This is a good editorial and sums things up in a nut shell. As he says, most don't want violence but it will only take a handful to set things off. The government will not do what the Red Shirts want today. It then becomes a question of what the Red Shirts leaders will do, fold the tent or up the stakes. Pete
http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opin ... nally-here
Opinion » Opinion
Day of reckoning is finally here
* Published: 14/03/2010 at 12:00 AM
* Newspaper section: News Bangkok Post
As I'm writing this, the red shirts are pouring into Bangkok. Jatuporn Prompan, one of the three core leaders of the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD), promises a million red shirts by noon on Sunday.
But that number is unlikely. More probable, according to reports, the number should be about 100,000, give or take a few, which is more than enough to paralyse the city of Bangkok.
All through the past week, the red shirt UDD has been on a publicity campaign, passing out leaflets, promising a peaceful demonstration. Appearing on television programmes, pledging the philosophy of non-violence. Speaking via their own media channels, declaring a movement of democracy.
But is confrontation between the red shirts and the government's security personnel avoidable? And if there's a confrontation, is violence avoidable?
Whether I agree with the movement or not is a non-issue here. After all, if we aspire towards true democracy, then we must learn to live with differences, whether we like it or not.
The UDD promises a peaceful protest and I shall give them the benefit of the doubt. In truth, I sincerely believe that the majority of the red shirts want only to stage a peaceful rally and that violence is not in their agenda.
However, in a crowd of 100,000, it only takes a few hundred to wreak havoc.
The ''bad elements'' or the violent minority exist in any movement - whether within the red shirts, the yellow shirts, the army or even the government.
Images from April 2009 are still fresh in my mind: Weapon-wielding red shirts breaking into the Royal Cliff Hotel in Pattaya and chasing away Asean leaders. Busses set on fire and chaos reigning the capital city during the Songkran holidays. Angry men and women wielding axes and machetes, throwing rocks and punches all over Bangkok. A mob out of control attacked the prime minister's car.
The purpose of the gathering of the red shirts this weekend is to topple the government, forcing the prime minister to resign or to dissolve the parliament and call a general election.
Can this be done without chaos and violence?
Mr Jatuporn has given the government the deadline of Monday, March 15, to dissolve the parliament. The question then becomes: What will Mr Jatuporn and the red shirts do to force the issue?
Let's face the truth. A peaceful song and dance sort of rally will not get the result. The UDD has to push the government, to create a situation so the government would no longer have control of the city. And if the government doesn't have control, then the prime minister will be forced to resign.
For this to occur, the red shirts have to paralyse Bangkok - take over the streets and stage sit-ins and block traffic. If they are successful in bringing Bangkok to a halt, then that means they have taken control of the city. The city would be at their mercy.
If they take control of the city, then Prime Minister Abhisit loses control of the city. In which case, according to Thai political decorum, he will have to tender his resignation and there will be a parliamentary election.
Given the growing friction between coalition partner the Bhumjaitai Party and the ruling Democrats, the prime minister may not get the votes in the parliament - if Newin Chidchob and his faction defected back into the arms of Thaksin Shinawatra.
House Speaker Chai Chidchob, Newin's father, has said publicly that there is such a possibility. In his exact words: ''Newin might return to embrace Thaksin.''
If such is the case, the Puea Thai party may take power. But if he wins the votes and retains his position, what then will the UDD do? Will they resort to desperate measures?
But we are getting ahead of ourselves here. The critical issue is today, Sunday, March 14.
To topple the Abhisit government and usher the Puea Thai party into power is the agenda of Thaksin Shinawatra's three lieutenants: Jatuporn Prompan, Nattawut Saikua and Veera Muksikpong.
They must deliver. But how will they deliver? They promise a peaceful protest, but words are just that, words. Images from April 2009 show that they are capable of otherwise.
Violence doesn't even have to appear intentional. In a tense situation, in a confrontation, any number of things can trigger violence. And if it gets to that, the Abhisit government must take control of the situation and pacify the red shirts as quickly and with as little bloodshed as possible, if they hope to remain in power.
Though with that said, whoever ends up the victor in this political conflict, it is the humble opinion of this writer that neither side of the conflict is worth a single drop of Thai blood. Neither is the answer to Thailand's progress and development as a democracy.