"The smell of a coup is in the air"

[lockwood74]

This is becoming a more common topic in the news headlines in recent weeks

Latest news....................10th May "The star online" reads........

With severe conflict, lack of unity and lack of loyalty to the monarchy, Thailand may once again reach a point where army intervention becomes inevitable.

THE gut feeling of a Thai journalist who covers the military beat is that a coup is in the offing.

“You might think it is nonsense. But I can smell a coup,” says Wassana Nanuam, a Bangkok Post journalist who recently published a Thai-language book on the 2006 coup called Lab Luang Prang (Secrets, Deceptions and Disguise).

“When you cover closely the key men (who are essential to stage a coup), you can see in their eyes, words and behaviour that they are thinking seriously of staging a coup,” explains the 39-year-old author in an interview on Tuesday at the army headquarters in Bangkok.

Coincidentally, that morning, Thai Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej visited the army headquarters, giving rise to speculation that his visit had something to do with a coup.

Certain quarters speculate that the recent military drills conducted at night in Bangkok had spooked Samak into thinking that the Thai Royal Army was preparing to bring down his three-month-old government.

The next day, government spokesman Vichienchote Sukchotirat told reporters: “The rumours came from those who oppose the government. We have just worked for three months, and rumours about this keep flooding in. But the truth is that no coup will be staged.”

In past Thai coups (18 since 1932, the year Thailand changed from an absolute monarchy to a constitutional monarchy), Wassana notes, the army chief and the commander of the First Army Region played crucial roles.

“The army chief because he is the commander-in-chief, and the commander of the First Army Region because he controls troops based in Bangkok,” explains the journalist who also authored a book on the 1991 coup.

“The First Army Region is called the coup unit as it has (soldiers and tanks to take over the Thai capital).”

In her latest book, the then army chief Gen Sonthi Boonyaratkalin revealed that only he and Gen Anupong Paojinda, then commander of the First Army Region and now army chief, plotted the coup which ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra on Sept 19, 2006.

The current First Army Region chief is Lt-Gen Prayuth Janocha, who was among key officers behind the bloodless 2006 coup. On Wednesday, Prayuth insisted that it was improper for government critics to call for a coup to end the country’s political crises.

However, he warned that with severe conflict, lack of unity and lack of loyalty to the monarchy, Thailand might once again reach a point where a coup was inevitable.

“If it’s going to happen, it will happen. It depends on events at the time. What has to be considered is how to prevent it from happening,” he was quoted as saying in The Nation.

Wassana, who covered Prayuth’s press conference, believes the commander is serious in stating that it is the military’s duty to protect the monarchy’s honour (especially against moves that were in contempt of the royal family).

She adds that Anupong and Prayuth have a close brotherly relationship, are of one mind and are loyal to the royal family.

“Many people think that Anupong is loyal to Samak. But there are those who think that he is doing what Sonthi did to Thaksin,” she reveals.

Despite warnings of a coup, the then prime minister did not believe that his army commander would betray him. Thaksin assumed Sonthi owed a debt of gratitude to him for his army chief appointment.

“It was Sonthi’s military tactic to pretend that he was loyal to Thaksin,” explains the author. Thus, Secrets, Deceptions and Disguise.

On her belief the military may launch a coup, Wassana lists several reasons: Thaksin may intervene in the military reshuffle in September, Samak plans to amend the military-drafted constitution, and moves by certain groups to drag the monarchy into politics.

The pretext for the next coup will be different from that in 2006. The Sept 19 coup, according to Sonthi, was necessary to prevent violent clashes between supporters and opponents of Thaksin.

“This time a situation will be created to increase tension between pro- and anti-Thaksin forces,” Wassana predicts.

“The military will not intervene when the mobs clash violently, but will use the bloodshed as a pretext to launch a coup.”

Her gut feeling tells her a coup may happen around July or August.

[lockwood74]

Jakrapob to ban PRD staff talking of coup
Minister tightens the screws on state news

PM's Office Minister Jakrapob Penkair said he will ban Public Relations Department (PRD) staff from reporting any news stories supporting a coup. ''Staff of the state media who encourage a coup either directly or indirectly would be regarded as committing a disciplinary offence,'' he said yesterday.

He said the new regulations regarding the issue would be implemented soon.

The new policy is anticipated to trigger criticism and debate among the public.

''Let people debate. I want to know as well who would say the media may support a coup. I want to see who such people are,'' said Mr Jakrapob.

He said the state media must not play a role in dividing the public.

His order does not apply to newspapers, magazines and community radio. But he called on reporters at private companies to use careful judgement before reporting anything.

''It is the duty of society to watch them [the private media], not of the government,'' he said.

He also said media control is his responsibility, and insisted he does not want to have problems with the media beyond his role.

Mr Jakrapob also said he would push the National Broadcasting Service of Thailand, or NBT, channel, operated by the PRD, to be a rival of the Thai Public Broadcasting Services (TPBS).

He said TPBS, which was transformed from iTV by the previous coup-installed government, is the product of a dictatorship and was wrongly conceived and implemented.

''But I would not do anything to jeopardise it [TPBS]. I will create the NBT to compete with it. I will tell society that NBT, which is a state-run organisation under a democratic government, is able to produce TV programmes useful and relevant to the public's interest,'' Mr Jakrapob recently said at the Foreign Correspondents Club of Thailand.

Mr Jakrapob, who is accused by the opposition Democrat party of abusing his power by supervising the NBT and has been taken to task for his handling of state media, conceded he had tried to oversee the TPBS but its regulations did not allow him to do so.

He said the budget of about two billion baht from sin taxes to be annually spent on TPBS was much more than the 302 million baht for the NBT.

The NBT Channel, which was changed from Channel 11 on April 1, has undergone changes to live up to the people's expectations, he said.

Senator Somchai Sawangkarn, the former chairman of the Broadcast Journalists Association, said for TV audiences the two stations had performed well in their reporting since the changes.

Mr Somchai said they screened diverse programmes focusing on family, entertainment, children, news and tourism.

''I don't want Minister Jakrapob to think about fierce competition with TPBS. Instead, he should give his backing to it and make many more TV channels in the country be public broadcasting services in the future,'' he said.

[lockwood74]

Latest news....

Poll: Over half of Thais fear another coup in half a year


BANGKOK, May 11 (Xinhua) -- More than 50 percent of respondents in a latest public opinion poll in Thailand fear that there will be another military coup within the next six months, according to a report released on Sunday.

According to the leading Abac Poll by Assumption University released on Sunday, 55.6 percent of the 3,404 people surveyed believe the military might launch another coup during the next six months to oust the current coalition government led by Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej, and 54.6 percent fear some unexpected, violent event to occur.

"Only" 53.6 percent of respondents, surveyed from May 6-10, expect the People Power Party leader Samak, who became Thai Prime Minister in early February to lead a six-party coalition government, to stay at the post, a Bangkok Post website quoted the pollster as reporting.

The last military coup the Thai people have witnessed was on Sept. 19, 2006, when the military top brass, led by the then army chief Sonthi Boonyaratkalin, toppled the then Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra when he was out of the country.

Government officials and military leaders have recently repeatedly dismissed "rumors" about an imminent military coup in the country. The Thai government said it was only attempts by political rivals to enkindle social conflicts.

Prime Minister's Office Minister Jakrapob Penkair on Saturday warned state broadcast media, especially those under the control of the Public Relations Department, which the minister supervised, against reporting support for a coup either directly or indirectly, or they would face disciplinary punishment.

[malcolminthemiddle]

With a coup on average every 4.22 years, rumours of a coup is not news, it is the status quo.

[caller]

What can be achieved by worrying or discussing such rumours?

You are powerless to intervene. It will either happen or it won't.

I doubt you'll get formal, advance notice.

[johnnyk]

What can be achieved by worrying or discussing such rumours?

You are powerless to intervene. It will either happen or it won't.

I doubt you'll get formal, advance notice.

Got to maintain the anxiety level, caller.
Anxiety is now the western norm and some are so hooked on it they can't cope when they come here.

[caller]

Kidding aside, I think thats a relevant point.

I have friends in the UK who don't read papers anymore, just waiting for their retirement to arrive so they can leave and relax. Maybe you need more of that type of insurgent!

[buksida]

The last thing this country needs is another coup but I reckon its inevitable - someone needs to get rid of that buffoon Samak though I'm not convinced a load of corrupt generals are the answer either.

With a coup on average every 4.22 years, rumours of a coup is not news, it is the status quo.

Absolutely, more info here for anyone interested:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of ... itary_rule

[sandman67]

If there is a coup here in Thailand it tends to be pretty bloodless from what I gather....last time there were street parties in BKK..... so we aren't talking S America here....no death squads disappearing people, no mass roundups and deportations of foreigners, etc.....and personally Id rather have the military in control rather than the bunch of jimps that are supposed to be doing the job now.

Samak is a fine representative of his party....myopic, corrupt, self serving and bigoted to the core. For god's sake this idiot single handedly caused a run on two Thai banks last week...ie damaged the national economy. Anywhere else in the world he would be impeached....here he stands up in Parliament and blatantly lies about what he said....and gets away with it.

The county is run by a satchel mouthed idiot who listens to his astrologer more than his political advisers, and who spends two hours a week on broadcast media spreading lies and slander about anyone who has the gall to challenge him.....insanity.

In the face of domestic problems and issues that need urgent attention this government have done nothing...they are too busy trying to force through self serving legislative changes that allow them to stick their money grubbing greedy snouts even deeper, and which compromise democratic and anti-corruption processes.

The final, and most sickening, indictment of Samak and his PPP buddies is the awful sight of Thailand's prime minister sucking up to a brutal military regime in Burma, and disparaging the democratically elected representative, Mrs Suu Kyi, who is under house arrest in her own country and denied access to her family.

Three months of cronyism, nepotism and selfish mismanagement of Thailand is enough!

Gentlemen....dust off the rifles and warm up the tanks....time to clean the house again.

[lockwood74]

Thai army chief downplays growing coup rumours
BANGKOK, May 12 (TNA) – Thai Army Commander-in-Chief Gen. Anupong Paochinda on Monday brushed aside mounting rumours about a possible military coup, saying it would not definitely occur.

Gen. Anupong said he did not worry about the rumour and wanted to reaffirm that there would not be a coup.

The army chief refused to comment on an instruction by Prime Minister's Office Minister Jakrapob Penkair to prohibit state media from presenting news about a possible military coup.

Also, Gen. Anupong said the army is prepared to send teams of medical personnel and technical specialists to help relieve the hardship of Cyclone Nargis victims in Myanmar.

However, he said that any disposition of Thai military forces would depend on the government and the Royal Thai Armed Forces want the army to do in any humanitarian rescue and assistance operation.

He said Thailand's assistant to the chief of staff for news and information would visit Myanmar to inspect the army attache's office there and discuss in detail how the Thai army might help the cyclone victims.

"The coordinated effort to help the victims should be made under the framework laid by the government," Gen. Anupong said. "The military will be involved in the field rescue operations." (TNA)-E005

[nevets]

I think your right Sandman , and also this country is not ready for democracy run by the people they do not know how to run a country. At leased there would be moor transparency with the military.

[kendo]

If me and the wife were in HH and a coup started to unfold,i would say "c'mon love not our business" and pop down that fishing lodge,ice cold beer in one hand fishing rod in the other and a promise to the wife that i am going to catch her a very very big bplaa that she can bbq, i think we soon would forget about the coup if its going to happen then hayho .

[STEVE G]

There is really no point having another coup at the present time, it would just lead to another year of economic stagnation and a reduction in international investment, eventually followed by another election with the same result as the last one.
The whole thing would be a complete waste of time.
If the present government is not up to the job of ruling the country, the correct thing to do is to form a political party capable of doing so and winning an election on that basis.
The last coup was bloodless but having witnessed a more messy affair in Indonesia ten years ago I wouldn’t speak so lightly of the practice.

[nevets]

The people of Thailand got what the mafia sorry politicians paid for , they didnt care if they would form a good goverment , they got there 100/500 bhat and that is it.

[kendo]

There is really no point having another coup at the present time, it would just lead to another year of economic stagnation and a reduction in international investment, eventually followed by another election with the same result as the last one.
The whole thing would be a complete waste of time.
If the present government is not up to the job of ruling the country, the correct thing to do is to form a political party capable of doing so and winning an election on that basis.
The last coup was bloodless but having witnessed a more messy affair in Indonesia ten years ago I wouldn’t speak so lightly of the practice.

Steve G with respect, it really is not our business, even my Thai wife reconds "ken not your or any other farangs business" we all Know the score with Thailand a developing country its all about levels of exceptability i.e far better than Burma and a lot of other countrys.I feel i am a guest in LOS and it is not our place to really have an opinion on internal affairs, i think if people dont like it they can vote with there feet, a lot of people are very self opinionated about LOS, thats fine to have your own opinion but dont forget you also have another option.When you talk about economic stagnation, the price of rice many peoples staple diet through out the world has doubled the poor people are really in the shit,and thats without politics or natral desaster,even here in the U.K everyone is feeling the pinch with everything rocketing in price
there is major discontentment here in the U.K and the government is getting dicked at the local electcions,we cant make judgements on LOS we are just guests