Hua Hin Forum

HHTel wrote: ↑Tue May 19, 2020 12:15 pm I wasn't saying that I accept the figures. Just pointing out that the numbers are calculated the same as every other country in the world. Whether the count for confirmed cases is correct or not is speculation which would also apply to every other country in the world.

I do agree

I don't think how cases are calculated is off-topic. It's been my bone of contention about Thailand from the start.

I didn't think there was any uniformity in what is counted in the numbers? Thailands appear to be about hospitalised cases only. The UK includes deaths without testing in their stats, as long as a GP suspects Covid was involved and has said so on the death certificate. But apologies if I have misunderstood you.

Irrespective of how they count the numbers and irrespective of how accurate they really are, one thing that I believe is beyond question, is that compared with any of the major European countries or the USA, the chances of catching Covid-19 in Thailand is significantly less


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Let me clarify. The argument between me and Buksi was not about the validity of published numbers, just a basic maths problem.

I accept that the published numbers of infections are open to criticism but without evidence, that's just speculation. You could say the same of pretty much any country.

Buksi was right in so much as it was 'off topic'. Simple maths of the published figures has nothing to do with the overall situation.

Dannie Boy wrote: ↑Tue May 19, 2020 1:37 pmthe chances of catching Covid-19 in Thailand is significantly less

Yes, I agree with that. I was half reading the latest study about heat and sunshine earlier (not yet peer reviewed) and they seemed to be implying that whilst there may be something in that, they felt there was more likely to be natural immunity. Who knows? Certainly not the experts.

HHTel wrote: ↑Tue May 19, 2020 1:45 pmI accept that the published numbers of infections are open to criticism but without evidence, that's just speculation. You could say the same of pretty much any country.

Which is why I find it frustrating that so many, whether the media or just those commenting on the stats. treat the numbers as gospel. In regards to Thailand, someone recently stated that Thailand's figures are an enigma. I thought that fair comment.

HHTel wrote: ↑Tue May 19, 2020 1:45 pm Let me clarify. The argument between me and Buksi was not about the validity of published numbers, just a basic maths problem.

It was partly about that validity as Thailand is claiming that it only has 118 total infections, which is less than some tiny island nations with populations in the thousands, not tens of millions.

The calculation of these "stats" is different for every country, and considering this one is not testing anyone (dead or alive), it has no idea how many infections or fatalities there have been, so those precious numbers that people keep quoting and treating as gospel are just pie in the sky.

Sorry, Buksi. The calculation we were discussing i.e. Total infections - total recoveries - total deaths = currently active cases, which includes those that are serious.

Pick any country you like. The math is the same.
You were implying that the maths for stats is different for Thailand. IT'S NOT!

Shall we drop it now.

Just to repeat your post which started this futile lesson in maths:

Thailand still can't get its numbers right. If you deduct the total recovered and deaths from the total infections you get 118. Minus those 61 serious off that, so what has happened to the remaining 57?

We established what the missing 57 was, and you've completely missed the point, so yes - drop it.

Exactly. There was never a missing 57.

With regard to other countries published figures, the accuracy depends directly on testing. All figures produced are based on 'infections found'. The only way a country's figures could be 100% correct is if number of tests equalled the country's population. There is no country that is even close to that.
Therefore all stats, regardless of the country, is open to speculation.

https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30388121

Nine Thais arrived back from London with high fever on Monday (May 18), while three more from Singapore have been placed under investigation for Covid-19.

Kittiphong Kittikhajorn, deputy director of operations at Suvarnabhumi Airport, said on Tuesday (May 19) that airport staff screened passengers who arrived on EVA Air flight BR068 from London yesterday. “Out of 264 passengers, nine had high fevers and were rushed to hospital immediately,” he said. “The rest were transported to government-designated quarantine facilities, which include Jomtien Palm Beach Hotel in Chonburi, and Movenpick Hotel and Qiu Hotel in Bangkok.

”The UK has the highest incidence of Covid-19 in Europe, with 246,406 confirmed cases and 34,796 deaths as of Tuesday.

On Monday evening, another 130 Thais returned from Singapore aboard Singapore Airlines flight SQ976.

“Staff separated three passengers from the rest, as they displayed coronavirus-like symptoms, and sent them to hospital for investigation,” said Kittiphong. “The rest were transported to the Ambassador Jomtien Hotel to complete the mandatory 14-day quarantine.”

The screening and transportation of passengers were carried out by airport staff, Department of Disease Control officials and police from local stations in Samut Prakan province. Region 1 police chief Pol Lt Gen Amphol Buarabporn also visited the airport on Monday to oversee the process and offer moral support as well as supplies to officials on duty.

One comment and one question:

1) 9 very ill with 264 total in a metal tube for many hours, there will be more assuredly.

2) Who pays for meals, laundry and all the other necessities of life while these people are in a hotel, in quarantine? Has anyone talked to a person who has been through the Thai 14 day quarantine?

Quarantine for returning Thai citizens is paid for by the government. Even the hotels that have offered their premises for state quarantine are getting their accommodation fees paid for by the government.

Not so for non-Thais unfortunately.

caller wrote:

HHTel wrote: ↑Tue May 19, 2020 12:15 pm I wasn't saying that I accept the figures. Just pointing out that the numbers are calculated the same as every other country in the world. Whether the count for confirmed cases is correct or not is speculation which would also apply to every other country in the world.

I do agree

The UK includes deaths without testing in their stats, as long as a GP suspects Covid was involved and has said so on the death certificate.

Is this actually true as I have seen it stated a number of times but find it hard to believe that a death is recorded as Covid related even though the deceased hasn’t been tested positive.

There is a long list of symptoms, including shortness of breath, that are a potential diagnosis for the virus. A patient that dies displaying a symptom is recorded as a Covid death?

One has to wonder how someone dies without having a shortness of breath

If this is the case then the actual Covid related death numbers around the world are inflated and the virus isn’t perhaps as fatal as first thought?


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caller wrote: ↑Tue May 19, 2020 1:53 pm

HHTel wrote: ↑Tue May 19, 2020 1:45 pmI accept that the published numbers of infections are open to criticism but without evidence, that's just speculation. You could say the same of pretty much any country.

Which is why I find it frustrating that so many, whether the media or just those commenting on the stats. treat the numbers as gospel. In regards to Thailand, someone recently stated that Thailand's figures are an enigma. I thought that fair comment.

I agree an 'enigma' is fair comment. That could apply to many countries who have puzzling numbers.
We are currently 70th on the 'leader board' out of 215. Cambodia, for example have zero deaths and zero active cases. Now there's an enigma! That goes for many of our neighbours. Laos with zero deaths and only 5 active cases. Vietnam with a population of 97 million, zero deaths and just 61 active cases.
There are many enigmas.

Figures can be puzzling but I don't think the majority treat these figures as gospel. But without any evidence to the contrary, these are the only numbers we have.