political unrest

Post by **whittler** » Fri Sep 12, 2008 2:17 am

I would like to ask, what effect does the political unrest have on you
as an expat, or on a tourist ? I am more interested in areas like
Pattaya, Hua Hin, Rayong.

whittler

Post by **lomuamart** » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:00 am

None whatsoever, unless you count the hours my wife sits in front of the telly watching that wretched PAD rally. It's on 24 hours a day and has been for months. It's sending me round the bend and driving me to drink - not that I've ever needed much encouragement on that front

I was up in BKK overnight on the day The State of Emergency was declared. Didn't see any trouble at all. It's localised and you won't get involved, unless you go looking for trouble.

Post by **ste860** » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:20 am

it has no effect unless your in the condo or hotel buisiness,i have frinds who are based in pattaya,they have had a few cancellations ,

Post by **buksida** » Fri Sep 12, 2008 8:37 am

As stated it has no effect on tourists at all, it will only effect you if you're doing business which relies on tourism (which most here do). If you're on holiday or retired its all just another day in paradise.

Additionally each new government that comes in is likely to want to prove itself to the population and the first target is usually those horrible aliens so those working have come to expect another wave of restrictions.

Post by **hhfarang** » Fri Sep 12, 2008 9:05 am

What political unrest?

Post by **Winkie** » Fri Sep 12, 2008 9:28 am

Not wanting to put a downer on things, generally the statements above are correct, but....

Don't forget that 3 Airports have been closed (for several days), and almost all long distance train travel was stopped for some days (probably more than 1 week I think, but please correct me). THeir was even 1 day when major roads south and norht of Bangkok where blocked.

There is always the possibility that these situations could return.

So, in fairness, to potentional tourists, there is always a small possibility that the political activities could hamper the enjoyment of people vacationing here. I live in Thailand, and was due to meet some friends for a short break in Phuket, they made it, as they had been there a few days ahead of Airport closures. Myself and my family couldn't travel as the Airport was closed. So I can speak with experience as a tourist whose holiday WAS cancelled completely due to the political protests. Didn't bother me so much, but......

Post by **lomuamart** » Fri Sep 12, 2008 9:53 am

Good points, Winkie.

Terry · Post by **Terry** » Fri Sep 12, 2008 10:12 am

Home is in Hua Hin - commute up to Bangkok on a Monday and return on a Friday for the weekend.

Last week I flew to Singapore on business for a couple of days and did a visa run whilst at it.

NO effect whatsoever - maybe I've been lucky with the travelling bit.

Bangkok is still the same noisey, smelly, dirty place.

If you want to go looking for trouble - you will find it

Same as anywhere I guess.

sargeant · Post by **sargeant** » Fri Sep 12, 2008 11:06 am

I personally think the credit crunch will have more to do with a downturn of tourists than the trouble in BKK . However the trouble makes it easier to say we will go to morecombe this year and save a few bob

Post by **Guess** » Fri Sep 12, 2008 4:32 pm

sargeant wrote:I personally think the credit crunch will have more to do with a downturn of tourists than the trouble in BKK . However the trouble makes it easier to say we will go to morecombe this year and save a few bob

I'm not sure about that. Tourism has been down for the last two seasons. Foreign agencies have been warning people that Thailand could be risky. The waring levels have gone up apparently since the violent protests started. Funny they don't warn you about trips to London.

The Pound/Baht rate has been hovering between the normal 60 & 70 for the last two years and the Euro/Krone/Krona/Swiss Franc have also seen acceptable returns. I can only see that North America has really been affected.

Recent oil price hike will have nibbled at many peoples disposable income but there is no sign of major increases in tourist destination flights yet. Maybe recent fliers have seen different. The airlines seem to be focusing on the business traveler.

The general rule of thumb for airlines is Oil price up = fares up, empty seats = fares down. Looks like at the moment the two are balancing each other out. Also some of the tickets being sold at the bucket shops are as much as two years old.

Having said all that I believe that all the factors are having a combined effect.

What doesn't help at all is the apparent EU policy of keeping tourism at home.

How about Morecambe though. Anybody know the exchange rate?

sargeant · Post by **sargeant** » Fri Sep 12, 2008 4:44 pm

guess i will agree quote"all the factors are having a combined effect"

I dont understand quote "Also some of the tickets being sold at the bucket shops are as much as two years old."

I dont think you can buy a ticket more than one year in advance in buying an actual seat number and a flight number
i think you can book but not buy further in advance i may be wrong but when i worked at BA that was how it was

This holiday company that has just gone belly up today in the UK is gonna put another damper on travel over the next 6 months as well
85,000 tourists stranded

Post by **sandman67** » Fri Sep 12, 2008 5:01 pm

it has no effect unless your in the condo or hotel buisiness,i have frinds who are based in pattaya,they have had a few cancellations ,

I read in various papers this week that the big tour companies are seeing a 30% reduction on last years figures for bookings to Thailand....seems those airport closures have put people off....what a surprise.

It will affect my missus' business, (she runs a bar), and hit the pockets of the lasses who work there, the street traders, the beer suppliers, etc. Thereby it will hit me too.

The knock on effects have also hit me. Clients have canceled work here as the current climate isn't conducive to our business. At least two trade conferences/seminars I was due to attend, one in BKK and one here in HH, have been canceled. I get hit again.

Indirectly it hits the economy at large....which hits me again.

nobody is getting out of this unscathed mate.

Post by **Guess** » Sat Sep 13, 2008 1:44 pm

sargeant wrote: I dont understand quote "Also some of the tickets being sold at the bucket shops are as much as two years old."

I really should have said seats rather than tickets.

When an airline makes a bid for a new route or a continuation of an existing route it has to raise finances (on paper at least), to justify to the bean counters that is worth doing. One common way of doing that is by seat broking.

Blocks of seat options are offered in the market place. Dealers buy the options at a nominal cost. Those seats are then reserved. The certificate permits the holder, at the time of sale of the ticket, which as you say is no more than one year ahead of the flight time to purchase the seat for the preset price.

The options then change hands many times between traders before ending up in the hands of travel brokers and travel agents and even sometimes back to the issuing airline. They will then be redeemed and the seat will be paid for in full at the preset rate.

The routes can be applied for up to 3 years before the flight departs.

To give an example:

MAS 001 LHR KUL 13/09/20011

Blocks of 10 economy seats on offer for $4000 per block. Option certificate $100.

If the route is always full and there is a demand the dealer sells the option for lets say 200$.

Eventually someone has the right to purchase.

If the flight price has dropped to below $400 the option is not worth the paper it's printed on but maybe can be redeemed with the airline for a small admin charge.

This explains how ticket prices vary so much depending upon where you buy them. The travel agent need to only to get $500 dollars per seat where the airline may need $800 to balance its books for the flight.

sargeant · Post by **sargeant** » Sat Sep 13, 2008 2:14 pm

Thats just about how i understood it although at BA they rarely went more than a year in advance as flights dont even come up on the staff booking system until its only one year away
I also believe that 5 or 10 days before the flight the airline gets back so to speak unsold tickets at zero so some companys send them back to the airline early to get at least something back on them

Post by **Guess** » Sat Sep 13, 2008 5:45 pm

sargeant wrote:I also believe that 5 or 10 days before the flight the airline gets back so to speak unsold tickets at zero so some companys send them back to the airline early to get at least something back on them

I think all the very large airlines do their own thing. They are often cash rich anyway so don't need to sell options.

The airline getting the tickets back is what I meant by returning them to the airlines for a small redemption. I you return the options before the cut off date the airline save a load of admin hassle so are happy to give you a little to help them out. The seats return to them whatever.

Unsold seats is usually aimed at being -10%. I.e. If there are 100 seats they would like to have sold and have confirmed 110 fares.

I have been passenger 101 and 102 a few times and I got well paid for it. It doesn't usually happen though. I was commuting by air at the time.