

I follow this with great interest as I am sure many do

I put together this little table so I could follow the decline, it would appear the best place to have put all of ones money say 5 years ago would have been Thailand.

Euro Baht % Change Months
01-Aug-08 €1 52.19936 0.00%
07-Jun-11 €1 44.30223 -15.13%
04-Jun-12 €1 39.16836 -11.59%
19-Apr-13 €1 37.51500 -4.22%
Day 1 to now -28.13% 57.4
USD Baht % Change Months
01-Aug-08 $1 33.4900 0.00%
07-Jun-11 $1 31.8750 -4.82%
04-Jun-12 $1 31.4455 -1.35%
19-Apr-13 $1 28.6825 -8.79%
Day 1 to now -14.36% 57.4
AUD Baht % Change Months
01-Aug-08 $1 31.66986 0.00%
07-Jun-11 $1 32.3042 2.00%
04-Jun-12 $1 30.6040 -5.26%
19-Apr-13 $1 29.6659 -3.07%
Day 1 to now -6.33% 57.4
GB Baht % Change Months
01-Aug-08 £1 66.44585 0.00%
07-Jun-11 £1 45.59924 -31.37%
04-Jun-12 £1 48.57973 6.54%
19-Apr-13 £1 43.87150 -9.69%
Day 1 to now -33.97% 57.4

[BaaBaa.]

Jesus, I've not really checked the rates for months, just booked a flight and seen 43.5 baht, bad times.

[MrPlum]

I put together this little table so I could follow the decline, it would appear the best place to have put all of ones money say 5 years ago would have been Thailand.

Thanks for doing that. Trust the UK to be the worst performer.

What investors sometimes forget is that, with a 33% drop, you need a 50% increase in value, to return to where you were. NOT 33%. This is why it's important to cut losses.

100-33% = 67
67*50% = 100 (ish)

[midlandmike]

What is the feeling has it found its new level or is it going lower?

[JimmyGreaves]

My feeling is lower: Fitch have just downgraded the £ to AA+ and there is not much good news coming out of the country! Unless the baht depreciates I see down down down 35.00 and it will feel as expensive as Sweden

[caller]

I can't substantiate this, but the noises from witjin the UK appear to be suggesting we have possibly just turned the corner? They now seem confident a triple dip will be avoided and business is picking up, certainly house sales are starting to move again. Its all slow and sluggish, but better than recession.

[midlandmike]

Is there any evidence of British people leaving, planning to leave it goes below 40 or lessening of British tourists. A friend in Pattaya who runsa big golf group claims that the proportion of Brits in his clientele is down.

[Big Boy]

Is there any evidence of British people leaving

I haven't seen any, but it has to be inevitable amongst those who moved here, and did their planning on 60 or 70 Baht to the Pound.

lessening of British tourists.

This will be a longer term effect. For most people holiday planning is a long term task, so I doubt the recent collapse will have been noticed yet. Even the likes of BaaBaa., he's a regular who normally has his finger on the pulse has only just acknowledged the drop.

[Roel]

This high season here in Phuket we had certainly a lot less tourists from all Western European countries. Not many first time visitors. The ones who came come every year. They try to hold on to their routine but most complain about the costs and are not sure they will (read: be financially able to) come back next year.

Their places however are easily filled with tourists from Asia, Russia, Middle Eastern countries and last but not least Australia.

[caller]

The reality is that Thailand isn't such a cheap destination anymore, the flight prices add to that and there are lots of alternatives. Everyone is aware tourism to Burma is increasing and it will be interesting to see if direct flights to Vietnam, introduced last year, have had any bearing?

[uncle tom]

During my winter trip this year, I find that I spent almost exactly the same amount of money (in sterling terms) as I did last year, despite getting 10% less baht for my quid.

I didn't have an agenda to economise, but clearly did so without really thinking about it.

Do other people find themselves cutting their spend to match the exchange rate?

If so, the implications for the Thai economy from the strengthening baht must be serious, given the importance of tourism..

[Roel]

As said before: Europeans spent less or are not visiting at all, but other nationalities are more than making up for the loss. Before Somchai the longtail boat driver brought English and German tourists to Phi Phi Island. Now he fills his boat with Russians and Chinese.