Tourism on the Rebound?

[lomuamart]

I was talking to someone today who seems to know his stuff regarding tourism as a %age of GDP.
OK, it might be 6-7% now, but 3 years ago it was 14%.
And they're saying that tourism dosn't matter as it's only 6-7%.
Give me a break.

[lomuamart]

Richard,
So exports from Thailand are up 30%? According to who?
Their exports are about 30% more expensive than 18 months ago. Do you think that the main rice buyer for Tesco in the UK is going to put up with that? Of course not. They're starting to buy from India and Vietnam now.
Thailand's export industry is messed up with the strong Baht. It might not be hitting yet, but it will.

[PeteC]

I don't know how deeply they dig to arrive at their 6-7% number. Let's see if we can come up with some things maybe not included.

- Investor shareholdings in resorts/hotels/condo rentals that are averaging 20% occupancy.
- Canceled investment for new properties and subsequent construction/materials job losses.
- Beach vendors and other small operators who escape the accountability net.
- MC taxi and Baht bus revenues, and associated new vehicle purchases.
- Restaurant closures and lower demand for food/supply purchases.
- Drop in charity contributions to various institutions.
- Effects on hospitals geared towards medical tourism.

Any more? Pete

[richard]

And another Pete

Withdrawal from sponsoring websites

[kendo]

I think that figure seems low how can you measure how many girls work on bars it's a black economy.
For me the biggest factor is the exchange rate my two holidays a year is now one and this is the same for a lot of people.
Kendo.

[sargeant]

i think you will find it is a figure based on surveys of how much tourists tell the canvassers they spend
multiplied by how many tourists/tourist days etcetc and then the proportion of gdp
however you will notice remunerations from Thais abroad dont seem to be included and i would bet thats a few %

i do think however farangs have an overblown view of how much tourism is worth to the economy individual towns maybe but the country as a whole i dont think its much

and it has always been around 6 %

[caller]

I agree with Kendo in respect of those of us that have a little knowledge on Thailand - the exchange rate is a killer. I know it still doesn't make LOS the most expensive place to go to, but it still pushes the budget up - by about a third for Brits, from when there was 70 baht to the pound.

Thats without normal inflation on things like hotel costs, which have shot up in Hua Hin. For example, a hotel I stayed in about 4 years ago, via Sawadee, cost 1000 baht (in May). Now, the same hotel, same room type, for the same period, charges 1572 baht.

So you could probably safely calculate that in the last 3/4 years, the total cost has gone up by about 50% at least. If you add that to a family group travelling, that is a lot of extra money to find to pay for a holiday.

Interestingly, I Just read a travel report from last week where Jamaican authorities were sounding very like the Thais, stating the recent shootings (60 dead) were miles away from the holiday hotspots that are unaffected, now I wouldn't have known that as I have always viewed Jamaica as a fairly small island? So same issue, different holiday hotspot, same outcome, folk just don't want to risk it.

Its been reported that you have more chance getting a late booking anywhere other than in the UK this summer (assuming we get one, although yesterday was nice!). It appears a lot of UK folk are holidaying in the UK this year because of the value of the pound abroad, flight issues, trouble elsewhere etc. with many places reporting record bookings.

[PeteC]

Only posting the link as charts worth looking at on the subjects we're talking about. Pete

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/eco ... -the-issue

[Jimbob]

taken from a Thai tourism site, the arrivals graph shows the flat lining as expected but it will recover provided external government warnings are reduced. Most attention has been on BKK but you usually have to pass through the airport! Timid uninformed people are colour blind on OHS be it red or yellow fever. Interesting note included about the importance of local tourism and maybe what affects that has on BKK.

[buksida]

I don't have any faith in figures from TAT - they're largely a marketing ploy by bureaucrats that want to keep their jobs. Ask any hotelier and you'll get figures closer to the truth.

Exchange rate is a killer but I can't see them adjusting it just for tourists and only 6% of their GDP, Asian economies are getting stronger and western ones weaker - the trend will continue I reckon.

Instead of running tacky TV adverts they could try being a little more constructive to entice tourists back such as outlawing dual-pricing, promoting new hot-spots that are off the beaten track, coming down hard on those that scam tourists, instructing hotels and golf courses to cut prices instead of increasing them etc etc.

[richard]

coming down hard on those that scam tourists, instructing hotels and golf courses to cut prices instead of increasing them etc etc.

I agree but look at the face losing involved

[sargeant]

Tourism on the rebound?

at the moment about as much as a plasticine ball rebounds when thrown at a brick wall

[richard]

Have a cruise round the Binterblock and talk to bar owners and guest house owners and you'll the real picture for them for me

[sargeant]

When I read that Thailand has 138 bn US$ in its reserve and the UK only 56 bn which is slightly more than Ireland which has slightly more than Portugal which is slightly more than Spain and Greece and Iceland are stony broke.
Plus according to HHF the States are in their Obama induced economical death throws.
I am left wondering just where the next wave of tourists are going to come from.
Iran, North Korea, Libya, Zimbabwe, Uganda, Somalia, Yemen, Iraq, Afghanistan, Gaza, West Bank, Lebanon.
I don’t know what I am worrying about the list is endless

[Spitfire]

Having already commented on this thread about the exchange rate etc, then I reckon I can agree with some of what some people have said and some good suggestions.

However, I sometimes don't think they really give a toss about tourism or how long it takes to rebound regardless of the figures, sure, it would be a bonus if it all went back to normality quickly but they appear to be unwilling to do much that is really needed apart from lip-service as to do what has been suggested in this thread would represent a threat to the 'way of things' and 'how things work'. We want our cake and we want to eat it seems to be the case, yes, it's important, but not as important as the social/political/economic plans of the few.

Even though there are huge numbers of people employed in the tourism business or related businesses, all these people that benefit or have jobs from the trade are all members of the sections of society that the system doesn't care about and slaves losing their jobs or money is of no consequence to the system or those that run it. This section of workers also includes the electronics component factories etc and many others.

The reports of the government throwing money at the business/es is simply going to help the tour operator owners or the owners of hotels/factories etc, the big players that can whinge and get listened to, won't help anyone else, only the wrong people will benefit from it.