Weather in Hua Hin & Thailand

[HHTel]

I'm sure I read somewhere that there hasn't been a dry month in the last year!

[Nereus]

Here in Ghost City(Bangkok) it looks like a big rain storm coming, but it will probably fade away. Huge high pressure ridge pushing down from China that is producing east to north east winds off the South China sea.

https://www.tmd.go.th/en/weather_map.php

synoptic.jpg (63.07 KiB) Viewed 1299 times

[PeteC]

Weather Warning
"Storm “PABUK”"
No. 7 Time Issued : January 2, 2019

At 4.00 a.m. on 2 January 2019, tropical storm “PABUK” over the lower South China Sea located at latitude 6.1 degree north, longitude 108.7 degree east with maximum sustained winds of 65 km/hr. The storm was moving west at a speed of 10 km/hr through the tip of Indochina expectedly to the lower Gulf by 2-3 January 2019. By 3-5 January 2019, it will affect the South with more rain and some torrential downpours. People should beware of the severe conditions. Affected areas are as followings:

3-4 January: Isolated torrential downpours in Surat Thani, Nakhon Si Thammarart, Phatthalung, Songkhla, Pattani, Yala, Narathiwat, Krabi, Trang and Satun.

4-5 January: Isolated torrential downpours in Phetchaburi, Prachuap Khiri Khan, Chumphon, Surat Thani, Nakhon Si Thammarart, Phatthalung, Songkhla, Pattani, Yala, Narathiwat, Ranong, Phangnga, Phuket, Krabi, Trang and Satun.

The strong winds are forecast for both the Gulf and the Andaman Sea with waves up to 2-4 meters high in the Gulf and about 2 meters high in the Andaman Sea. People in the Gulf should be aware of inshore surges. All ships should proceed with caution, and small boats keep ashore lasting 5 January 2019.

The advisory is in effect on 2 January 2019 at 5.00 a.m.

[PeteC]

Note: This sounds as if getting more serious by the hour.


TROPICAL STORM PABUK TO CLEAVE THAI SOUTH FROM STEM TO STERN

http://www.khaosodenglish.com/news/2019 ... m-to-stern


BANGKOK — Disaster officials were holding emergency meetings Wednesday to prepare for a newly upgraded tropical storm that is bearing down on the south of Thailand.

The storm, now called Pabuk and moving west at 10kph from the South China Sea into the Gulf of Thailand with gusts of up to 65kph, is likely to be the most devastating one to hit the region since 1962, a meteorologist said today. It’s set to make landfall Thursday at the southern tip of Thailand and then careen all the way north, according to Seree Supratid of the Climate Change and Disaster Center at Rangsit University.

“It will sweep up the whole south beginning from Narathiwat and Pattani. On Friday, it will move up to Songkhla, Nakhon Si Thammarat and Surat Thani. Then on Saturday, it will go to Chumphon and [Prachuap Khiri Khan],” he said.

Read: South Warned of First Tropical Storm Since 1962 Disaster
http://www.khaosodenglish.com/news/2019 ... -disaster/

Although Pabuk is less powerful than Typhoon Gay, which devastated Chumphon and Prachuap in 1989, Seree said it could cause more damage than a tropical storm that ravaged 12 southern provinces in 1962.

“The direction is different. This one will sweep through wider areas,” he said. “The damage could be greater than Harriet. Rainfall is expected to be up to 200 millimeters per day.”

More than 900 people died when Harriet cut straight across Nakhon Si Thammarat through Krabi, Phuket and Phang Nga. It went out to the Andaman Sea the following day.

On Tuesday, the state petrochemical company PTT announced it had evacuated some staff from a drilling platform off the coast of Songkhla and suspended other offshore operations.

[Nereus]

Hmm, maybe. The central pressure is not all that low for a cyclone, the surface wind gradient shown on the synoptic is not all that strong, and the influence of the huge high pressure ridge pushing down from China is tending to "shunt" the cell further to the South. Hope that I am wrong!

[hhinner]

Looking at the forecast track animation on windy.com it seems like Hua Hin might get a bit of rain, but looks like Ban Saphan would be a good place not to be in when the storm hits.

[Nereus]

It has to asked if this is just another kneejerk reaction, or CYA prediction?
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Koh Samui on alert as storm Pabuk nears

https://www.bangkokpost.com/news/genera ... abuk-nears

SURAT THANI: Local residents, tourists and tour operators have been advised to exercise extreme caution as Koh Samui braces for possibly severe weather conditions caused by tropical storm Pabuk.

Surat Thani governor Witchawut Jinto on Wednesday ordered officials from the provincial marine office to strictly monitor all ships, including speedboats and ferries, in the province from Thursday to Saturday. The storm is expected to hit all districts, including Koh Samui and Koh Phangan.

All national parks and tourist spots must be ready to close immediately if the situation demands it, he added. Flash floods are possible in some areas in the province.

A command centre has been set up on Koh Samui by the district office, and district chief Kittiphob Roddon on Wednesday advised tourist boats to cancel services on Wednesday.

The Ang Thong Marine National Park will close from Thursday to Saturday for the safety of tourists.

Seatran Ferry announced that Thursday afternoon boat service between Don Sak district and Samui island will be cancelled. The last ferries on Thursday will leave both the mainland and Samui at 1pm.
The firm will not accept advance reservations for ferries on Friday and Saturday and the schedule could be adjusted if necessary, it added.

Raja Ferry, another ferry operator, could not be reached when contacted by the Bangkok Post.

Pabuk has gathered strength, turning from a tropical depression into a storm on Tuesday, and could bring torrential rain and high seas to the Gulf of Thailand over the next three days.

The weather update of the Meteorological Department at 5pm said the storm could move through Chumphon and Surat Thani on Friday night. Most parts of Koh Samui will see heavy rain until Saturday and rough seas are also predicted, it added.

The storm will also hit all provinces in the southern region, including provinces on the Andaman coast.
Coastal fishermen are towing their boats from the sea in the Gulf of Thailand to prevent storm damage.

Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha told the cabinet to advise all trawlers and tourist boats operating on the Gulf and Andaman sea to take exercise caution or temporarily cancel their operations as the storm approaches.

Royal Thai Navy commander Adm Leuchai Ruddit ordered HTMS Angthong, a landing platform dock frigate, to remain on standby at the Sattahip naval base to help people affected by the storm.

[migrant]

Looking at the forecast track animation on windy.com it seems like Hua Hin might get a bit of rain, but looks like Ban Saphan would be a good place not to be in when the storm hits.

Yea, looks like we're screwed (need a wet emoji)

[Nereus]

Not sure why TMD are calling this storm a "cyclone". The latest synoptic(06 UTC midday) is showing the cell off the coast of Kotabharu Malaysia. The maximum wind speed is posted @ 35 knots, the central pressure of 1004 hPa.

A severe tropical storm is designated as a tropical cyclone when it reaches wind speeds of 64 knots (118 km/h, 74 mph)

.

The maximum wind speed shown at Prachuap Kiri Khan at 925 hPa(around 2,000 ft AMSL) is from the north at 25 knots. There may well be some rain associated with it, but I am damned if I can see any "cyclone".

[Nereus]

I must have been here far too long, as I just cannot believe that all the hype about this storm is not being orchestrated from the top, just in case.
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Bracing for the storm

https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opi ... -the-storm

People across Thailand are praying for the southern region as Tropical Storm Pabuk, which originated in the South China Sea, inches closer to the coastline.

The Thai Meteorological Department, which has been keeping a close eye on the storm, has issued a series of warnings since the storm formed in the lower part of the South China Sea. The rapid response to the storm shows that local authorities are well aware of its position and possible impact. For this, they deserve credit.

The government has set up a "war room" to oversee mitigation operations, and authorities have been instructed to synchronise their operations to minimise the impact of the storm and prevent casualties -- which is the government's top priority.

Pabuk has drawn widespread attention because it is the first tropical storm expected to hit Thailand outside of the monsoon season in 30 years. The storm was expected to hit three tourist hot spots -- namely Koh Phangan, Koh Tao, and Koh Samui -- tomorrow night, before continuing on its path towards Chumphon, Surat Thani, and three of Thailand's southernmost provinces.

According to the weather warning, the storm is currently moving at 65-80 kilometres per hour, and is likely to cause high waves of around 3-5 metres in the Gulf of Thailand, and 2-3m in the Andaman Sea. While the department has ruled out the possibility of Pabuk developing into a typhoon -- the last time Thailand was hit by a typhoon was Typhoon Gay which devastated Chumphon in 1989 -- it said the severe weather conditions were expected to affect millions of southern residents.

Advanced communication technology has significantly improved Thailand's disaster preparedness. Evacuations have been completed in high-risk areas -- including six districts in Nakhon Si Thammarat -- while temporary shelters are being set up in safe areas. Rescue and health workers are on standby, and a number of schools were closed as a precaution.

Warnings of possible flash floods and mudslides after heavy downpours have been issued, and fishermen have been told not to go out to sea.

A storm like Pabuk -- which was named after a freshwater catfish found in the Mekong -- rarely hits Thailand because of its geographical location, which is favourable compared to the Philippines' and Vietnam's. Before Typhoon Gay, the last severe tropical storm was Harriet, which battered the southern part of the country in 1962, hitting Talum Pook in Nakhon Si Thammarat's Pak Phanang district the hardest.

The most challenging part for the authorities is striking the right balance between keeping the public informed and preparing for a possible disaster, while not stirring up panic at the same time. As such, residents should follow the authorities' instructions and advice.

As this edition went to print, one storm-related death was reported by the media. On Wednesday, a Russian national died in Koh Samui after his family ignored a red-flag warning and went to play in the water. The 56-year old man drowned as he tried to rescue his children who were being pulled by a strong current. Rescuers who retrieved the body said he hit his head on a rock and was carried off by the waves.

Foreign tourists reportedly left several resort towns ahead of the storm yesterday, as flights to Koh Samui and several other affected areas were cancelled.

Arguably, the tropical storm will deal more blows to the economy in the South and add to the plight of southerners, already suffering from the effects of heavy downpours and floods before the New Year.

The government needs to think about an integrated plan that will enable storm-hit areas to recover quickly. Meanwhile, local authorities must ensure help reaches its targets, especially those in remote areas, without delay.

[Nereus]

It is all very well to be prepared, so I hope all of this is not in vain.
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Tourists flee islands as tropical storm Pabuk closes in

https://www.bangkokpost.com/news/genera ... n#cxrecs_s

KHAO LAK, Phangnga: Tens of thousands of tourists have fled some of the country's most popular islands and resort areas as tropical storm Pabuk closes in and threatens to batter the southern region with heavy rains, winds and seven-metre waves.(really, 7 metres?)

Koh Phangan and Koh Tao, packed with holiday-makers during the peak Christmas and New Year season, have emptied out since Wednesday as tourists squeeze onto ferries bound for the southern Thai mainland, with swimming banned and boats set to suspend services.

Pabuk, the country's first tropical storm in the area outside of the monsoon season for around 30 years, is poised to hit the two islands as well as neighbouring Koh Samui on Friday afternoon, before cutting into the mainland.

Packing winds of 104 kilometres per hour, Pabuk is unlikely to intensify into a full-blown typhoon, according to forecasters.

"But we expect waves as high as five or seven metres near the eye of the storm," Phuwieng Prakammaintara, director-general of the Meteorological Department, told reporters.

No official evacuation order has been given but tourists are leaving in droves, with those unable to book flights preparing to see out the storm on eerily deserted islands.

"I think the islands are almost empty... between 30,000 to 50,000 have left since the New Year's Eve countdown parties," Krikkrai Songthanee, Koh Phangan district chief, told AFP.

The acting mayor of Koh Tao, one of Southeast Asia's finest diving spots, said boats to Chumphon on the mainland were crammed with tourists, but several thousand guests were still on the island likely to brave the storm.
"It's difficult to predict the severity of the storm so people should comply with authorities' recommendations."

'Danger flags'

On Koh Samui, a Russian man drowned on Wednesday after his family ignored warnings not to go into the sea.
"A family of three went swimming but the strong current caught a 56-year-old man who drowned," Pol Capt Boonnam Srinarat of Samui Police told AFP.

"Island officials announced the warning and put up the red 'danger' flags... but maybe the family did not think the situation was that serious."

Bangkok Airways, which has a virtual monopoly on the air route to the island, cancelled all flights in and out of Samui on Friday.

Authorities prepared shelters for tourists who decided to wait out the storm or who could not secure seats on ferries for the mainland before services are suspended late Thursday.

Pabuk, which means a giant catfish in Lao, is also expected to dump heavy rain across the south, including tourist hotspots in the Andaman Sea such as Krabi and Phuket.

The Similan National Park, home to pristine beaches and bays, has been closed until Saturday as a precaution as the storm bites hard into business during the peak season.

"I was supposed to stay on a boat and dive all day tomorrow (Friday)," Annick Fleury, a 29-year-old tourist from Geneva told AFP in Khao Lak near Phuket, one of hundreds cutting short -- or re-routing -- their diving holidays in the Andaman area.

"If I can go to Krabi, I'll try to get there tonight. Otherwise I'll have to book myself into a nice hotel and just wait for the storm to pass."

The southernmost provinces of Pattani, Narathiwat and Yala near the Malaysia border are also bracing for flooding.
Thailand's economy is heavily reliant on tourism. The kingdom is expected to welcome a record 40 million people this year, many bound for its southern beaches and resorts.

[Nereus]

At 7.00 a.m. on 4 January 2019, tropical storm “PABUK” over the lower Gulf due 150 km southeast of Nakhon Si Thammarat Province or latitude 7.9 degree north, longitude 101.5 degree east. With maximum sustained winds of 80 km/hr, the storm was moving west-northwest at a speed of 25 km/hr expectedly to make landfall in the evening (4 January) over Nakhon Si thammarat. It will affect the South with widespread rainfalls, and torrential downpours are possible much of the area. People should beware of the severe conditions. Affected areas are as followings: 4 January: Widespread rainfall with isolated torrential downpours and strong wind in Prachuap Khiri Khan, Chumphon, Surat Thani, Nakhon Si T...more

https://www.tmd.go.th/en/

Synoptic charts too big to post. Open and click on them for a bigger view.

[PeteC]

Here are some live 24/7 webcams on Koh Samui you can use to see how the storm is impacting there. Pete 

[Nereus]

Storm Pabuk makes landfall in Nakhon Si Thammarat

https://www.bangkokpost.com/news/genera ... recent_box

Tropical storm Pabuk crossed the coast in Pak Phanang district of Nakhon Si Thammarat on Friday afternoon and was weakening into a depression as it moved towards neighbouring Surat Thani.

The Meteorological Department reported the landfall of the storm at 12.45pm in Pak Phanang. It was moving to the northwest at 18 kilometres per hour. Maximum winds at the centre of the storm were recorded at 75kph.

The storm centre was on its way to Tha Sala district, before it enters Surat Thani, the met office said. It expected the storm to downgrade to a depression before it leaves the southern region and moves into the Andaman Sea.

Laem Talumpuk in Pak Phanang was where the storm first reached the mainland, bringing powerful winds and heavy rain.

Pak Phanang and other areas along the coast were hit by big waves and gusty winds which brought down many trees, some electricity poles and damaged some houses. Pak Phanang was also flooded.

The department warned that heavy rain and strong winds would continue in all southern provinces, while the central provinces of Phetchaburi and Prachuap Khiri Khan could expect gusty winds on Saturday.

[PeteC]

It's actually starting to spit rain now in the Rayong area. Looking at the radar some of it is getting this far up. Pete