Thai baht appreciation against the $
Vietnam has devalued their currency...
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/26/busin ... value.html
Maybe Thailand should too??
Here in Aus the dollar is supposed to meet parity and then go on to 115% US dollar before coming back to around 70 - 80.
We are a resource rich country that has ridden the boom of Asia. Our interest rates are high, our banks are stronger (and better regulated) than anywhere in the world.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/26/busin ... value.html
Maybe Thailand should too??
Here in Aus the dollar is supposed to meet parity and then go on to 115% US dollar before coming back to around 70 - 80.
We are a resource rich country that has ridden the boom of Asia. Our interest rates are high, our banks are stronger (and better regulated) than anywhere in the world.
There are at least factors at work.
First and foremost is the role of America as the world’s leading debtor nation. America has been able to get away with its deficits because of the role of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. The role of the dollar is coming to an end. There has been talk of IMF special drawing rights replacing the dollar as well as talk of the Euro replacing the dollar. This is a work in progress, and will be increasingly played out over the next few years. As the role of the dollar is diminished and without realistic fiscal policies being put in place now, the inevitable economic pain that will beset the American people will be exacerbated.
The second factor was the incredible failure of regulation of the banking and the “investment banking” sectors in the US. Most investment bankers were involved in wholesale fraud in the way they packaged and sold investment products. These frauds led local government, pension funds and endowment funds holding risky hybrid investments that were outside their investment parameters. Interestingly, with the exception of a few one offs such as Madoff, the US authorities have failed to hold these responsible accountable with criminal prosecution. The danger here is that the whole debacle will repeat itself.
The third big problem has been progressive US governments’ willingness to let America’s manufacturing sector collapse in the name of free trade. Jobs have been exported offshore and America has been left in the position where it does not generate the income that is needed to finance its acquisition of foreign goods and services. I am not saying that protectionism is the answer, but why let your manufacturing sector be destroyed because the Chinese manipulate their terms of trade by having an artificially undervalued currency?
From the Chinese perspective they have managed to achieve one of the most significant economic transformations in history. If the value of their dollar holdings falls, they are still way ahead.
People often say that inflation was tamed in the 90’s and beyond. But how much has this simply been the effect of replacing American goods with cheaper Chinese goods and hence covering up otherwise poor macroeconomic management?
Thailand has an export orientated economy and the ability to sell more to the world than it buys. Expect the baht to continue to rise against the dollar.
First and foremost is the role of America as the world’s leading debtor nation. America has been able to get away with its deficits because of the role of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. The role of the dollar is coming to an end. There has been talk of IMF special drawing rights replacing the dollar as well as talk of the Euro replacing the dollar. This is a work in progress, and will be increasingly played out over the next few years. As the role of the dollar is diminished and without realistic fiscal policies being put in place now, the inevitable economic pain that will beset the American people will be exacerbated.
The second factor was the incredible failure of regulation of the banking and the “investment banking” sectors in the US. Most investment bankers were involved in wholesale fraud in the way they packaged and sold investment products. These frauds led local government, pension funds and endowment funds holding risky hybrid investments that were outside their investment parameters. Interestingly, with the exception of a few one offs such as Madoff, the US authorities have failed to hold these responsible accountable with criminal prosecution. The danger here is that the whole debacle will repeat itself.
The third big problem has been progressive US governments’ willingness to let America’s manufacturing sector collapse in the name of free trade. Jobs have been exported offshore and America has been left in the position where it does not generate the income that is needed to finance its acquisition of foreign goods and services. I am not saying that protectionism is the answer, but why let your manufacturing sector be destroyed because the Chinese manipulate their terms of trade by having an artificially undervalued currency?
From the Chinese perspective they have managed to achieve one of the most significant economic transformations in history. If the value of their dollar holdings falls, they are still way ahead.
People often say that inflation was tamed in the 90’s and beyond. But how much has this simply been the effect of replacing American goods with cheaper Chinese goods and hence covering up otherwise poor macroeconomic management?
Thailand has an export orientated economy and the ability to sell more to the world than it buys. Expect the baht to continue to rise against the dollar.
Question? If you were going to visit Thailand for four months would you cash out all your us dollars right away or would you cash them out speratically over the next couple of months.
I arrive in Thailand in two days. I don't know if I want to cash out now or spreed it out over for the next couple of months. Any advice would be great!
In the. current situation I think that the dollar is as high as it will be for the next four months.
I arrive in Thailand in two days. I don't know if I want to cash out now or spreed it out over for the next couple of months. Any advice would be great!
In the. current situation I think that the dollar is as high as it will be for the next four months.
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The Dude,
I think the dollar is as high as it ever will be from now on, unless something drastic happens to the baht. In recent years the dollar and the pound have gone in different directions against the baht - when one goes up the other goes down, which suggests to me that the baht is still unofficially tied to the dollar in some way. This may change of course but against the baht the two currencies move in opposite directions.
I think the dollar is as high as it ever will be from now on, unless something drastic happens to the baht. In recent years the dollar and the pound have gone in different directions against the baht - when one goes up the other goes down, which suggests to me that the baht is still unofficially tied to the dollar in some way. This may change of course but against the baht the two currencies move in opposite directions.
I've always wondered about the Baht being unofficially tied to the USD.
I don't know much about this stuff, but if you take the USD/GBP exchange rate and multiply that by the USD/THB rate, you always end up pretty much at the THB/GBP rate
So, if the dollar falls against the GBP, the GBP should appreciate against the THB.
Confused? I am, but it always seems to work out about right.
I don't know much about this stuff, but if you take the USD/GBP exchange rate and multiply that by the USD/THB rate, you always end up pretty much at the THB/GBP rate
So, if the dollar falls against the GBP, the GBP should appreciate against the THB.
Confused? I am, but it always seems to work out about right.
An excellent analysis TAMAN. Let me try to expand in my simple terms of how I think it's all playing out.TAMAN wrote:There are at least factors at work.
First and foremost is the role of America as the world’s leading debtor nation. America has been able to get away with its deficits because of the role of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. The role of the dollar is coming to an end. There has been talk of IMF special drawing rights replacing the dollar as well as talk of the Euro replacing the dollar. This is a work in progress, and will be increasingly played out over the next few years. As the role of the dollar is diminished and without realistic fiscal policies being put in place now, the inevitable economic pain that will beset the American people will be exacerbated.
The second factor was the incredible failure of regulation of the banking and the “investment banking” sectors in the US. Most investment bankers were involved in wholesale fraud in the way they packaged and sold investment products. These frauds led local government, pension funds and endowment funds holding risky hybrid investments that were outside their investment parameters. Interestingly, with the exception of a few one offs such as Madoff, the US authorities have failed to hold these responsible accountable with criminal prosecution. The danger here is that the whole debacle will repeat itself.
The third big problem has been progressive US governments’ willingness to let America’s manufacturing sector collapse in the name of free trade. Jobs have been exported offshore and America has been left in the position where it does not generate the income that is needed to finance its acquisition of foreign goods and services. I am not saying that protectionism is the answer, but why let your manufacturing sector be destroyed because the Chinese manipulate their terms of trade by having an artificially undervalued currency?
From the Chinese perspective they have managed to achieve one of the most significant economic transformations in history. If the value of their dollar holdings falls, they are still way ahead.
People often say that inflation was tamed in the 90’s and beyond. But how much has this simply been the effect of replacing American goods with cheaper Chinese goods and hence covering up otherwise poor macroeconomic management?
Thailand has an export orientated economy and the ability to sell more to the world than it buys. Expect the baht to continue to rise against the dollar.
The privately owned bank owners and top industrialists have ensured the governments in power have yielded to their wishes and their wishes are to own all of the worlds resources and control the world. A few years ago that statement would have seemed a completely outrageous and off-the-wall comment. Anyone making these claims would have been branded a lunatic conspiracy theorist, but as the facts unravel over time, more and more are opening up to the possibility there might be some truth in this, if not entirely buying into the theory completely.
Let's look at the so-called "bailouts". In the US, congress had to vote on a 400 page legislation bill, rushed through that didn't allow congressmen the time to read and consider the paper. The legislation was voted down, but within a week a new paper was written with many amendments, the bankers and industrialists this time threatened martial law and a stock market crash if the legislation was not passed. New additions were added which allowed the Federal Reserve to give the banks as much as they thought was necessary. That amount has now gone into trillions, yet congressmen were not allowed the time to read, consider and debate this stupendous legislation.
The reason for the bailouts was supposedly to give the banks the money necessary to give them the ability to keep lending to small companies and new businesses, thereby stimulating the economy. What has really happened? These group of private individuals have taken all the money and are buying up all the industries with it. They are not lending money. They are buying up companies. That's why the stock markets around the world are going up. They are buying the stocks. So who are "they"? We are not allowed to know!!! The Federal Reserve say they can't tell us. That's why they will not allow themselves to be audited. They don't want you to know who has stolen all the worlds money and is buying up all the companies in the stock market.
Meanwhile the dollar will slide, occasionally boosted by the Fed to allow them more time to buy up all the worlds resources. I call that daylight robbery. Does anyone have any other explanation?
To answer The Dudes question - the dollar has been steadily declining, but is boosted every so often in spurts as if someone somewhere is buying dollars so it doesn't decline too quickly. Last Friday the US dollar rolling index (a measure of the US dollar against a basket of currencies), went from 74.5 to 76. The dollar therefore dramatically increased against most other currencies. I think it will now steadily decline until it gets the next boost, which might take it to 75.5, then a steadily decline until the next boost to something like 75 etc. That has been the pattern since its record level of 86 back in March 2008 and steady decline thereafter. Based on this trend, I think now would be a good time to cash in your dollars. First check on Monday if the dollar goes back to slowly declining as the pattern continues.
China has an official policy to use the current period of instability to get value from its huge international reserves to buy up as many natural resources as possible. Hence, for example, the takeover bids for Australian miners. China has been very active in Africa, South America and in Iraq and Iran in tying up long term access deals.
China now manages the Panama canal!
Africa is a major attraction for Chinese diplomacy and investment. The US and Europe are not in the race in Africa.
In terms of trying to tie up long term supply of natural resources the US is being comprehensively outmanoeuvred by China. Interestingly India finds itself repeatedly being outmanoeuvred by China for resources, and is an issue of concern to India.
There has been a failure by the “rescued” US banking system to provide liquidity to the small business sector which is acting as a brake on US recovery.
I don’t think that the US banking sector has any long term agenda. They are not that smart and forward thinking. Serious dollars have been lost in Wall Street. The sector has been incompetent, greedy and dishonest and US government regulation or lack thereof has been appalling.
Think of what happened at being the economic equivalent of Hurricane Katrina or the economic equivalent of the Iraq fiasco. The US government under Bush was shown up as incompetent in maintaining the levees and in its response to the crises. The Bush government was also shown up as being totally incompetent in its lack of planning for Iraq after the invasion – read the book “Fiasco”*.
So we have the economic equivalent from what is probably the most incompetent administration in US history.
What is staggering is that Obama has continued with the same idiots who let the system spin out of control in the first place. Seriously, what does he expect of their ability to guide the country out of the mess that their lack of oversight created in the first place?
Thailand has the advantage that it has a sound agricultural sector (the world’s largest rice exporter, one of the world’s largest frozen chicken exporters and one of the world’s largest seafood exporters) and a strong manufacturing base. Imagine where Thailand could be if it managed sort out its dysfunctional politics?
For those with US dollar denominated assets expect the dollar to continue to fall against nearly every currency. I understand that Thailand and many other Asian countries like to keep their currencies within a range tied to the US dollar, but when the arse falls out of the dollar it will not be in their interest to follow the dollar down the plug hole.
The Euro seems to be the currency of least risk/potential upside and a move into the Euro should help to ensure buying power in Thailand.
*Fiasco (book)
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation, search
Fiasco: The American Military Adventure in Iraq
Cover of the paperback edition
Author Thomas E. Ricks
Country United States
Language English
Subject(s) Iraq War
Publisher
Penguin Group
Publication date 2006
ISBN
ISBN 159420103X
OCLC Number
67375172
Dewey Decimal
956.7044/3 22
LC Classification
DS79.76 .R535 2006
Fiasco: The American Military Adventure in Iraq (2006) is a book by Washington Post Pentagon correspondent Thomas E. Ricks. Fiasco deals with the history of the Iraq War from the planning phase to combat operations to 2006 and argues that the war was badly planned and executed. Ricks based the book in part on interviews with military personnel involved in the planning and execution of the war.
China now manages the Panama canal!
Africa is a major attraction for Chinese diplomacy and investment. The US and Europe are not in the race in Africa.
In terms of trying to tie up long term supply of natural resources the US is being comprehensively outmanoeuvred by China. Interestingly India finds itself repeatedly being outmanoeuvred by China for resources, and is an issue of concern to India.
There has been a failure by the “rescued” US banking system to provide liquidity to the small business sector which is acting as a brake on US recovery.
I don’t think that the US banking sector has any long term agenda. They are not that smart and forward thinking. Serious dollars have been lost in Wall Street. The sector has been incompetent, greedy and dishonest and US government regulation or lack thereof has been appalling.
Think of what happened at being the economic equivalent of Hurricane Katrina or the economic equivalent of the Iraq fiasco. The US government under Bush was shown up as incompetent in maintaining the levees and in its response to the crises. The Bush government was also shown up as being totally incompetent in its lack of planning for Iraq after the invasion – read the book “Fiasco”*.
So we have the economic equivalent from what is probably the most incompetent administration in US history.
What is staggering is that Obama has continued with the same idiots who let the system spin out of control in the first place. Seriously, what does he expect of their ability to guide the country out of the mess that their lack of oversight created in the first place?
Thailand has the advantage that it has a sound agricultural sector (the world’s largest rice exporter, one of the world’s largest frozen chicken exporters and one of the world’s largest seafood exporters) and a strong manufacturing base. Imagine where Thailand could be if it managed sort out its dysfunctional politics?
For those with US dollar denominated assets expect the dollar to continue to fall against nearly every currency. I understand that Thailand and many other Asian countries like to keep their currencies within a range tied to the US dollar, but when the arse falls out of the dollar it will not be in their interest to follow the dollar down the plug hole.
The Euro seems to be the currency of least risk/potential upside and a move into the Euro should help to ensure buying power in Thailand.
*Fiasco (book)
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation, search
Fiasco: The American Military Adventure in Iraq
Cover of the paperback edition
Author Thomas E. Ricks
Country United States
Language English
Subject(s) Iraq War
Publisher
Penguin Group
Publication date 2006
ISBN
ISBN 159420103X
OCLC Number
67375172
Dewey Decimal
956.7044/3 22
LC Classification
DS79.76 .R535 2006
Fiasco: The American Military Adventure in Iraq (2006) is a book by Washington Post Pentagon correspondent Thomas E. Ricks. Fiasco deals with the history of the Iraq War from the planning phase to combat operations to 2006 and argues that the war was badly planned and executed. Ricks based the book in part on interviews with military personnel involved in the planning and execution of the war.
Tamen - whilst I agree with many aspects in your post there are some things I take a different slant on. The fiasco of the Iraq war for one. If you come from the premise the US really wanted a stable Iraq, a quick war, restore democracy then get out sure, it was a complete fiasco. But if you think like I do that the policy of the US was to stir up as much chaos as possible, then they succeeded admirably. Recruiting a private thug army (Blackwater) and let the criminal lowlife murderers run roughshod throughout the country killing at raping at will was all part of their plan to maintain instability whilst they secured all the oil contracts, made a killing (pun intented) on war profits. Amid the chaos it gave them an excuse to set up torture camps around the world, keeping people in human conditions for years until their will is broken and they will admit to their involvement in 9/11.
So I say the chaos creating fiasco was planned but the capture and security of the oil platforms were precise and professional. Success on two fronts. I don't think they are as stupid as you might think. On the contrary they are very cunning, duping the whole world into thinking Iraq posed a grave threat, and even when the lies were exposed, through their controlled media no one questions the reasons why they are still there anymore.
As for China's involvement in world economic affairs I'll bow to your knowledge on this. Do you think the Chinese will take over California? Personally I don't really think in terms of countries anymore when it comes to world economics. I believe there are a small group of very secretive determined clever people (the elite, bilderbergs call them what you will), who have no allegiance to any country and are hell bent on owning all the wealth in the world and creating world governance. They are bang on track, and as their plans materialize it becomes clearer for all to see.
I agree the dollar will continue it's steady decline with various manipulated boosts to stop complete free-fall and allow the elite more time to use the trillions of dollars they have stolen to buy up as much companies as possible. I also agree Thailand is in a better position because of its agricultural and export base. The Thai baht will steadily grow stronger against the dollar with the odd dollar boosts along the way.
So I say the chaos creating fiasco was planned but the capture and security of the oil platforms were precise and professional. Success on two fronts. I don't think they are as stupid as you might think. On the contrary they are very cunning, duping the whole world into thinking Iraq posed a grave threat, and even when the lies were exposed, through their controlled media no one questions the reasons why they are still there anymore.
As for China's involvement in world economic affairs I'll bow to your knowledge on this. Do you think the Chinese will take over California? Personally I don't really think in terms of countries anymore when it comes to world economics. I believe there are a small group of very secretive determined clever people (the elite, bilderbergs call them what you will), who have no allegiance to any country and are hell bent on owning all the wealth in the world and creating world governance. They are bang on track, and as their plans materialize it becomes clearer for all to see.
I agree the dollar will continue it's steady decline with various manipulated boosts to stop complete free-fall and allow the elite more time to use the trillions of dollars they have stolen to buy up as much companies as possible. I also agree Thailand is in a better position because of its agricultural and export base. The Thai baht will steadily grow stronger against the dollar with the odd dollar boosts along the way.
Thread topic: "Thai baht appreciation against the $"
Commentary: "private thug army (Blackwater) and let the criminal lowlife murderers run roughshod throughout the country killing at raping at will. Amid the chaos it gave them an excuse to set up torture camps around the world. keeping people in human conditions for years until their will is broken and they will admit to their involvement in 9/11."
Okaaaaayyyy
=============================================
Re: the Dollar falling against the Baht or a.n.other currency , being a simple person I thought this was a result of the massive financial crisis the US, and others are in caused primarily due to years of irresponsible lending (ala Sub-Prime) and wreckless borrowing/spending (ala us daft tw_ts).
Perhaps I need to get out more
SJ
PS: How DARE you leave out the owl and the pussy cat
Commentary: "private thug army (Blackwater) and let the criminal lowlife murderers run roughshod throughout the country killing at raping at will. Amid the chaos it gave them an excuse to set up torture camps around the world. keeping people in human conditions for years until their will is broken and they will admit to their involvement in 9/11."
Okaaaaayyyy
=============================================
Re: the Dollar falling against the Baht or a.n.other currency , being a simple person I thought this was a result of the massive financial crisis the US, and others are in caused primarily due to years of irresponsible lending (ala Sub-Prime) and wreckless borrowing/spending (ala us daft tw_ts).
Perhaps I need to get out more
SJ
PS: How DARE you leave out the owl and the pussy cat
Conspiracy theories aside, Chinese oil companies hold contracts in Iraq.
Everyone knows that China is the largest holder of US bonds...
On US dollar...unemployment looking A LOT better than expected and gained ground on most major currencies, there has been a mention of raising interest rates which will strengthen the dollar which is good news but I would not expect this to turn around the market by itself, in fact I am sceptical of the market making a bull run for at least 12 - 18 months.
The Dude
If your a gambling man, change your money as you spend it and read the papers EVERY morning without fail before the stock market opens, if you see good news for the economy ie, unemployment drops or economic uncertainty OUTSIDE of the US ie Dubai goes bankrupt, expect the dollar to strengthen.
If you like certainty, change your money now, because the forecast is not good for 2010.
Everyone knows that China is the largest holder of US bonds...
On US dollar...unemployment looking A LOT better than expected and gained ground on most major currencies, there has been a mention of raising interest rates which will strengthen the dollar which is good news but I would not expect this to turn around the market by itself, in fact I am sceptical of the market making a bull run for at least 12 - 18 months.
The Dude
If your a gambling man, change your money as you spend it and read the papers EVERY morning without fail before the stock market opens, if you see good news for the economy ie, unemployment drops or economic uncertainty OUTSIDE of the US ie Dubai goes bankrupt, expect the dollar to strengthen.
If you like certainty, change your money now, because the forecast is not good for 2010.
I accept that the ability to control Iraqi oil was one of the main motivators of the US invasion. But are thousands of dead and billions of dollars it has not worked out that way. China, Russia and France have been big winners in the Iraqi oil game. Cheney and his cohorts thoughts that Ahmad Chalabi and his Iraq National Congress and other puppets would govern Iraq. They never expect a wily politician such as Maliki to rise up assert independence.
I don’t believe that the evidence exists that they deliberately set out to create chaos. Bush just had a good habit of picking across most of his administration the wrong people for the wrong job. Paul Bremer was a fine case in point. Blackwater is a very dark and nasty
History will I think judge the George Bush as the worst US president and the dollar’s decline is a postscript to his administration’s incompetence. It is all rather sad and has destroyed many peoples’ lives.
But getting back to the topic, many commentators see the dollar going south big time. Get there will be dollar rallies, but either move into a currency such as the Euro or get used to switching currencies on a daily or weekly basis.
The pound is still sick big time. Gordon Brown is another case in point of a total incompetent. Does he not bear any responsibility of what has happened to the UK economy? The pound is not likely to recover whilst Labor remain in office.
As I said above, imagine where Thailand could be if it got its governence house in order.
I don’t believe that the evidence exists that they deliberately set out to create chaos. Bush just had a good habit of picking across most of his administration the wrong people for the wrong job. Paul Bremer was a fine case in point. Blackwater is a very dark and nasty
History will I think judge the George Bush as the worst US president and the dollar’s decline is a postscript to his administration’s incompetence. It is all rather sad and has destroyed many peoples’ lives.
But getting back to the topic, many commentators see the dollar going south big time. Get there will be dollar rallies, but either move into a currency such as the Euro or get used to switching currencies on a daily or weekly basis.
The pound is still sick big time. Gordon Brown is another case in point of a total incompetent. Does he not bear any responsibility of what has happened to the UK economy? The pound is not likely to recover whilst Labor remain in office.
As I said above, imagine where Thailand could be if it got its governence house in order.
TAMAN,
We all really have only ourselves to blame as our greed and energy consumption is what creates this necessity. How much food do we throw away and believe it or not, that keeps the price down - its over supplied.
As the developing world catches up to the developed world, the greed grows and the motivators grow.
Until we stop excess consumption, forget about human rights.
Everything has a flow on effect.
We all really have only ourselves to blame as our greed and energy consumption is what creates this necessity. How much food do we throw away and believe it or not, that keeps the price down - its over supplied.
As the developing world catches up to the developed world, the greed grows and the motivators grow.
Until we stop excess consumption, forget about human rights.
Everything has a flow on effect.