This could help those of us who are here on a fixed foreign currency income...
Suchart: Baht devaluation can help exports
source: Bangkok Post Oct 20 2008
Finance Minister Suchart Thadathamrongvej said he would like the baht currency to depreciate by five per cent to help stimulate the export sector and shoulder the economy in 2009.
The economic growth for next year should stay at four percent or lower while the export growth would be no more than 10 percent due to the global economic crisis, he said.
The minister said he will discuss the devaluation of Thai baht with Deputy Prime Minister Olarn Chaipravat, who is in charge of overseeing the national economy.
The baht on Monday was little changed at around 34.4 per US dollar.
As an expat that works here and draws money from the UK/ATM, I hope the baht goes down the toilet compared to the pound and the dollar and we all enjoy a disturdingly good exchange rate.
Might be fantasy land here, but it's OK to dream. I remember the days of 74 baht in a pound(only a couple of years ago), bring back that.
It sounds like they want to peg it somewhere around 36 baht to the U.S. dollar to help exports and the financial markets. It was 44 when I arrived on these shores a few years ago but that came after the Asian economy crash when I think it got to about 54 to the dollar before it turned around.
Every time visited in the '80s and '90s before the crash it was always around 25 to the dollar! I'd be happy now with 36!
I can remember when it was over 90 to the GBP for a few days, but 87 or so was more realistic. That was in 1998.
Happy days, but economically it leads to inflation so what you gain with one one hand, you lose with the other. Once prices have gone up, they rarely come back down again.
I'd reckon that 60 to the GBP is about right. Don't ask me why, but it just seems about right to me. My budget for this financial year is calculated on 55. Hopefully, I'll be wrong
We don't want the exchange rate to go so far in our favor that it destroys the local economy. I like the thinking in the article I posted at the beginning of the thread.... dollar pegged at 36... not nearly as high as it has been, nor as low, but hopefully a range that is realistic... and if that happens I'm sure the other currencies (pound, euro) would settle at a moderate level as well.
hhfarang wrote:It sounds like they want to peg it somewhere around 36 baht to the U.S. dollar to help exports and the financial markets. It was 44 when I arrived on these shores a few years ago but that came after the Asian economy crash when I think it got to about 54 to the dollar before it turned around.
Every time visited in the '80s and '90s before the crash it was always around 25 to the dollar! I'd be happy now with 36!
Yes, I went through several of those years here when it was at 25, although prices of most items was much lower than now. I was also here way back when, when it was 20 to the dollar but then a large Singha was 15 baht, house rent was $45.00 per month, the largest bank note was 100 Baht, and the 1 baht coin was the size of the old 1 pound coin. Pete
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i don't think they will, at least not yet. perhaps in about 9 months when the full impact of the slowdown hits thailand they will have a re -think. a strong baht is good for reducing inflation because it lowers the price of imported goods.
the government here seem to be in denial abouts whats happening in the outside world, thinking thailand will not suffer. yes thailand will suffer. they are still forecasting a 10% export growth.!!! its not going to happen.
miked
miked wrote:i don't think they will, at least not yet. perhaps in about 9 months when the full impact of the slowdown hits thailand they will have a re -think. a strong baht is good for reducing inflation because it lowers the price of imported goods.
the government here seem to be in denial abouts whats happening in the outside world, thinking thailand will not suffer. yes thailand will suffer. they are still forecasting a 10% export growth.!!! its not going to happen.
miked
Spot on again. Wait until this export led economy becomes too expensive and all the buyers go elsewhere. I'm sure it's happening right now.
This dosn't happen overnight and the wheels are probably in motion already from the buyers of rice, coconuts, prawns and nic nacs.
And there's tourism.
Next year will see whether the the Baht is strong enough.
