Just When We Thought The Pound Was Recovering

Post by **BaaBaa.** » Fri Oct 16, 2009 4:20 pm

Has anybody looked why the Baht fell?

Google "Thai stock market falls"

Post by **JimmyGreaves** » Fri Oct 16, 2009 5:24 pm

BaaBaa. wrote:Has anybody looked why the Baht fell?

Google "Thai stock market falls"

Don't think the baht fell. The pound improved against all currencies since the slump a few weeks ago.

Post by **cookmanchef** » Fri Oct 16, 2009 5:54 pm

BoE and government panicked when the £ started recovering too soon. They have been taking every opportunity since to talk it down as they need it weak against $ and Euro until Q2/3 next year. The reason for the spike this week is because of some positive comments from Charlie Bean, the speculators will jump on anything at the moment.

As recovery continues £ will strengthen against $, Euro and Yen because the appetite for risk will return, AUD is rising partly because they are the first central bank to raise interest rates but also because risk appetite is returning and they are one of the worlds leading commodity providers.

It looks to me like the Thai government has no strategy re the baht, just allow it to find its own level whatever that me be. My money would still be 60 baht-£ by early next year and 65 by this time next year.

sargeant · Post by **sargeant** » Fri Oct 16, 2009 6:29 pm

very interesting i think hhfarangs point about inflation is very relevant to all who live or move anywhere however BB point about exchange rates are also relevant
i worked on 40 baht to the pound slightly above the average i had seen over the 10 years of marriage to my first Thai wife before i came.
I must admit i did not calculate a mortgage let alone rent as i did not expect to loose my first house here
As for inflation i am fortunate to have a pension that is increased by the inflaton rate in the UK up to a max of 5% each year

Post by **Big Boy** » Fri Oct 16, 2009 8:17 pm

sargeant wrote:As for inflation i am fortunate to have a pension that is increased by the inflaton rate in the UK up to a max of 5% each year

Are you going to be hit by the freeze on Civil Service pensions? I ask because they come from the same source as yours.

Post by **STEVE G** » Fri Oct 16, 2009 9:39 pm

JimmyGreaves wrote:
STEVE G wrote:HH makes a good point as inflation is more dangerous to long term plans than currency fluctuations that will tend to average out over the years.
This is why I intend to keep working as long as I possibly can as I can't see a way to fund a retirement at the prices that are likely to exist in 30 years time.
Waiting for the golden moment is also a huge risk as it may never come.

To be honest JG, with the present state of the investment market and the condition of the pot that I hoped to retire on, there is not much chance of a golden moment ever happening.

Post by **Norseman** » Fri Oct 16, 2009 11:24 pm

STEVE G wrote:the pot that I hoped to retire on,

What pot Steve?
Think you need to make a statement here.

Post by **STEVE G** » Fri Oct 16, 2009 11:32 pm

Ah yes, I meant pot as in a container that you keep spare money in and I promise that we're only growing rice in Issan!

Post by **loverboy44** » Sat Oct 17, 2009 5:08 am

Cookmanchef, sorry to say, yor wishes will not come true.
The UK did the worst mistake not join the EUR.
There are no signs that the GBP will recover.
Actually the opposite. The Uk is too small to actually act in any influence now.
And unfortunately They can only grow with their banks because there is no significant production any more.
I see the GBP at arround 50 Baht for quite some time.

Post by **STEVE G** » Sat Oct 17, 2009 5:37 am

The UK did the worst mistake not join the EUR.

I spent most of the last four years working in Luxenbourg and I agree with you; the UK has really made a complete mess of the European situation, they should have got more involved from the start.

sargeant · Post by **sargeant** » Sat Oct 17, 2009 10:12 am

No BB i transfered my Army pension to My now British Airways pension so not civil service wholly private Plus most of my pension is made up of additional voluntary contributions when working at BA
in fact this year was the first time i got the full 5%

Post by **cookmanchef** » Sat Oct 17, 2009 10:55 am

Just to say the strength of the £ isn't very relevant to me at the moment, much more important for inflation to be kept under control.

Eurozone recovery is going to suffer greatly if the single currency stays this strong, they have just recorded a record trade deficit. They cannot use fiscal policy to control the rate because what would be required for Germany would destroy Ireland and Spain.

I don't think it's about exerting influence anymore, although the Uk is still the 5th largest economy we all know that Russia, India and Brazil will sweep past anytime soon, just wish Brown would realise that and get our soldiers out of Afghanistan.

People are always too quick to write off the UK, I've been hearing it since Harold Wilson and Ted Heath tried to wreck the place. All the figures coming out now are more positive than anyone could have expected, £ will jump as we approach the election and a tory win becomes a certainty.

Post by **Huahinian** » Sat Oct 17, 2009 11:25 am

loverboy44 wrote:
The UK did the worst mistake not join the EUR.

The worst mistake the UK made was to join the EU at all. The theory of a European Union is good but it was inevitable that it would become a bureaucratic playground run by committees!

PET · Post by **PET** » Sat Oct 17, 2009 5:14 pm

Well said Huahinian - all we needed was a European Trade Agreement and Defence ie EFTA and NATO.

If the citizens had ever been allowed to vote we would NOT be in it, and there is nobody who can deny that would have been the overwhelming vote

Post by **loverboy44** » Sat Oct 17, 2009 5:28 pm

Oh, the Irish voted first no but now as the Euro zone saved their asses, quickly changed their minds.
The UK are not even able to decide.
Britannia rules the world..............if the world is only the UK.