lockwood74 wrote:I had a long conversation with a friend of mine who is a money trader in the city (london) today.
He said that the pound will continue to tkae a battering. Bad news as I have to exchange from pounds to Baht.
I think the real estate in Hua Hin is going to come crashing down as European money starts to freeze up.
John,
Did your friend give any reasons as to why either the pound would take a battering, and also why the baht is remaining strong? Economically speaking there is no logical reason for this to be taking place because in relative terms the UK is doing a lot better than most other countries and has not been affected too badly by the sub prime situation, Northern Rock aside. I suspect from a money traders viewpoint it is just profit taking, which will cease before long; I also think that the baht has been artificially supported for some time, and that will also come to an end. I predict the pound returning to nearer 70 than 60 within the next 3 months.
As far as the real estate goes i don't think the European money is really going to be a factor, but it certainly won't be racing ahead as before because the supply has now far outstripped demand, although there will always be certain types of property that will retain or increase their value whatever the economic situation. It is certainly going to be a flat 2 or 3 years though but hopefully the upside of that is getting rid of the 'undesirables' i.e. speculators and crooks.
You should be from America.....we've lost 25% of our purchasing power since January of '06.
Not only that, but thanks to the wonderful world of G.W. Bush we've had a home sitting on the market for two years, and no relief in sight.
Three years ago the baht was 44-1............before you know it we'll be below 30-1.
Thanks a lot George!!
Arn't you being a little hard on Mr Bush? Sure he's been complicit in the murderous deaths of thousands of Americans and other foreigners in the 9/11 tragedy, lied over 300 times to start a war with Iraq, lied further to start a war with Afghanistan, eroded American civil rights, trashed the US constituation, stopped global environmental agreements and ruined the US economy, but hey! his pal John McCain has promised to continue with all his good work and the American people are cheering him on so all is not lost!
Fortunately I think there are enough fed up Democrats this time to get the Republicans out of office before the whole country goes in the crapper......I just hope they're smart enough to vote for the man instead of the beast.
This has caused the TT rate to drop to 61.99 from 63.21 first thing this morning. More bad news for pound/dollar transfers to LOS!
(BangkokPost.com) - Central bank on Friday decided to remove the 30% reserve requirement on short-term capital inflows imposed by the previous government.
Central bank governor Tarisa Watanagase said that the lift will be effective from Monday.
"The central bank decided to lift the capital controls because of the improving economic situation," she said.
The controls were imposed during the Surayud Chulanont administration in an attempt to control the appreciation of the baht against the dollar.
The controls required 30% of all incoming investments to be held by financial institutions for up to one year.
JG,
I only see the lifting of the capital controls as a good thing for those of us having to change pounds (or dollars) into baht - as I see it, those who have been buying baht will now decide to cash in, thus weakening the baht against other currencies; it is currently artificially high, much like the dollar was previously. Currency speculation is notoriously difficult though, but I really can't see the government here wanting the baht to stay as strong as this because of exports.
Wanderlust wrote:JG,
I only see the lifting of the capital controls as a good thing for those of us having to change pounds (or dollars) into baht - as I see it, those who have been buying baht will now decide to cash in, thus weakening the baht against other currencies; it is currently artificially high, much like the dollar was previously. Currency speculation is notoriously difficult though, but I really can't see the government here wanting the baht to stay as strong as this because of exports.
I do hope your right Wanderlust. I don't know one way or the other. If I did I would have done a big exchange in late November when I got 69.5.
I'd wait and see, caller. You've still got over 3 weeks till you arrive and the lifting of capital controls on Monday will probably make a difference.
I'd agree with WL that the strong Baht must be hitting exports here and that's not what the government will want. Hopefully, the Baht will weaken over the next few weeks.
caller wrote:What's the advice then guy's - bring cash?
We can pay it into the wifes account on arrival for security.
Or just use the ATM based on UK accounts?
26 days to departure - phew!
Cash is not so good an exchange rate. The TT rate is the best but you lose a bit for the fee. All depends on the amount you are wanting to exchange. Nationwide card is still the best for holiday money. But for large amounts at the moment we are f****D
I was sort of planning on it being 67 to the pound, not that it makes much difference, as my planning doesn't account for the fact I always spend what I can't really afford in any case!
Just as well my wife didn't marry me for my money!
Sometimes its very difficult to understand the logic behind some posts on this forum.
Caller.with respect it makes no difference if you bring cash, t/cheques or transfer from your u.k bank direct to your Thai b/account.
Wanderlust if you think the baht will weaken in the short term you are wrong. The baht is not overvalued. In the last 16 months the thais have enjoyed a trading surplus in all but one month. The baht has only appreciated along with other currencies in the region. thai exporters are selling u.s dollars, and who can blame them.
The baht will weaken but not for another year. it takes that long for exchange rates to have an effect on import/ export figures. most big importers in any country forward buy foreign exchange at least a year in advance.the bank of Thailand expect the baht to strengthen before weakening towards the end of the year.
You think northern rock didn’t affect you.?? think again. Its dented confidence in the u.k financial sector and those problems will carry on for quite some time.
its not that the baht is stong, the u.s. dollar and u.k. pound are weak. the dollar has many more problems than the pound and its difficult to see a short term fix. remember the baht is stable with the aus dollar and the eur.
turning to house prices. if any of you think that this will not cause problems in the ex pat housing market then think again. baht 54/uk pound soon. 10 million baht house costs increaes from 150,000 uk pounds to 185000 ukpound taking exchange rate 68/pound.
you pay an extra 35,000 uk pounds for your house plus all the incresed living costs at 54/baht uk pound. if the rate holds for long many ex pats will leave further depressing the housing market.
we all are here for different reasons but i,m sure the common factor is its cheap to live. if thats taken away whats the point in staying.???
mike
We are all amateurs, least I think so, there could be some experts amongst us and if so I apologise. All we can do is make educated guesses, probably with a bearing on how it will affect us; I know that’s what I am doing.
If we knew the answer for definite we would not be posting it on a web forum, we would be making our fortunes. I'm sure George Soros will know the answer, but seems to be keeping quiet at the moment.
miked wrote:turning to house prices. if any of you think that this will not cause problems in the ex pat housing market then think again. baht 54/uk pound soon. 10 million baht house costs increaes from 150,000 uk pounds to 185000 ukpound taking exchange rate 68/pound.
you pay an extra 35,000 uk pounds for your house plus all the incresed living costs at 54/baht uk pound. if the rate holds for long many ex pats will leave further depressing the housing market.
we all are here for different reasons but i,m sure the common factor is its cheap to live. if thats taken away whats the point in staying.???
mike
A lot of good sensible comments here. But why is it that that the housing market is only going to be affected by the GBP exchange rate?
From what I know of the market in Hua Hin, and most definitely on the estate where I am, a lot of property has been bought with Euros, or at least Scandinadian finance. The Euro continues to gain against the dollar, and, as stated, is stable against the Baht. The direction of the market may change, but I cannot see that it has to rely on the GBP exchange rate.
May you be in heaven half an hour before the devil know`s you`re dead!
