Thailand general election fundamentally flawed: Human Rights Watch

[PET]

If the generals think they can dissolve Move Forward now, they may try, but I think that will mean blood on the streets of Bangkok. Maybe Chiang Mai too.

Probably but these are the very same generals that instigated Live Fire Zones on the streets of Bangkok in 2010.

PLEASE get real!

[STEVE G]

If the generals think they can dissolve Move Forward now, they may try, but I think that will mean blood on the streets of Bangkok. Maybe Chiang Mai too.

Probably but these are the very same generals that instigated Live Fire Zones on the streets of Bangkok in 2010.

PLEASE get real!

"There are some divisions in the armed forces," said Prof Surachart Bumrungsuk, a military and politics expert at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University.

"Some units don't want to be involved in such a crackdown, others wanted it to be more assertive.

Gen Anupong has said he favours a political solution to the crisis
"It is no secret that General Prayuth Chan-ocha would have liked a harder crackdown," he said.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8615910.stm

12 April 2010

[VincentD]

I was here when they had the 'walkthrough' in 1992; my SIL remembers the really bad one before that and the contention is that the reported casualties and the actual numbers are totally out of whack.

[buksida]

347107227_888678678892840_2648161345055050639_n.jpg

Source: Thai Enquirer

(224.54 KiB) Downloaded 554 times

These geographic election maps always fascinate me, no surprise that Bangkok, Phuket, and the North voted MF and Issan wanted Thaksin back (aside from Buriram who voted for Anutin). The deep south still favours the Democrats as does Prachuap apparently and a couple of central northern provinces wanted the junta to remain.

Its a bit different from the last map which was blue in Bangkok and everywhere south and red everywhere north of the capital.

I think demographics had a big part in the win for MF, the voter base is getting younger ... even my son could vote this time around (he didn't want to, but I kinda incentivized him to put one on orange ).

[Ratsima]

I wonder what MF's strategy is for electing a PM? It seems clear that Pita cannot get much, if any, Senate support. Already some Senators have publicly said that they won't vote for him. On Inside Thailand this morning a Senator said that there are only about 20 "independent" Senators out of 250. That seems to mean that 230 will refuse to vote for any MF nominee; mainly it seems, based on their feeling that MF wants to abolish the monarchy. (They do not.)

The MF/PT coalition might have a better chance of forming a majority government if they nominated someone like Srettha (เศรษฐา) who doesn't have the anti-monarchy baggage and who might be able to garner more support in the Senate.

But, what do I know?

[Dannie Boy]

I think what all of us know, is that getting past the first hurdle was relatively easy - the only small surprise was that MF got more votes than PT, but the next stage of winning over the Senate is going to be much more difficult. How did the military get power in the first place, by fair or foul means - they’re not going to roll over and accept losing power without a fight - let’s hope it’s not a bloody fight and that in the end, democracy wins the day, but history suggests that won’t be easy!!

[HHTel]

As no party is likely to win an absolute majority in the 500-member House of Representatives, a new coalition government will need to be formed and there are some potential coalition formulae.

Since senators’ votes are still needed for the approval of the appointment of Thailand’s 30th prime minister, parties which form a coalition government need their support if they cannot muster more than half of the 750 combined votes of the House and the Senate.

The first potential coalition is of all the current opposition parties, with Move Forward at the core. Their combined votes, however, are still short of the 375 votes required for the endorsement of their prime ministerial candidate. So, this formula will not work, according to Associate Professor Pichai Rattanadilok Na Phuket, a lecturer at the National Institute of Development Administration (NIDA).

Given the Move Forward party’s strong stand on not associating with either the Palang Pracharath or United Thai Nation parties, the alternative formula is to bring in another party from the conservative bloc, either Bhumjaithai or the Democrats.

If the Bhumjaithai party is brought in, the coalition, led by Move Forward, will comfortably have the votes for its leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, to be appointed prime minister, without needing support from the Senate.

There may be a problem with the choice of Bhumjaithai, however, because the party may bargain for control of Grade A ministries, such as Public Health, Transport and Tourism and Sports.

The other option is to bring in the Democrats, but the votes would still fall short of the 375 votes needed for the approval of the prime ministerial candidate. So, two more parties, namely Chartthaipattana and Chart Pattana Kla, could be invited, but the coalition would still be short of votes, said Associate Professor Pichai.

This coalition would need the support of some 30 senators, which is quite possible, he said.

Another potential formula is a coalition of the current government parties, which will have a combined vote of about 240 MPs and the support of at least 135 senators plus some rebel MPs from the opposite camp. Pichai dismisses this scenario as impossible though.

Another extreme formula involves isolation of the Move Forward and the United Thai Nation parties by the rest, which could join hands to form a new government, said Pichai.

The worst case scenario is that there is no coalition government with at least 376 votes that can assure the approval of their prime ministerial candidate, which may finally lead to House dissolution and fresh general election, said Pichai. There is, however, a provision in the Constitution for the appointment of an outsider as prime minister, to put an end to a political impasse.

According to Section 121 of the Constitution, 15 days after the official announcement of the election results, the first joint meeting of the House and Senate must be held to elect the House Speaker, who will double as president of the parliament.

Then the process to appoint the prime minister will begin. Since the charter does not set a time limit for this and the formation of the new government, the process can drag on and the incumbent government will function until the new cabinet takes the oath and enters office.

If there is no problem with this process, a new government could assume office around August, said Pichai.

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/potential- ... ite%20camp.

[buksida]

Yep, as reported by HRW at the beginning of this thread, the whole fiasco has been rigged from the start (which is probably why the generals are still smiling.)

Thailand 2023:

[Ratsima]

Still, when asked about this (the Senate), Pita seems unconcerned and says he’s not worried. I still wonder, what’s the plan?

[HHTel]

If he could get the Bhumjaithai party (Anutin's party) to join the coalition then he's home and dry. That would negate any requirement from the Senate.

Just dreaming!!

[buksida]

Anutin is heavily allied with the generals and wants to control the top ministries (Health, Transport, Tourism etc) so its very unlikely to happen.

[Ratsima]

Anutin is heavily allied with the generals and wants to control the top ministries (Health, Transport, Tourism etc) so its very unlikely to happen.

Yep. I think there’s something else afoot but no idea what it might be.

[hhinner]

MF only need to recruit 34 senators. Only!

I think MF would rather not govern if the price is to have any pro-military party in the coalition. They have momentum and can maybe wait for another 4 years, by which time the current senate will be gone.

A party with actual principles is something new for this country.

[Nereus]

I think that MF is depending on Taksins daughter to be his ace. If the mob try to stop his plan of a coalition with her they will inflame a lot of opposition, and even an uprising.

[HHTel]

AFAIK the coalition have 309 seats. 376 are needed so 34 senators, although good, isn't enough.