exchange rates low!

[miked]

i'm far from an expert, most of my money was with norther rock. i do think this problem with the pound is short term, but could take a year to sought out. not so the u.s dollar.
the last thing i wat to do is to return to England, or poland as its know called.
my wife (thai) have decided to put off building our housr for a year. i think this time next year we at least will see the light at the end of the tunnel.
mike

[miked]

Nereus,
very good point and something being english i did not even consider.
however the euro is very over valued and is tipped for a long dcline. just taking u.k. pounds out of the property market will have a bit affect though.
i think that this is a short term prolem and i for one intend to sit tight. this is bsaically a u.s problem, caused by greed and cheap money. the problem will not be solved by reducing interest rates.
mike

[ozuncle]

Agree with miked with everything except the property market in Thailand(not just HH). As stated by Nerius, it is mainly USD that is very weak.

The lifting of the 30% capital control thing should make little difference.
It is the USD which is in free fall,and dragging a few other currencies with it.
The AUD is at a 24 year high against the US dollar which is because of our high interest rates. without those rate increases we too would be complaing of our exchange rate with the Baht.

Back in November 2006 in answer to a question by Sargeant, one of our respected forum members strongly suggested that the USD was undervalued and that we should buy US dollars. At that time the rate was 36.6 Bhat to US$1.

The moral is that no one knows what is going to happen tomorrow.
But, I think the Baht will stay strong for at least the next 6 months.

[caller]

Well I'm a simple soul and my thoughts for my holiday money were this:

Just use the ATM from my UK account and pay for each transaction.

Transfer a sum to the wife's LOS account from the UK, which will cost 20 GBP and she get's free withdrawals - well she pay's 200b per year for the privilege.

Bring cash on the previously accepted understanding, you got a better exchange rate.

Open my own account with the cash.

That's it!

[Wanderlust]

In the last 16 months the thais have enjoyed a trading surplus in all but one month. The baht has only appreciated along with other currencies in the region. thai exporters are selling u.s dollars, and who can blame them.
The baht will weaken but not for another year. it takes that long for exchange rates to have an effect on import/ export figures. most big importers in any country forward buy foreign exchange at least a year in advance.the bank of Thailand expect the baht to strengthen before weakening towards the end of the year.

mike,
I wouldn't trust the stats coming out from the Thai government any more than i would a bar girl in Soi Bintabaht! And that is doing a disservice to the bar girl...
The baht is at the beck and call of the currency speculators who have an immediate impact on the exchange rates, and governments are some of the biggest speculators. There has been a huge trade in the baht since the onshore/offshore rates were introduced as it was easy money for those in command and anyone else in a position to speculate. This will now come to an end and these people will be selling baht like crazy as from Monday - you watch the baht tumble next week. The political instability alone would normally send a currency down but this didn't really happen after the protests against Thaksin and the following coup, and the only answer to that is that someone was supporting the baht - probably the Thaksin government before the coup, and the army/central bank after it. They very likely had large reserves of US dollars they wanted to get rid of anyway, given the poor outlook for the dollar then. There is currently rampant inflation in Thailand, and the current government are not even seeing the problems this country faces, and are relying on the return of the robber baron Thaksin to cure all the problems, and it would not surprise me at all if he turns tail and runs back to the UK within the next couple of months, when he sees what a mess he left the country in. The baht will fall and fall soon - you read it here first folks!

[huahinsimon]

Nereus,
this is bsaically a u.s problem, caused by greed and cheap money. the problem will not be solved by reducing interest rates.
mike

Yup. like all the problems in the world today, its those greedy americans fault. couldnt possibly be any greeders in the Uk could there!

a friend who recently returned to UK just sent me an email today which said, When I left the Uk you could borrow 3.5 times your income for a mortgage, now its 6 or 7 with no proof of income!! and 125% mortgages offered.

I wager you puffed up Brits that it wont be long before we are hearing of a UK property and mortgage crisis. Think the falling pound is saying something??? Listen up.

But I have no advise.

HHS

[dtaai-maai]

Nereus,
this is bsaically a u.s problem, caused by greed and cheap money. the problem will not be solved by reducing interest rates.
mike

Yup. like all the problems in the world today, its those greedy americans fault. couldnt possibly be any greeders in the Uk could there!

a friend who recently returned to UK just sent me an email today which said, When I left the Uk you could borrow 3.5 times your income for a mortgage, now its 6 or 7 with no proof of income!! and 125% mortgages offered.

I wager you puffed up Brits that it wont be long before we are hearing of a UK property and mortgage crisis. Think the falling pound is saying something??? Listen up.

But I have no advise.

HHS

HHS - puffed up Brits? Is that an all-inclusive term? Like stupid arseholes?

[richard]

HHS

You seem to have it in for the Brits

Greeders? Try Africa, Russia, Asia, Japan, Europe, Australasia to name but a few

Get the yank chip off your shoulder

We ALL love you really (apart from the redknecks)

I hope for some face to face banter soon. You know where to find me!!!!

YOBT for a Sunday roast job tomorrow at about 2pm

[ozuncle]

I wrote:
[quote But, I think the Baht will stay strong for at least the next 6 months.

]

Wanderlust wrote:

The baht will fall and fall soon - you read it here first folks!

[huahinsimon]

dtaai-maai wrote

HHS puffed up Brits? Is that an all-inclusive term? Like stupid arseholes"

Nope, by no means all inclusive. "you puffed up Brits" referring to those who on this forum who propagandize that all or most of the world's problems originate in Yankeeland.

No chip, Richard of Leeds, you know that. Just get exasperated at the all to frequent, "it's America's fault," found on this forum.

As a matter of fact, several weeks ago I blasted the greed of the American bankers in the subprime debacle on this forum and also blasted the foreign bankers and institutions who bought those packages of falsely labeled securitized mortgage debt without checking under the hood to see what exactly was there. No Rolls Royce engine, just an old squirrel cage with a few tired rodents.

If bankers around the world had rejected these instruments we wouldnt be in this mess. But the international bankers liked the high interest they promised. Whats that old saying.? "there's no free lunch." Sucked in by greed, if its too good to be true, it probably isnt true- and it wasn't.
These bankers are supposed to be experts. X= an unknow quantity. Spurt= a drip under pressure I guess they are xspurts.

I have always said, plenty of blame to go round.

HHS

[Farang]

HHS

You seem to have it in for the Brits

Greeders? Try Africa, Russia, Asia, Japan, Europe, Australasia to name but a few

Get the yank chip off your shoulder

We ALL love you really (apart from the redknecks)

I hope for some face to face banter soon. You know where to find me!!!!

YOBT for a Sunday roast job tomorrow at about 2pm

Foodfight! Foodfight! Between chip-shoulder Yank and puffed-up Brit!

[STEVE G]

On top of the low exchange rate, inflation is rising as well:http://bangkokpost.com/topstories/topst ... ?id=126278

[ozuncle]

Excuse me please Mr Wanderlust but I can't help recalling your statement:

"This will now come to an end and these people will be selling baht like crazy as from Monday - you watch the baht tumble next week. The political instability alone would normally send a currency down but this didn't really happen after the protests against Thaksin and the following coup, and the only answer to that is that someone was supporting the baht - probably the Thaksin government before the coup, and the army/central bank after it. They very likely had large reserves of US dollars they wanted to get rid of anyway, given the poor outlook for the dollar then. There is currently rampant inflation in Thailand, and the current government are not even seeing the problems this country faces, and are relying on the return of the robber baron Thaksin to cure all the problems, and it would not surprise me at all if he turns tail and runs back to the UK within the next couple of months, when he sees what a mess he left the country in. The baht will fall and fall soon - you read it here first folks! "

For you info here is the result of some currencies since then.

USD Baht up by .55%
GBP Baht up by .7%
EUR Baht down by 1.9%
AUD Baht up by 4.14%
SEK Baht down by 1.73%
CAD Baht up by 4.44%

I presume you were only referring to the Baht falling against the EUR and the SEK !
right?

[Chas]

Just to tag onto this thread with a currency question. I am going to need Euros rather soon. I have the choice of geting them with Baht or with US dollars, the latter most likely.

Question: Can one buy Euros with US dollars at a bank here in Thailand?
How about using a US credit/debit card at a foreign exchange place?
I want to try to avoid going from Us dollars to baht to Euros. . .cant imagine how much I would lose on that kind of deal.

[Wanderlust]

Excuse me please Mr Wanderlust but I can't help recalling your statement:

"This will now come to an end and these people will be selling baht like crazy as from Monday - you watch the baht tumble next week. The political instability alone would normally send a currency down but this didn't really happen after the protests against Thaksin and the following coup, and the only answer to that is that someone was supporting the baht - probably the Thaksin government before the coup, and the army/central bank after it. They very likely had large reserves of US dollars they wanted to get rid of anyway, given the poor outlook for the dollar then. There is currently rampant inflation in Thailand, and the current government are not even seeing the problems this country faces, and are relying on the return of the robber baron Thaksin to cure all the problems, and it would not surprise me at all if he turns tail and runs back to the UK within the next couple of months, when he sees what a mess he left the country in. The baht will fall and fall soon - you read it here first folks! "

For you info here is the result of some currencies since then.

USD Baht up by .55%
GBP Baht up by .7%
EUR Baht down by 1.9%
AUD Baht up by 4.14%
SEK Baht down by 1.73%
CAD Baht up by 4.44%

I presume you were only referring to the Baht falling against the EUR and the SEK !
right?

ozuncle,
well of course I was clever enough not to specify against which currency! However, where are you drawing your figures from? I did an ATM withdrawal on 3rd March on which I got an exchange rate of 61.779 baht to ?1, and I did another one on 17th March where I got 62.023, so the rate improved by 0.39% for me over that time. And those rates are with the relatively poor Barclays ones. I have also looked at the exchange booths in Hua Hin as I go past and the rates are edging upwards from the lows of a couple of weeks ago for the pound. I believe in a couple of months time we will be looking at closer to 65 baht to the pound than 60, although other currencies I would not be so sure of. Any idea why the Aussie dollar is being hit so hard?