Global Warming/Climate Change 2

[PeteC]

Here's another one about the sun causing colder winters in the UK. Pete

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-14029995

[PeteC]

Another article that puts a whole new twist on cause and effect thinking. Pete

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-14002264

[STEVE G]

Another article that puts a whole new twist on cause and effect thinking. Pete

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-14002264

That would certainly make sense as long as the particles from coal burning are getting high enough up above the majority of the atmosphere.

[charlesh]

"Fly ash material solidifies while suspended in the exhaust gases and is collected by electrostatic precipitators or filter bags. Since the particles solidify while suspended in the exhaust gases, fly ash particles are generally spherical in shape and range in size from 0.5 µm to 100 µm. They consist mostly of silicon dioxide (SiO2), which is present in two forms: amorphous, which is rounded and smooth, and crystalline, which is sharp, pointed and hazardous; aluminium oxide (Al2O3) and iron oxide (Fe2O3). Fly ashes are generally highly heterogeneous, consisting of a mixture of glassy particles with various identifiable crystalline phases such as quartz, mullite, and various iron oxides."

Source Wikipedia and I have not included the various types of fly ash which for all intents and purposes are trapped by a variety of means including electrostatic and bag precipitators, scrubbers for the NOx's and SOX's and much ending up in either fly ash ponds or in pozzolanic cement types. The trace elements can be further used for gardens!

As someone who used to analyse fly ash but then again what would I know. I find it at best speculative that Richard Black now claims that aerosol sulphate particles are the reason for the anomaly. I suppose he might use that as an excuse for acid rain but NOT "global warming" aka climate change.

HHF is correct - perhaps governments are creating a climate of change (pun) as a means to increase taxation and leverage in areas where they have little understanding or will to do anything and are buying their science and that certainly may not be scientific but highly relevant in the area of subjectivity/objectivity.

I wonder how Mr scientific reporter Black would explain the mini ice age in the 17th C !!!

[STEVE G]

perhaps governments are creating a climate of change (pun) as a means to increase taxation

Are you suggesting that when Svante Arrhenius wrote in 1908, "If the quantity of carbonic acid in the air should sink to one-half its present percentage, the temperature would fall by about 4°; a diminution to one-quarter would reduce the temperature by 8°. On the other hand, any doubling of the percentage of carbon dioxide in the air would raise the temperature of the earth's surface by 4°; and if the carbon dioxide were increased fourfold, the temperature would rise by 8°." he just had an eye on taxation?

[charlesh]

I suspect that Arrhenius must have quoted those figures in an effort to explain a rather complex multifaceted cause and effect relationship to a rather simple reporter! I think you will find it is a hypothesis not a direct relationship ie. not set in stone.

As much as I hate to quote selectively have a squizz at this for which Arrhenius is best known amongst chemists - his piece de resistance (order of reaction and rate of reaction)!

"However, if additional evidence is available, from theory and/or from experiment (such as density dependence), there is no obstacle to incisive tests of the Arrhenius law.

Another common modification is the stretched exponential form

where β is a unitless number of order 1. This is typically regarded as a fudge factor to make the model fit the data, but can have theoretical meaning, for example showing the presence of a range of activation energies or in special cases like the Mott variable range hopping".

Maybe the use of words like "additional evidence, make the model fit and fudge factor" may have an impact on those that want to think objectively
.
Even the great Arrhenius would admit to the possibility of error!

PS and I don't know who he was paid by - hopefully not Nobel.

Too many people are jumping on the bandwagon based on "fudge" factors and misleading reports which obviously oversensationalse a pinpoint in time.

[STEVE G]

Even the great Arrhenius would admit to the possibility of error!

So which bit of greenhouse gas theory is in error?
Obviously there are a great deal of unknowns in all the possible effects and feedback mechanisms of any effect of increased C02 in the atmosphere but I thought the fact that the resistivity of the component parts lead to the average temperature of a planet was accepted by all credible science.

[hhfarang]

all credible science.

That's the problem.... it's impossible to differentiate between the credible and "incredible" scientists!

[STEVE G]

all credible science.

That's the problem.... it's impossible to differentiate between the credible and "incredible" scientists!

I don't find it a such a big problem to believe that mankind has cocked-up the environment and to be honest, I would be extremely dubious of the motives of anyone who tried to make me believe otherwise.

[redzonerocker]

That's the problem.... it's impossible to differentiate between the credible and "incredible" scientists!

exactly

[hhfarang]

I don't find it a such a big problem to believe that mankind has cocked-up the environment and to be honest, I would be extremely dubious of the motives of anyone who tried to make me believe otherwise.

I have no doubt that man has cocked up the environment in many ways. That's not really my argument. I'm dubious of those who have solutions to the problems that will make millions for them or their cronies and possibly do worse damage in the long run because they twist their argument and the facts for political or financial reasons... very few of those touting imminent disaster from global warming are like you Steve (I believe you really care about the environment with no hidden motive or agenda).

[STEVE G]

Thank you for the kind words HH.To be honest, I would hate to be remembered in history as part of the generation that could have done something but didn't really think it was worth the effort, or because it might be a bit too expensive, or we thought it was just a trick to raise taxation.
When you look at some of mans great achievments of the past, we don't really seem to be bothering too much with anything at the moment which is a shame really because surely trying to save the world is worth something.

[charlesh]

Trying to save the world SG is a noble quest and one which the admirable Don Q would be proud. Jumping on a bandwagon (any) is a dangerous thing as is resorting to selective science. Being dismissive of those with an alternative opinion is equally a problem.You may note that my hypothesis of a world in chaos is perhaps similar to yours however the etiology is different.

You may also remember more recent flavours of the month including the flu pandemic and the 20thC computer disaster (cash cow for programmers) amazingly all bandied with great gusto by the media. Looks like most people just take in what they want to believe given their inability to influence outcomes is almost zero even at the ballot box. Scare mongering perhaps???? Thank God the News of the World has fallen on its sword despite the lack of accountability and acceptance of responsibility (sorry for the digression but possibly relevant).

Mea culpa mea culpa !

What is your take SG on the role of recent volcanic activity on climate and the production of SOX's/NOX's and sub 100 micron particles?

PS. be careful of taking theories that are reproducible at a laboratory level (micro) and apply them to the world (macro).

[STEVE G]

To be honest, in my opinion if we're not sure if fossil fuels are destroying the environment, the logical thing to do would be to stop using them until we are sure instead of playing Russian roulette with the world.
They are after all a finite source and what we have might be of more use for essential services for future generations.

[hhfarang]

To be honest, in my opinion if we're not sure if fossil fuels are destroying the environment, the logical thing to do would be to stop using them until we are sure instead of playing Russian roulette with the world.

Again Steve, I agree with you, but how, how, how, can we do that. We are addicted to petroleum, not just for fuel, but nearly everything, and most of the products made from it are not good for the environment either because they are difficult to get rid of.

They are after all a finite source and what we have might be of more use for essential services for future generations.

You try to go without anything made from petroleum for one day. That means you have to walk everywhere, and be careful that none of your clothing is made of plastic such as buttons or zippers or shoe soles. You can't eat or drink from plastic or use any appliance which all have plastic parts nowadays.

You can't use any of these. Let me know when you start... I'll start my stopwatch.

List of petroleum based products from saveandconserve.com

ammonia
anesthetics
antifreeze
antihistamines
antiseptics
artificial limbs
artificial turf
aspirin
awnings
balloons
ballpoint pens
bandages
basketballs
bearing grease
bicycle tires
boats
cameras
candles
car battery cases
car enamel
cassettes
caulking
cd player
cd's
clothes
clothesline
cold cream
combs
cortisone
crayons
curtains
dashboards
denture adhesive
dentures
deodorant
detergents
dice
diesel
dishes
dishwasher
dresses
drinking cups
dyes
electric blankets
electrician's tape
enamel
epoxy
eyeglasses
fan belts
faucet washers
fertilizers
fishing boots
fishing lures
fishing rods
floor wax
folding doors
food preservatives
football cleats
football helmets
footballs
footballs
gasoline
glycerin
golf bags
golf balls
guitar strings
hair coloring
hair curlers
hand lotion
heart valves
house paint
ice chests
ice cube trays
ink
insect repellent
insecticides
life jackets
linings
linoleum
lipstick
luggage
model cars
mops
motor oil
motorcycle helmet
movie film
nail polish
nylon rope
oil filters
paint
paint brushes
paint rollers
panty hose
parachutes
percolators
perfumes
petroleum jelly
pillows
plastic wood
purses
putty
refrigerant
refrigerators
roller skates
roofing
rubber cement
rubbing alcohol
safety glasses
shag rugs
shampoo
shaving cream
shoe polish
shoes
shower curtains
skis
slacks
soap
soft contact lenses
solvents
speakers
sports car bodies
sun glasses
surf boards
sweaters
synthetic rubber
telephones
tennis rackets
tents
tires
toilet seats
tool boxes
tool racks
toothbrushes
toothpaste
transparent tape
trash bags
tv cabinets
umbrellas
upholstery
vaporizers
vitamin capsules
water pipes
wheels
yarn

Second list found on Gasprices-usa.com:

air conditioners
ammonia
anti-histamines
antiseptics
artificial turf
asphalt
aspirin
balloons
bandages
boats
bottles
bras
bubble gum
butane
cameras
candles
car batteries
car bodies
carpet
cassette tapes
caulking
cds
chewing gum
combs/brushes
computers
contacts
cortisone
crayons
cream
denture adhesives
deodorant
detergents
dice
dishwashing liquid
dresses
dryers
electric blankets
electrician’s tape
fertilizers
fishing lures
fishing rods
floor wax
footballs
glues
glycerin
golf balls
guitar strings
hair
hair coloring
hair curlers
hearing aids
heart valves
heating oil
house paint
ice chests
ink
insect repellent
insulation
jet fuel
life jackets
linoleum
lip balm
lipstick
loudspeakers
medicines
mops
motor oil
motorcycle helmets
movie film
nail polish
oil filters
paddles
paint brushes
paints
parachutes
paraffin
pens
perfumes
petroleum jelly
plastic chairs
plastic cups
plastic forks
plastic wrap
plastics
plywood adhesives
refrigerators
roller-skate wheels
roofing paper
rubber bands
rubber boots
rubber cement
rubbish bags
running shoes
saccharine
seals
shirts (non-cotton)
shoe polish
shoes
shower curtains
solvents
spectacles
stereos
sweaters
table tennis balls
tape recorders
telephones
tennis rackets
thermos
tights
toilet seats
toners
toothpaste
transparencies
transparent tape
tv cabinets
typewriter/computer ribbons
tires
umbrellas
upholstery
vaporizers
vitamin capsules
volleyballs
water pipes
water skis
wax
wax paper