Condoking wrote:STEVE G wrote:After ten minutes on the net over my morning tea, I’m going to predict 59 bt to the pound by September.
There was not too much science involved in this, and it is largely based on an up-beat forecast on sterling that I found on a financial site.
Sorry Steve I go in the other direction towards the 40 baht level. Reason being the UK is heading rapidly towards bankruptcy and no-one wants to take on their debt, one report today predicts a possible further fall in house prices of 55% from todays level.
Europe and Japan are equally in the mire with Europe dithering and unable to get consensus, the Euro will probably plunge in teh next few months against teh greenback.
Japans economy is export driven and collapsing about their knees. They have never recovered from teh "lost" decade and the Yen is no place for investment.
So what about the US, yes it is in trouble probably bankrupt but investors simply have nowhere else to put their money, not the best place these days but probably the least worse. Don't forget Iran tried moving away from teh Dollar a few years back but simply could not find sufficient alternative currency available. The Dollar will continue to rule until the world at large simply does not believe in it, but, in the international banking world, it will take a brave investor to make the first move.
As for "Miked" choosing September can only think that the auspicious date of "090909" comes to haunt us.
Condoking 
Good analysis
CK,
Thailand has only started to feel the effects of the depression around the World. The Baht may be high at the moment but no one is going to invest here, until the World economy picks up.
The cost of the high Baht, is hurting their export markets.
Investors, as you say, will go for US $ as there is nowhere else to go.
UK GBP is dropping like a stone (interest rates at .50% and no banks are lending to business and the same applies to American business.
What good is a strong Baht when it stifles the export market in Thailand.
The tourist market here is only 6.5% of GDP but the export market is way bigger.
Who was it that said "Export or die"?
The Thai Government need to devalue to around 60-65 Baht to the £ or the holiday and export markets are going to dry up.
Last year the Chinese were looking at tying their currency to the dollar, now they, like other countries are holding tight and not investing overseas.
They have an underlying unemployment rate at around 20 million and many believe that could double.
Think about this, if the cheapest manufacturing country in the World (China) is not making the stuff, it is because the rest of the World is not buying, because it has no funds to buy with.
If countries are not buying cheap goods from China, what hope for Thai exports, which are more expensive due to the strong Baht rate.
Most of the EU countries are in the shit (having to integrate new poor economies of the new EU members, who are all as poor as church mice) and running around like headless chickens, and the Euro is all over the place but may steady if the Governments stop protectionism policies.
Banks around the World, have to start to lend to business soon, or the lot will go down the pan.
It may take bank nationalisation by the larger countries to get it started but the money market must open up, to help get us out of this depression.
If companies cannot get funds for inward investment, that's when they start to fail, and previous loans are called in. This results in redundancies and fire sales, never a good thing.
Let us hope that Obama can get the rest of the World to pull together as unilateral solutions will not work. It will take multilateral action to get us out of this mess.
Even back up to 60 baht in a pound would give you an extra half a million. 
