Hua Hin Forum

centermid7 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 10, 2020 10:13 am ^^ so what you post is gospel truth and whatever anyone else posts is . . . something less ???

sateeb wrote: ↑Mon Feb 10, 2020 10:27 am And your source is?..or are you the source?, then we can't actually believe you

I'ts a bit like a famous Joseph Heller novel

Not me ... take your pick.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/05/worl ... rship.html
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/03/wu ... i-jinping/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/0 ... -lockdown/
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... man-rights
https://www.thedailybeast.com/chinas-de ... ting-worse

Or is it all too 'social media' for you ...

Read all them. Much of it is old news. There is no question that China covered up the initial release of the virus. They admit that the Wuhan officials who 'downplayed' it to the point of arresting whistleblowers will be punished. They'll probably do this just to appease public anger.

But is that still the case now? There is no benefit to themselves to suppress it further. Transparency will even serve themselves as well as the rest of the world.

For every negative report that you can come up with, Buksida, I will direct you to 10 others that are more positive. People generally fall into 3 groups, optimists, pessimists, or those that are just 'sitting on the fence'. I know which group I'm in and I think we can guess which you are in.

I'm in the group that doesn't believe what governments and politicians want you to believe.

So what does that make you? A libertarian maybe, or just an anarchist?

A cynic.

Anyhoo, my opinion is pretty much irrelevant in all of this so back to your stats ...

This was a strange little report from the Nation the other day, but this is from The Thaiger, which basically copied the article:

New criteria push the number of suspected virus cases to 615

Published19 hours agoonFebruary 9, 2020
ByGreeley Pulitzer

The director-general of the Department of Disease Control (DDC) said on Friday there were 615 people in Thailand suspected of carrying the 2019-nCoV coronavirus. He attributed the rise in suspected cases to updated criteria generating more details and redefining the term “suspected.”

The number of confirmed cases has risen to 32 as of today, 10 of whom have recovered and been discharged, with 22 still being treated in hospital. Of seven new cases confirmed yesterday, one was among the 138 Thais flown home this week from Hubei province in China, where the outbreak began.

Head of the Mental Health Department Kiattiphum Wongrajit said Friday that the returnees were all feeling stress and three showed signs of depression.
“The mental condition of all returnees is being continuously monitored.”
A spokeman for the DDC says an infected Chinese tourist being treated at Rajavithi Hospital in Bangkok has improved, while a 70-year-old Thai bus driver remains on a ventilator because he also has tuberculosis.

Okay. I'll stick that label on you. Buksi, the cynic.

Ever looked up what that means?

"a person who believes that people are motivated purely by self-interest rather than acting for honorable or unselfish reasons"

Substitute 'people' for 'politicians/authoritarian states' and you've got it.

Now less about me and

"A skeptic doesn't believe anything without strong reasons, which is why it is also associated with doubt, especially when something hasn't been experienced yet. Cynicism is believing the worst of something or someone. It has nothing to do with evidence. ... But doubt also often has a negative connotation.

Anyhow Buksi, whatever you are, cynic or skeptic, undoubtedly we are both different an unlike in some parts of the world, free to be such.

OK enough personal bickering, back on topic.
The number of infected cases will always be under called. By now the word must be out in China--unless you are very sick and suffering shortness of breath, there is nothing a hospital can do for you , so why get diagnosed and labelled and possibly shipped to a "concentration type " hospital.
Deaths on the other hand tend to be counted more accurately and death is not a matter of severity its a Yes/No situation. So, we can be sure the authorities have a genuine number on that. Are they releasing this accurate figure, who knows but I cant see too much point in not doing so.

I think the bickering has been concluded.
I agree that infected cases are most likely under called. I've said this along with the opinion of various medics around the world. There must have been cases that were very mild or had no symptoms at all. These will have recovered and produced the anti-bodies necessary to protect them for a while. How long that protection is, nobody knows.

Singapore's PM has said that if infections get to an unmanageable number, it would be futile for hospitals to deal with them all. He has said that the policy in Singapore should that happen would be to advise people with mild to moderate symptoms to refer themselves to their GP if they think they need treatment. This is assuming that the fatality remains low.

It is possible that this may turn into another 'seasonal flu'. We've dealt with that (matter of opinion) for years.

I've been here since early November last year

I honestly would say that last Friday night and last night were two of the most busy nights I've seen in HH town(binta block bars)

There's plenty of people here considering this virus scare. Somewhat of a slightly younger profile than the usual 55+ couples too???

Interesting....



Sent from my Redmi Note 4 using Tapatalk

Some updates from earlier this morning: -

The UK health secretary declared on Monday that the new coronavirus was a serious and imminent threat to public health, a step that gives the government additional powers to fight the spread of the virus.

The Department for Health and Social Care said:

The secretary of state declares that the incidence or transmission of novel Coronavirus constitutes a serious and imminent threat to public health, and the measures outlined in these regulations are considered as an effective means of delaying or preventing further transmission of the virus.

China’s death toll has jumped to 908, with 40,000 confirmed infections.
Another 60 passengers on the stricken Diamond Princess cruise ship in Japan have tested positive for coronavirus, taking the total number of infections on the ship to 130.
Tens of millions of Chinese have gone back to work today after the extended lunar new year break.
The World Health Organization has sent a team of international experts to Beijing to help combat the epidemic.
The WHO boss has warned that confirmed cases of coronavirus being transmitted by people who have never travelled to China could be the “tip of the iceberg”.
A memorial has been held in New York for the whistleblower doctor, Li Wenliang, who died last week from coronavirus.
China’s food prices spiked by 20.6% in January.
A citizen journalist in Wuhan, Chen Qiushi, who has been reporting on the coronavirus epidemic, has been missing since Thursday.


Regular Updates At: - https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... db2faf4b3a

Hmmm. Statement from the UK health secretary after only 4 cases!! This was mainly enacted to give the government extra powers. Nothing wrong with that. It means that the new regulations are empowered to take sensible precautions if needed.

In accordance with Regulation 3, the Secretary of State declares that the incidence or transmission of novel Coronavirus constitutes a serious and imminent threat to public health, and the measures outlined in these regulations are considered as an effective means of delaying or preventing further transmission of the virus.

In accordance with Regulation 2, the Secretary of State designates Arrowe Park Hospital and Kents Hill Park as an “isolation” facility and Wuhan and Hubei province as an “infected area”.

I hope I don't have to 'eat my words' but the evidence I see is that recoveries are outstripping deaths, growth is declining, the gap between deaths and recoveries of cases with an outcome is widening. Things are pointing in the right direction even if it doesn't appear so.

Currently infected: 36,252
Mild cases 29,758 (82% of currently infected)
Serious or critical: 6,494 (18% of currently infected)

Recovered or died: 4,376
Recovered/discharged: 3,466 (79% of the total with outcome)
Died 910 (21% of cases with an outcome) Keep an eye on this percentage. That will eventually flatten out giving a close to true fatality rate.

The promising signs are the widening gap between recoverd/discharged and those died.
Also the growing number of recoveries. I know that deaths per day are also growing but recoveries are growing at a faster rate.