Red shirt mass rally on Wednseday ... who cares?

[caller]

News from the Beeb that it's kicking off:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-p ... 996241.stm

Reports elsewhere of gunfire. Hope the media are present.

[margaretcarnes]

Hi Chas - yes I do agree that Abhisit seems a decent and well educated guy. No doubt he could do a good job given the chance. But he came to power on the back of last years troubles, and clearly hasn't been able - for whatever reason - to take control.
In almost any other country the buck stops with the PM/President or whoever. In LOS at the moment that doesn't seem to be happening. As Spitfire has pointed out he has to be diplomatic, but at what cost?
But in answer to the most recent question yes, updates are being given now by the Beeb, who just reported from Bangers that there have been shots fired, with footage showing the conflict.
An hour ago there were pics of a couple of people being taken away on stretchers. That has now been cut, and the situation is now said to be one of 'standoff' between military and protesters. It certainly isn't over thats for sure.
I think VS has hit the nail on the head. The ordinary working Thai people really don't care and will go for a days jolly outing just for a change and a free T shirt. Much as we disagree with that type of 'democracy' it seems to be a fact. Hence the apparent changes in allegiance from one group to another.
Much as I hate to admit it, I'm beginning to wonder if Thaksins return to power might be the only way out of the mess now, because I personally think that would be preferable than seeing LOS end up like Burma.

[Wanderlust]

Mags,
You can't be serious? The man is a convicted criminal who is responsible for the mess Thailand is in now! He has instigated everything and the responses to it that have happened since he was ousted, and you want to have him in charge? I don't know if you have seen any of the broadcasts he has made to his supporters, but he comes across in his delivery as scarily reminiscent of Hitler, with a wild eyed and almost lunatic appearance. It has been clear to me all along that his end game is to be installed as President and end the monarchy, but of course he would never say that. As VS says, it appears a large number of the people demonstrating on both sides do not really understand what they are doing, and on the red side it is like blind devotion to Thaksin, while on the yellow side blind defending of the status quo, without any thought about what the alternatives might be. The people are being used and abused by the elites on both sides but in my opinion the yellow elite are the least worst.

[Nereus]

I sometimes wonder if the Red shirts really know what they're protesting about. I also wonder if some of the Red shirts were possibly wearing Yellow shirts last year. Thailand is spiralling into demonstration fever, and it's contagious.............

If a bus turned up tomorrow with some free red t-shirts, and a trip to Bangkok (food included) they'd be on it like a shot. It's party time, and a heck of a lot more exciting than their normal humdrum lives.
VS

I think that this is a very true evaluation of what is happening. But doesn't this lead to the question of why the authorities cannot control it. It is the old storey of "cut off the head of the snake". Remove the known leaders off the street and the rest of them will go home. Mai Pen Rai!

[margaretcarnes]

Yes Wanderlust - I am serious. I'm not saying that Thaksin is the best option for Thailand by any means. But - given the present so called democratic system, the 'blind devotion' to Thaksin by the reds, the lack of thought about alternatives by the yelows who, as you say, are blindly defending the status quo, I think that his re-instatement would at least allow for a period of consolidation - if that is the right word.
A period during which the Thai electorate could have the opportunity to see if they are in fact sufficiently concerned about their country to democratically vote him out again.
Or whether they will again go along with the 50 baht vote version of democracy.
At the end of the day I don't think it is for us farangs to dictate the future of Thai politics. They need to do it their own way, even if we can see the flaws and pitfalls. People learn by experience. Or maybe not in the case of LOS. I do think that even Thaksin is preferable to what may well become military rule.

[Chas]

VS you put it very well. I got that sense of things from watching the video footage of the reds in action . . .hey, its a party! We get paid, we get free food, we get to wave our arms in victory and appear on TV . . .we dont have jobs so what the hell. Songkran with tear gas and bullets instead of water.

They seem to be the usual jobless, young, male (possibly angry) easily fired up and easily misled mob that you see in Moldova.

I also sense that it is 99.9% life as usual countrywide. ( Well, life as usual during the drunken mayhem that is Songkran.) And that Thai people even a few blocks away from Victory Monument are either watching events on TV or just ignoring the whole business.

What surprises me most is that the Army (and even our beloved police) have no pride in their organization. Most armies function on unit pride, heroism, patriotism, loyalty and the like . . ..when you let unarmed idiots take your tank and your weapon . .something just isnt right.

Watching late last night, I kept wondering why the troops didnt move in the middle of the night, clear out the installation in front of Govt house and work from there. Arrest everyone in a red shirt. Load them into buses and get them out of town. But that is me sitting in front of my TV.

Sorry Mags, but I can't agree with Taksin's return on any level. Absolute disaster with complete chaos resulting IMHO.

Military rule works for me.

This is a feudal country after all ( pooyai is the strongest social force) and strong top-down leadership is probably all that will really work for the next century.

[margaretcarnes]

Exactly Chas - why didn't the troops move in last night to disperse groups which were well in excess of numbers allowed under state of emergency rules? Why didn't they move in similarly on Friday night in Pattaya?
Comparisons with Western laws are largely irrelevant and won't change things in LOS but hey - in England these laws on numbers of protesters gathering at any one time have been in place for many years regardless of whether there is a state of emergency. And are enforced. To the extent that during Civil Service strikes in the 80's I've chased around a city centre at 7 in the morning ensuring that pickets were deployed in correct numbers at various workplaces. We daren't risk any arrests, and observed the law whichever government was in power.
In Bangkok now the protests are against the state of emergency. Surely successive governments are at fault for not enforcing some quite basic principals of law and order?

[Chas]

If you want to see how ordinary Thai people feel about the red shirts . .check out the Youtube video entitled " Redshirt getout" or
Red-shirted shooed away by people at Sathorn Intersection .

It shows the reds trying to block the road and a whole lot of ordinary citizens taking action against them and yelling "get out, get out" People get off their motorcycles and move the barricades and finally the reds have to withdraw . .well beaten.

Interesting look at things.

[SuperTonic]

Of course the situation's hideously complicated, but really there are I think only 2 alternatives available, Thaksin or the military. Essentially no-one can govern this country unless they're strong enough to exercise control, in the absence of such a leader anarchy reigns.

This brings to mind the Iraqi situation, where as much as Saddam Hussein was a complete tosser the country was much more stable with a despot in charge. Soon as he's gone all the lunatics escape the asylum. In a way I can't help but think that's happened here, in that as soon as our despotic leader Thaksin was off the scene all the nutcases came out to play.

To be honest, that means that at present a normal democratic politician wouldn't be able to maintain control here, and what's needed is a brutal dictator, if only to calm things down for a while and get the country on an even keel.

The need for stability is obvious, as even if it's military rule, if we can have that stability for a decent period of time it'll enable the tourists to return, money to flow into Thailand and investment to be made into education to solve the mess long term.

It's a complicated mess and the solutions aren't traditional western ones but Thailand's needs are a little different to those of the west.

[buksida]

The need for stability is obvious, as even if it's military rule, if we can have that stability for a decent period of time it'll enable the tourists to return, money to flow into Thailand and investment to be made into education to solve the mess long term.

It's a complicated mess and the solutions aren't traditional western ones but Thailand's needs are a little different to those of the west.

I'd agree with that, Thaksins return will only add fuel to an already raging fire - he is the cause of this split and only he can end it. Although we have seen in the past how inept the military are at running the country so it really isnt going to get much better here for a long time.

[STEVE G]

Yes, the big problem now is that nobody seems to be prepared to find any middle ground.
Following the 2006 coup, Thaksin was pushed into a corner where he really was left in a situation where he had nothing to lose by trying to get back into power.
The new government should have left him with something if they had wanted to avoid this.
Conversely the people who really rule Thailand should start making some changes now instead of thinking they can just carry on running the country for then own benefit.
If the people in the countryside had been given any consideration over the last couple of years they wouldn’t be so desperate to join the Red-shirt movement.
Changes are inevitable and it would be better to have some sort of gradual change than a revolutionary one.

[Wanderlust]

If the people in the countryside had been given any consideration over the last couple of years they wouldn’t be so desperate to join the Red-shirt movement.

Very few people in Thailand have ever been given much consideration by the politicians, and that includes Thaksin, but some very clever spin has made everyone believe that the poor were better off with him in charge - the fact that he made more people more debt ridden is conveniently ignored.
Are they desperate to join this movement? Someone quoted a poll earlier saying that 75% of the population wanted an end to all these demos - I don't know how reliable that is, but from both red and yellow sides (and blue I guess) just because they get maybe 100,000 people in a demo doesn't mean they have majority support, particularly when there is plenty of actual and anecdotal evidence to say that these crowds are swelled substantially by people who just want a 'jolly' paid for by someone else. Even if you ask people they may give you an 'official' answer, the one they have been told by the village headman, and they don't want to cross him even if they do think differently. We don't know enough about what the Thai people truly think, but then again thinking for themselves on national issues was drummed out of them at school.
What happened before and what is happening now must be stopped by the rule of law but it seems that the forces charged with enforcing the law are being given conflicting instructions; if Abhisit wants to sort this out he needs to relieve of their duties the commanders who are going against his instructions, and put in place those who support him, much like Thaksin did and any number of Prime Ministers have in the past. I suspect though that other forces are at play here that we are unaware of. If the leaders of all sides genuinely cared for the people of Thailand then they would get together and talk about the best way forward, but they only care about how much money is in it for them. The sooner the Thai people believe and understand that, the sooner we might have a real revolution, but its never going to happen.

Now, when is the baht going to tank?

[JAJA]

Siam Paragon and all Central stores have been closed. A small but serious sign that things are getting out of control in Bangkok.

[STEVE G]

- the fact that he made more people more debt ridden is conveniently ignored.

WL, you make him sound as bad as Gordon Brown!

[sandman67]

seems from reading across the raw newsfeeds on NNT that the problem stems from the orders issued to the forces:

After the pubic order debacle last October the government are running scared of accusations of being too hard on the protesters. Hence security forces have been told to NOT use violent or forceful means to exert control.

So none of them are armed, most of them arent carrying batons, and some of them, including the soldiers acting as the last line at the hotel doors, dont even have shields.

The thais are also not trained, like the UK police are, in crowd control and riot tactics. Thais have two responses: shoot, or stand around.

Under these circumstances how does anyone expect control to be exerted?

Yesterday and this morning saw the situation escalate, again at the hands of the red mob, to conditions that I would argue amount t serious insurrection.

The Court building in BKK was attacked by redshirts with a M79 grenade launcher. A major water pipe nexus was bombed using three IEDs made by the redshirts. Two APCs were seized. Four soldiers were shot. The reds have started using LPG trucks as potentially explosive bargaining chips...one parked outside an apartment block full of terrified citizens.

The use of explosives and military weapons now makes this insurrection, not a sodding protest. Its now time to take off the velvet glove, and give them a good taste of the iron fist. Smash them hard, smash them now....and hopefully they will stay cowed.

Make the trials public and visible, expose the crimes, and show people what happens to terrorists....which is what the mob leaders and their corps of "peoples guards" have now become.

My mate tool a walk down Koh San Road yesterday and said it was a ghosttown......a bar owner there said there were hardly any tourists about.

When the backpackers stop coming we had all better start getting concerned....backpackers are the last tourists to cancel trips...and they are canceling now.

Kiss your profits goodbye business owners....proper tough times ahead now.

WL: Well said mate. As we say in our business....wrap a turd in gold leaf....its STILL A TURD.