Credit Crunch effect on Thailand

[redzonerocker]

Blame America Sarge! Some people do for everything and we don't mind... we have big shoulders.

it's all americas fault

[sargeant]

HH Quote me
"Firstly a quote from my dad the United Kingdom is the only American state that does not have a star on the flag or use dollars as its currency

That was accurate 25 years ago and still is so i dont blame only the states on the flag we are one of them and so are most other countrys."

see you tommorrow.

Could someone dig out a thread or remember its title where a couple of years ago a guy came on asking if he maxed out his 7 seven credit cards could he buy a Bar in Bintabhat i want to give it to SJ for a bit of light reading

[JD]

HH Quote me
"Firstly a quote from my dad the United Kingdom is the only American state that does not have a star on the flag or use dollars as its currency

That was accurate 25 years ago and still is so i dont blame only the states on the flag we are one of them and so are most other countrys."

I bit my lip the first time you said that and let it go, but....

I don't know why you feel compelled to repeat that quote, it's obviously ill advised. I pulled you up once before on what I believed to be ill advice from your father, which you quoted on the forum.

The UK is not, nor ever has been, a state of the USA, it is an Ally of the USA and as such follows many similar views. One of the largest exports the UK has is Financial Services and Banking, sure it's going to be hit hard. The USA Dollar is the worlds currency for international transactions, so by your reckoning every country that trades some of it's products using that currency has a hidden star in it's flag. As the UK is more akin to doing business with it's neighbors than America, I would say it's more likely to have a hidden Euro Symbol in it's currency.

A lot of comments on this thread do have a ring of the future in them. As you strayed off topic, I felt a need to answer your comments, especially as, in my view, the off topic part was wrong the first time, but you felt the need to repeat it.

The seven best words posted this year about any of the current worlds problems that are related to Hua Hin and Thailand are at the end of this quote.

I started this thread about how it is affecting the Thais and Thailand and how it affects them will effect us

So lets keep this thread on topic, it is a good one, but please respect others views and stop quoting senseless points of view as being accurate, because it's all a matter of opinion after all.

That said I'm off home from work to enjoy a cold cider or two. Imports are getting slightly cheaper don't you know.

The Thai currency is overvalued at the moment, when it starts to fall inline with the major currencies in the world things should stabalise here for a while. Yes the world is in recession, but the value of the baht is what is stopping exports, some tourists and the overall downturn in Thailand. With a strong Baht, it just ain't cheap to come here, or to manufacture products for export. That needs to be addressed, the average Thai would benefit from that a lot more than an increase in the average retired, expats, disposable income.

[T.I.G.R.]

Hi All -

Awake and like Sarge, no longer fired up....just tired of being on the wrong end of the stick. Every once in a while I have to kick my own ass and remember I wasn't born and haven't ever lived in Afghanistan/Pakistan/Turkyukistan or any other places where you might have to subsist on eating dirt.

I think there is one positive thing we could all say about whatever calculations we made before moving here. We were smart enough to live somewhere it doesn't get cold and you could grow your own food or fish for it if you had to. In my case we also calculated in a huge family to take care of me when I'm the one who needs it.

Buck up boys......in two or three years we'll be on the other side of the curve.

[sargeant]

JD i never said it was accurate now did I i said we did not have a star on the flag but that as all that was missing
The pound is falling against the dollar hence we are getting screwed not the dollar against the Bt
I think you will find that i said if Mr Abhasit devalues the Bt by 50% even i would vote for him
As for advice /my fathers views he has been dead a long time but his thoughts still ring true to me if not maybe you could answer why we the brits were so involved in the pack of lies that lead to us being in iraq please feel free to start a new thread as it is of topic
i still feel that what is going to happen to falangs in thailand and to the thai people will be decided by people none of us or certainly the majority of us never had the chance to vote for maybe you could enlighten me as to why i should stay quiet
As for the Bt going pear shaped i hope you are correct its the only hope i have left
Thanks TIGR 3 years if i survive i reckon you could be right at least i hope so

[redzonerocker]

can anyone explain why the decisions made by the uk government, or any other one for that matter, should take into consideration the plight of ex patriates suffering because of the poor exchange rates??
not a criticism, more an open question

most of the drastic economic decisions that have been made recently have been done to counteract & stop the flow of repossessions, bankruptcies & the housing market crash in the uk.
trying to stem the falling house prices & cutting interest rates to an all time low was bound to lead to the pound taking a battering, especially as it's up against much larger currencies with bigger economies, like the dollar & the euro.

poor exchange rates don't really affect most uk residents unless they are planning holidays, it does help small business with exports though.
i know the forecast isn't very bright, but the US & most of europe are heading down the same route as the uk.
things will change quite dramatically over the coming year i'm sure.

there has been a lot of finger pointing picked up on in this thread as to the culprits of this economic disaster.
well personally i point mine directly at the banks & financial institutions.
they been poorly managed, not only in the beginning, but also after they have been taking govt bailout money.
now they want more , but they still apply ridiculous charges for anything & everything they can.
they are still over cautious to lending even though that was the whole point of the bailout money. there are still good investments & businesses out there looking for the finance to keep going & move forward, but they are not getting any support from the banks.
the so called experts are no more than glorified gamblers, they should be held more accountable for their mistakes.


as for thailand, the worse is yet to come.
tourism is gonna be down for a while & exports are going to be slow or even at standstill.
thats gonna lead to high unemployment
as JD says, the baht is way overvalued, so how the thai govt deal with their economic situation is the key question.
if the baht nosedives v the pound, it will certainly favour expats.
will it benefit thais in general though?

[Wanderlust]

I have never been in favour of governments making direct interventions in the value of their currency (i.e. devaluation) as it is a short term measure that rarely works; the monetary system should be allowed to work freely to determine various currencies values based on the market's assessment of their related economies. Someone has got to have been interfering with the baht to keep it at the level it is at through the last year - normally the various political, economic and military situations Thailand has been through would have seen the currency fall through the floor. I thought the connection maintaining the baht/dollar rate had been cut long ago but it seems t me as if it has been re-established; either that or someone very rich is meddling in the money markets to keep the baht strong. Whichever it is, it does not do either the current government nor the Thai people any favours, and if it is the Bank of Thailand maintaing a strong baht they must be running low on foreign currency reserves I would have thought. The pound is weak because the economy in the UK is, but the drop against the baht has been astonishing; however I feel that it is pretty much rock bottom now and as others have said this year should see a change. Lets hope so for everyone.

[MrPlum]

"The overall problem is that the global banking system is insolvent and they refuse to put it into bankruptcy. What they are doing instead, is inflating the value of fraudulent assets. Here you have a bank that's bankrupt. The assets are worthless. Everybody agrees the assets are worthless. But they are going to try to keep them alive. What is that, but fraud?"

Larouche

So what does that mean for us? A continued slide in the most toxic currencies, and an effort to distract us with wars and Obama circuses?

Maybe the baht isn't being manipulated at all. Maybe it's just not got the same degree of toxic financial waste on its books and therefore it's a better place to park your money than more insolvent economies? Perhaps too, all the money that was invested by wealthy Thais abroad, in collapsing markets, is being repatriated.

I'm not pinning my hopes on the pound recovering any time soon. Jim Rogers has said get the hell out of the currency. That's bad news for those who receive their incomes from Blighty.

Governments should let all these institutions go bankrupt and just keep the performing bits to themselves. Printing more cash to meet all the still expansing obligations (as house prices continue to fall) is sending the world into hyper-inflation.

The only place to put your money in that scenario is Gold. Except that's manipulated by the crooks too. Wonder when they will start to confiscate Gold to stop the paper money system from collapsing?

It's criminal what these financial pirates have done. If I can see that giving mortgages to people who don't have jobs and don't have any income is madness, then so can they. Either it was simple commission-based greed or something more calculated took place.

It's said 'money is the root of all evil'. I believe it.

[JD]

JD i never said it was accurate now did I i said we did not have a star on the flag but that as all that was missing
Actually Sarg you did, you said

That was accurate 25 years ago and still is

The pound is falling against the dollar hence we are getting screwed not the dollar against the Bt
I think you will find that i said if Mr Abhasit devalues the Bt by 50% even i would vote for him
And I thought you were in love with Toxin. I don't agree with a planned devaluation, I said the Baht was overvalued.

As for advice /my fathers views he has been dead a long time but his thoughts still ring true to me if not maybe you could answer why we the brits were so involved in the pack of lies that lead to us being in iraq please feel free to start a new thread as it is of topic
Up to you to agree with daddy, that's your opinion, what Iraq has to do with this thread I don't know, but in answer to your question the reason the UK and many other countries (inc Thailand) got involved in the conflict was because they are allies.

i still feel that what is going to happen to falangs in thailand and to the thai people will be decided by people none of us or certainly the majority of us never had the chance to vote for maybe you could enlighten me as to why i should stay quiet
Who has asked you to stay quiet, try and tell me one person on this earth who has the vote in every nation's election. Every nation's government will be looking after the events and actions that best support their own country and it's people.

As for the Bt going pear shaped i hope you are correct its the only hope i have left
As I said, I think the Baht is overvalued, market forces, lack of exports and lack of investment will bring it down, unfortunately for the Thais, that will give rise to unemployment. I think Gordon Brown has taken a bold but correct step in the UK. Yes it's tight, but UK exports are cheap, that keeps people in work, he is not bailing out all and sundry, that and other factors, as I see it, put the UK at the forefront of being one of the first Nations to come out of this crisis.

Thanks TIGR 3 years if i survive i reckon you could be right at least i hope so

Sarg, you started this thread asking everyone to stay on topic. I've pulled you up because your the one straying off your own topic, making off topic statements I don't agree with.

You started a very good thread, as I stated previously, nobody is picking on you, stay on topic please.

[STEVE G]

Maybe the baht isn't being manipulated at all. Maybe it's just not got the same degree of toxic financial waste on its books and therefore it's a better place to park your money than more insolvent economies?

I think this is basically what is happening; actually at the moment Thai banks seem to be a safer place to put your money than many traditionally safe western ones.
Thailand is suffering because of reduced exports, but domestically it really isn’t in that bad a condition compared with the UK hence the strong exchange rate.

[norm]

Agree that the Thai banks look better than most as far as toxic debt goes.

Would consider moving more money into LOS but two problems with that.

One is lousy interest rate and high tax.

Second is repatriating the money when you want to move it out again. Have not done this but seems like it could be a bit of a hassel.

[sargeant]

JD wrist slap accepted point made However I am not in love with Mr T, his policies for the poor maybe but that is all

RZR I don’t expect the UK govt to change policy on my misfortune but I do criticize them for propping up the profligate irresponsible banks and financial institutions but not a mention of pension funds other than they are on their own sink or swim seems to be the policy.Therefore with possible/probable repercussions for the responsible people that saved and did not sniff it up their nose

WL “Someone has got to have been interfering with the baht to keep it at the level it is”
I agree the last financial minister in the PPP govt tried to get the Bank of Thailand to devalue the Bt by 5% and they refused.” someone very rich is meddling in the money markets to keep the baht strong.”I agree but Why I ask ?? or who ???

Mr P the Toxic paper point is a good one and probably a lot to do with it.
What I don’t understand is that in 1998 Thailand was bankrupt and went to the IMF for huge loans (that maybe is its saving grace now) Mr T paid the IMF every penny back 2/3 years EARLY in I think 2004/5 that is only 3 years ago and in that 3 years we have had nothing but coups and political turmoil throw in a Tsunami which Mr T did not take any loans or aid for and paid for the reconstruction etc with govt money thus lowering the Thai funds that leaves me with algebra I just cannot fathom for the life of me

What does all this mean for Thailand well as factories all over Asia are closing as orders stop when the upturn comes (just a question of when) the last factories to reopen will be in LOS because the Bt will be uncompetitive with all the other factories in countries with better rates

I just hope I can get back and spend the 25 grand I have lost and spend it in Thai businesses

[ozuncle]

I don't think anyone is artificially propping up the Baht.
It is what it is because of market forces. Exports, foreign investment etc.
There have been calls to artificially devalue the Bhat. How can this help?
I believe that tampering will only cause more problems in the long term.
All Asian currencies have remained fairly strong against the USD.
Mainly because their exports have been strong.
It is only very recently that China, Japan etc have started to hurt and this is only just starting to filter through to all the other exporting countries.
One example is Aus, which just in the last few months the mining companies are closing mines and slashing jobs.
In July, I was getting 32 Bhat and it is now about 22!
The Baht value will fall soon, but this won't help your average Thai.
Even the tourist industry won't improve much because of the value of the Baht. It's not easy to buy the airfare if you have not got a job and the bank is threatening to foreclose on your mortgage.
Unfortunately Thailand as well as most countries will suffer massive unemployment. Many businesses will close.
Most of us on this forum are of sufficient age and financial security to enable us to at least look after our partner and his/her family (for at least basic needs) and for that I am very grateful.

[Spitfire]

......they must be running low on foreign currency reserves I would have thought. The pound is weak because the economy in the UK is, but the drop against the baht has been astonishing......................

Think WL is right with the above, they're short of foreign currency, was reading the other day that the Thai Finance Ministry has told all banks to 'lock up' 30% of all foreign currency they acquire for a year. This is a bid to 'slam the brakes on' and curb speculation on the baht. Not sure how effective it will be.

The UK ecomony is in sh** creek, as we all know, but for us out here I think it's hard to understand just how far up said creek it really is, which is being shown in the exchange rate. OK, might be the case that we'll emerge quicker and in better shape but for now, well, it's a bit /

[sargeant]

Spitfire somebody help me out
I have been particularly concerned about exported manufactured goods and unemployment but
Quote spitfire "was reading the other day that the Thai Finance Ministry has told all banks to 'lock up' 30% of all foreign currency they acquire for a year."
Does that mean importers wont be able to get forex to pay for imports and therefore affect import jobs as well
If it does jeez we are in for a rough ride