Covid-19 News & Updates
Re: China Coronavirus
8 in UK now. But this cruise ship seems like in for a long quarantine: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... on-sets-in.
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pharvey
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Re: China Coronavirus
A bit of a change to the estimates......
"Just under a fifth of known cases of the new coronavirus in China may be resulting in death, a new report from Imperial College London estimates.
Researchers from the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis have found that the case fatality ratio (CFR) for people in Hubei province is 18%. They estimate the CFR is much lower in travellers outside China, between 1.2 and 5.6%, and the overall CFR in all infections, both asymptomatic and symptomatic, is around approximately 1%.
The researchers said:
It is important to note that the differences in these estimates does not reflect underlying differences in disease severity between countries. CFRs seen in individual countries will vary depending on the sensitivity of different surveillance systems to detect cases of differing levels of severity and the clinical care offered to severely ill cases.
All CFR estimates should be viewed cautiously at the current time as the sensitivity of surveillance of both deaths and cases in mainland China is unclear."
Again Taken From: - https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... atest-news
"Just under a fifth of known cases of the new coronavirus in China may be resulting in death, a new report from Imperial College London estimates.
Researchers from the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis have found that the case fatality ratio (CFR) for people in Hubei province is 18%. They estimate the CFR is much lower in travellers outside China, between 1.2 and 5.6%, and the overall CFR in all infections, both asymptomatic and symptomatic, is around approximately 1%.
The researchers said:
It is important to note that the differences in these estimates does not reflect underlying differences in disease severity between countries. CFRs seen in individual countries will vary depending on the sensitivity of different surveillance systems to detect cases of differing levels of severity and the clinical care offered to severely ill cases.
All CFR estimates should be viewed cautiously at the current time as the sensitivity of surveillance of both deaths and cases in mainland China is unclear."
Again Taken From: - https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... atest-news
"Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things" - Yma o Hyd.
Re: China Coronavirus
Thanks for that. I think I've already said that the figure to watch is the percentage of deaths/recovered in cases that have concluded. Using the confirmed case figure in estimating a death rate is flawed and mostly speculation.
Currently deaths are 20% of cases with an outcome.
That is the figure to watch.
Currently deaths are 20% of cases with an outcome.
That is the figure to watch.
Re: China Coronavirus
From: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/0 ... ak-latest/
China changes definition of 'confirmed' case
Some interesting reporting from Alex Lam, a reporter for Apple Daily in Hong Kong, who has found that many provinces and cities have subtracted confirmed cases from the records in the last few days.
The move reportedly comes after the National Health and Medical Commission changed the definition of what constitutes a "confirmed case" - patients who test positive but have no confirmed symptoms will no longer be counted.
Although these asymptomatic cases were supposedly being checked separately, Alex Lam found that the figures have not been independently released.
"The disguise prevented the public from knowing the actual number of infections," the reporter wrote.
Helen Branswell, senior infectious disease reporter for Stat News, added that this move could skew mortality rate figures: "We want to know more about how much mild/asymptomatic disease there is, not less," she wrote.
More information on this in the tweets below:
Alex Lam 林偉聰
@lwcalex
Chinese National Health Commission has changed their definition of #WuhanCoronavirus "confirmed case" in their latest guidelines dated 7/2. Patients tested positive for the virus but have no symptoms will no longer be regarded as confirmed. This inevitably will lower the numbers.
View image on Twitter
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19:07 - 10 Feb 2020
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China changes definition of 'confirmed' case
Some interesting reporting from Alex Lam, a reporter for Apple Daily in Hong Kong, who has found that many provinces and cities have subtracted confirmed cases from the records in the last few days.
The move reportedly comes after the National Health and Medical Commission changed the definition of what constitutes a "confirmed case" - patients who test positive but have no confirmed symptoms will no longer be counted.
Although these asymptomatic cases were supposedly being checked separately, Alex Lam found that the figures have not been independently released.
"The disguise prevented the public from knowing the actual number of infections," the reporter wrote.
Helen Branswell, senior infectious disease reporter for Stat News, added that this move could skew mortality rate figures: "We want to know more about how much mild/asymptomatic disease there is, not less," she wrote.
More information on this in the tweets below:
Alex Lam 林偉聰
@lwcalex
Chinese National Health Commission has changed their definition of #WuhanCoronavirus "confirmed case" in their latest guidelines dated 7/2. Patients tested positive for the virus but have no symptoms will no longer be regarded as confirmed. This inevitably will lower the numbers.
View image on Twitter
430
19:07 - 10 Feb 2020
Twitter Ads information and privacy
518 people are talking about this
Re: China Coronavirus
If this is proven to be true, it makes no sense at all. It would certainly show less infections but as far as skewing the mortality rate, it would increase the perceived death rate percentage. By not including these figures, they would also be lowering the figures for those recovered which has a direct bearing on the mortality rate.
This would show the virus to be worse than it actually is. It is in their interests to report all positive tests thereby showing the true number of recoveries as well as deaths.
This would show the virus to be worse than it actually is. It is in their interests to report all positive tests thereby showing the true number of recoveries as well as deaths.
Re: China Coronavirus
Start of another day in the 'End of the World' saga. Figures updated at 08:27 Thai time today:
43,101 confirmed cases ( up 2,548)
Deaths: 1,018 (up 108)
4,043 recovered. (up 719)
Currently infected: 38,040
Mild cases 30,685 (81% of currently infected)
Serious or critical: 7,345 (19% of currently infected)
Recovered or died: 5,061
Recovered/discharged: 4,043 (80% of the total with outcome)
Died 1,018 (20% of cases with an outcome) Keep an eye on this percentage.
43,101 confirmed cases ( up 2,548)
Deaths: 1,018 (up 108)
4,043 recovered. (up 719)
Currently infected: 38,040
Mild cases 30,685 (81% of currently infected)
Serious or critical: 7,345 (19% of currently infected)
Recovered or died: 5,061
Recovered/discharged: 4,043 (80% of the total with outcome)
Died 1,018 (20% of cases with an outcome) Keep an eye on this percentage.
Re: China Coronavirus
Here is the Time Line from February 10 by Bloomberg News. Videos and "earlier developments" at link:
https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/18551 ... rus-update
--China death toll at 1,016, an increase of 108; confirmed cases at 42,638
--Anutin says cruise ship blocked from other ports won’t be allowed to disembark in Thailand
--China’s Hubei province has removed two health officials from their posts, according to state television, as the death toll from the coronavirus climbed above 1,000
--The dismissals in the province at the centre of the outbreak come as criticism mounts over China’s transparency and speed in handling the epidemic
--President Xi Jinping made his first public appearance after the death of a doctor who became a hero for speaking out about the deadly coronavirus sparked public anger.
Latest developments:
Singapore sees up to 30% drop in tourism (9.32am)
Singapore could see a 25% to 30% decline in tourist arrivals and spending this year because of the coronavirus outbreak, as the industry braces for a worse impact than the 2003 SARS pandemic, the city’s tourism chief said.
The city-state is losing about 18,000 to 20,000 tourists a day, and the figures could plummet further if the situation persists for longer, Keith Tan, chief executive of Singapore Tourism Board, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV.
China accounts for about 20% of Singapore’s tourism intake, the biggest source of visitors ahead of Indonesia and India. China’s ban on outbound tour groups and Singapore’s move to bar Chinese nationals from entering has led to an “evaporation” of a key source of revenue, Tan said.
China’s Hubei province removes top health officials (8.04am)
China’s Hubei province at the centre of the virus outbreak has removed health commission head Liu Yingzi and party chief Zhang Jin from their posts, state-run CCTV reported.
Criticism has mounted over China’s transparency and speed in handling the epidemic. The government’s struggle to stem the outbreak has fuelled concerns about President Xi Jinping’s efforts to centralise power since taking office, with officials pointing fingers over who’s to blame for the spread of the illness.
The death last week of a 34-year-old doctor, Li Wenliang, who was sanctioned by local authorities after warning about the disease, unleashed a torrent of grief and anger on social media.
Thailand says ship won’t be allowed to disembark (7.56am)
Passengers from a ship that has been blocked from other ports due to virus concerns won’t be given permission to disembark in Thailand, Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul said in a Facebook post.
The Westerdam cruise ship, operated by Carnival Corp’s Holland America, has been refused entry by a number of nations over fears that passengers may be carrying the coronavirus.
The ship departed Hong Kong on Feb 1 with 1,455 passengers and 802 crew. It is set to arrive at a port near Bangkok on Thursday, and checks with health authorities indicate there is “no reason to believe there are any cases of coronavirus on board the ship,” Holland America said in a statement Monday.
Elderly may be released from Japan ship: Kyodo (7.32am)
The Japanese government may allow senior citizens and people with chronic illnesses to leave the Diamond Princess cruise ship on Tuesday morning, Kyodo news reported, citing people it didn’t identify.
The number of coronavirus infections among those aboard the Carnival Corp ship quarantined off Yokohama has nearly doubled to 135, making it the biggest centre of infection of any place outside of China.
Risks are mounting that the virus could spread further in the confined spaces of the ship, where many on board have increased vulnerability due to their advanced ages.
Hong Kong public housing residents evacuated (7.30am)
More than 100 people at a public housing estate in Hong Kong were evacuated in the early hours of Tuesday after two people in the tower were confirmed to have contracted the novel coronavirus, South China Morning Post reported.
The move was precautionary after a 62-year-old woman, who lives several floors directly below a man who had earlier confirmed with the virus infection, became the 42nd cases in Hong Kong, according to the report.
China death toll at 1,016 (7.17am)
The death toll in China from the coronavirus rose to 1,016, with the addition of 108 fatalities for Feb 10, according to the National Health Commission. Hubei, the province at the centre of the outbreak, reported 103 more deaths, its highest daily count so far.
While the total confirmed cases in mainland China climbed to 42,638, Hubei reported 2,097 new infections, the smallest daily increase since Feb 1.
Most cases and deaths in China are in Hubei. Large parts of the province have been cut off from the rest of China since the government started imposing a quarantine on Jan. 23 to try and stop the spread of the virus.
Two additional deaths have occurred outside of mainland China: one in Hong Kong and the other in the Philippines.
Ford reopens China plants (11.30pm)
Ford Motor Co has resumed production at its Chinese plants, a spokesman said.
The US automaker is working with its supplier partners, some of which are located in Hubei province, to assess and plan for parts supply, according to Anderson Chan, a spokesman.
Ford was among the major automakers that halted production at China plants late last month as the government extended the traditional Lunar New Year holiday by a week.
Tesla Inc. also reopened its plant near Shanghai on Monday.
New estimate puts virus death rate at 1% (10.37pm)
The mortality rate from the coronavirus is an estimated 1%, researchers at the Imperial College London said in a new report that attempts to account for mild cases as well as more severe ones at the centre of the outbreak in China.
Researchers have been trying to estimate how severe the virus is, and to calculate how fast it spreads as well as how many people get severe illnesses or die. In China’s Hubei province, where the outbreak began, the fatality rate may be 18% for patients with severe symptoms, the researchers calculated.
“The impact of the unfolding epidemic may be comparable to the major influenza pandemics of the twentieth century,” Neil Ferguson, an infectious disease researcher at Imperial College London, said in a statement.
The researchers said the 1% mortality rate was an estimate of what will happen once all cases are counted, and after previously undiagnosed ones drive the rate down.
Any estimates ”should be viewed cautiously” given the numerous uncertainties involved, the researchers warned in in their report. Mortality rates tend to shift in the middle of an outbreak as new and milder cases are found.
The UK researchers estimated that the typical time between onset of symptoms and death has been about 22 days, meaning that there may be a multi-week time lag between reporting of cases and when deaths from those cases become apparent.
Overall, the Imperial College London researchers estimated that 1.3% of Wuhan residents were infected with the virus as of Jan 31, but only 1 in 19 of them were being tested for the virus – suggesting that the actual number of cases could be far higher than the official numbers indicate.
Toymaker: Closing may hurt holiday sales (10.15pm)
The CEO of one the world’s largest toymakers said many of its largest Chinese suppliers remain shuttered because of the coronavirus outbreak, with some pushing reopening dates back to the end of next month.
“It’s bad,” said Isaac Larian, who also founded closely held MGA Entertainment Inc. “People don’t realize. This won’t just affect the toy business; it’s going to have a major economic effect worldwide.”
While the idled factories haven’t had a major impact on MGA so far, prolonged closings could delay orders for the holiday-shopping season, according to Larian. China is by far the biggest maker of toys, with the industry’s hub in Shenzhen, and February and March is when factories do the bulk of production for Christmas goods that hit shelves beginning in late October.
UK issues tighter quarantine rules (9.55pm)
Britain imposed new regulations allowing health authorities to keep individuals in quarantine if they’re considered to be at risk of infecting others. The move came as the U.K. government called the novel coronavirus a “serious and imminent” threat to public health.
The rules apply to anyone seeking to leave isolation before a 14-day quarantine is complete and will be in place for future cases, the government said Monday. Four more patients in England tested positive for the coronavirus, bringing the total number of cases in the U.K. to eight. The country has also flown back Britons from the virus epicenter of Wuhan, China, and they’re now being held in quarantine.
China’s Xi makes public appearance (6.20pm)
Chinese President Xi Jinping made his first public appearance after the death of a doctor who became a hero for speaking out about the deadly coronavirus sparked public anger.
Xi visited the Chaoyang district in Beijing Monday afternoon “to learn about the situation of epidemic prevision and control at the grassroots level,” according to state-run media Xinhua. The agency published photos of Xi wearing a mask and having his temperature taken.
It was the first time Xi interacted with the public since a trip to Yunnan province from Jan. 19 to Jan 21, part of a tradition the country’s leaders have of touring smaller towns and cities ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday. The president was last seen in public when he met with Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen on Feb 5.
Foxconn delays return of workers to main iPhone plants (6.09pm)
Hon Hai Precision Industry Co has told some employees at its main iPhone-making unit that it’s postponing the resumption of production. Hon Hai, known also as Foxconn, sent a message via its internal app on Sunday that it wouldn’t be able to decide on a back-to-work date “until further notice” for its iDPBG business unit, according to a version reviewed by Bloomberg News. That division makes gadgets for Apple at a factory in the so-called iPhone city of Zhengzhou and two other plants in Shenzhen.
https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/18551 ... rus-update
--China death toll at 1,016, an increase of 108; confirmed cases at 42,638
--Anutin says cruise ship blocked from other ports won’t be allowed to disembark in Thailand
--China’s Hubei province has removed two health officials from their posts, according to state television, as the death toll from the coronavirus climbed above 1,000
--The dismissals in the province at the centre of the outbreak come as criticism mounts over China’s transparency and speed in handling the epidemic
--President Xi Jinping made his first public appearance after the death of a doctor who became a hero for speaking out about the deadly coronavirus sparked public anger.
Latest developments:
Singapore sees up to 30% drop in tourism (9.32am)
Singapore could see a 25% to 30% decline in tourist arrivals and spending this year because of the coronavirus outbreak, as the industry braces for a worse impact than the 2003 SARS pandemic, the city’s tourism chief said.
The city-state is losing about 18,000 to 20,000 tourists a day, and the figures could plummet further if the situation persists for longer, Keith Tan, chief executive of Singapore Tourism Board, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV.
China accounts for about 20% of Singapore’s tourism intake, the biggest source of visitors ahead of Indonesia and India. China’s ban on outbound tour groups and Singapore’s move to bar Chinese nationals from entering has led to an “evaporation” of a key source of revenue, Tan said.
China’s Hubei province removes top health officials (8.04am)
China’s Hubei province at the centre of the virus outbreak has removed health commission head Liu Yingzi and party chief Zhang Jin from their posts, state-run CCTV reported.
Criticism has mounted over China’s transparency and speed in handling the epidemic. The government’s struggle to stem the outbreak has fuelled concerns about President Xi Jinping’s efforts to centralise power since taking office, with officials pointing fingers over who’s to blame for the spread of the illness.
The death last week of a 34-year-old doctor, Li Wenliang, who was sanctioned by local authorities after warning about the disease, unleashed a torrent of grief and anger on social media.
Thailand says ship won’t be allowed to disembark (7.56am)
Passengers from a ship that has been blocked from other ports due to virus concerns won’t be given permission to disembark in Thailand, Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul said in a Facebook post.
The Westerdam cruise ship, operated by Carnival Corp’s Holland America, has been refused entry by a number of nations over fears that passengers may be carrying the coronavirus.
The ship departed Hong Kong on Feb 1 with 1,455 passengers and 802 crew. It is set to arrive at a port near Bangkok on Thursday, and checks with health authorities indicate there is “no reason to believe there are any cases of coronavirus on board the ship,” Holland America said in a statement Monday.
Elderly may be released from Japan ship: Kyodo (7.32am)
The Japanese government may allow senior citizens and people with chronic illnesses to leave the Diamond Princess cruise ship on Tuesday morning, Kyodo news reported, citing people it didn’t identify.
The number of coronavirus infections among those aboard the Carnival Corp ship quarantined off Yokohama has nearly doubled to 135, making it the biggest centre of infection of any place outside of China.
Risks are mounting that the virus could spread further in the confined spaces of the ship, where many on board have increased vulnerability due to their advanced ages.
Hong Kong public housing residents evacuated (7.30am)
More than 100 people at a public housing estate in Hong Kong were evacuated in the early hours of Tuesday after two people in the tower were confirmed to have contracted the novel coronavirus, South China Morning Post reported.
The move was precautionary after a 62-year-old woman, who lives several floors directly below a man who had earlier confirmed with the virus infection, became the 42nd cases in Hong Kong, according to the report.
China death toll at 1,016 (7.17am)
The death toll in China from the coronavirus rose to 1,016, with the addition of 108 fatalities for Feb 10, according to the National Health Commission. Hubei, the province at the centre of the outbreak, reported 103 more deaths, its highest daily count so far.
While the total confirmed cases in mainland China climbed to 42,638, Hubei reported 2,097 new infections, the smallest daily increase since Feb 1.
Most cases and deaths in China are in Hubei. Large parts of the province have been cut off from the rest of China since the government started imposing a quarantine on Jan. 23 to try and stop the spread of the virus.
Two additional deaths have occurred outside of mainland China: one in Hong Kong and the other in the Philippines.
Ford reopens China plants (11.30pm)
Ford Motor Co has resumed production at its Chinese plants, a spokesman said.
The US automaker is working with its supplier partners, some of which are located in Hubei province, to assess and plan for parts supply, according to Anderson Chan, a spokesman.
Ford was among the major automakers that halted production at China plants late last month as the government extended the traditional Lunar New Year holiday by a week.
Tesla Inc. also reopened its plant near Shanghai on Monday.
New estimate puts virus death rate at 1% (10.37pm)
The mortality rate from the coronavirus is an estimated 1%, researchers at the Imperial College London said in a new report that attempts to account for mild cases as well as more severe ones at the centre of the outbreak in China.
Researchers have been trying to estimate how severe the virus is, and to calculate how fast it spreads as well as how many people get severe illnesses or die. In China’s Hubei province, where the outbreak began, the fatality rate may be 18% for patients with severe symptoms, the researchers calculated.
“The impact of the unfolding epidemic may be comparable to the major influenza pandemics of the twentieth century,” Neil Ferguson, an infectious disease researcher at Imperial College London, said in a statement.
The researchers said the 1% mortality rate was an estimate of what will happen once all cases are counted, and after previously undiagnosed ones drive the rate down.
Any estimates ”should be viewed cautiously” given the numerous uncertainties involved, the researchers warned in in their report. Mortality rates tend to shift in the middle of an outbreak as new and milder cases are found.
The UK researchers estimated that the typical time between onset of symptoms and death has been about 22 days, meaning that there may be a multi-week time lag between reporting of cases and when deaths from those cases become apparent.
Overall, the Imperial College London researchers estimated that 1.3% of Wuhan residents were infected with the virus as of Jan 31, but only 1 in 19 of them were being tested for the virus – suggesting that the actual number of cases could be far higher than the official numbers indicate.
Toymaker: Closing may hurt holiday sales (10.15pm)
The CEO of one the world’s largest toymakers said many of its largest Chinese suppliers remain shuttered because of the coronavirus outbreak, with some pushing reopening dates back to the end of next month.
“It’s bad,” said Isaac Larian, who also founded closely held MGA Entertainment Inc. “People don’t realize. This won’t just affect the toy business; it’s going to have a major economic effect worldwide.”
While the idled factories haven’t had a major impact on MGA so far, prolonged closings could delay orders for the holiday-shopping season, according to Larian. China is by far the biggest maker of toys, with the industry’s hub in Shenzhen, and February and March is when factories do the bulk of production for Christmas goods that hit shelves beginning in late October.
UK issues tighter quarantine rules (9.55pm)
Britain imposed new regulations allowing health authorities to keep individuals in quarantine if they’re considered to be at risk of infecting others. The move came as the U.K. government called the novel coronavirus a “serious and imminent” threat to public health.
The rules apply to anyone seeking to leave isolation before a 14-day quarantine is complete and will be in place for future cases, the government said Monday. Four more patients in England tested positive for the coronavirus, bringing the total number of cases in the U.K. to eight. The country has also flown back Britons from the virus epicenter of Wuhan, China, and they’re now being held in quarantine.
China’s Xi makes public appearance (6.20pm)
Chinese President Xi Jinping made his first public appearance after the death of a doctor who became a hero for speaking out about the deadly coronavirus sparked public anger.
Xi visited the Chaoyang district in Beijing Monday afternoon “to learn about the situation of epidemic prevision and control at the grassroots level,” according to state-run media Xinhua. The agency published photos of Xi wearing a mask and having his temperature taken.
It was the first time Xi interacted with the public since a trip to Yunnan province from Jan. 19 to Jan 21, part of a tradition the country’s leaders have of touring smaller towns and cities ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday. The president was last seen in public when he met with Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen on Feb 5.
Foxconn delays return of workers to main iPhone plants (6.09pm)
Hon Hai Precision Industry Co has told some employees at its main iPhone-making unit that it’s postponing the resumption of production. Hon Hai, known also as Foxconn, sent a message via its internal app on Sunday that it wouldn’t be able to decide on a back-to-work date “until further notice” for its iDPBG business unit, according to a version reviewed by Bloomberg News. That division makes gadgets for Apple at a factory in the so-called iPhone city of Zhengzhou and two other plants in Shenzhen.
Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed. Source
Re: China Coronavirus
It sounds catastrophic but there are positives to be taken from this.
Comparing it with Spanish Flu is a bit misleading. The fatality rate then was around 20% plus that was 100 years ago. You may as well talk about the Plague (Black Death)
MERS had a fatality rate of 37% upwards.
SARS ended with a 10% fatalities.
The fatality rate for seasonal 'flu varies from year to year, as low as less than 1% up to 2 - 3% in a bad year.
Bird Flu had a much higher mortality rate than this virus.
If the 'guesstimate' proves correct at around 1% after it settles down, then it's less deadly than many viruses around today.
As with all viruses, the risk groups are the elderly and people who already have conditions. These groups have a reduced immunity and are the target of many viruses. (I know there are exceptions!)
Agreed that it is spread more quickly than past viruses, but the evidence is that it will be far less deadly than is believed. The spread is attributed by an increasing movement of people due to affordable air travel etc. Also, with the increased use of the internet, the public gets information and misinformation at the push of a button.
I'm still optimistic that it will eventually subside although it'll probably take some time.
If China had acted responsibly at the outset, it wouldn't be as bad as it is. But we'll all have to live with their mistakes.
New estimate puts virus death rate at 1% (10.37pm)
The mortality rate from the coronavirus is an estimated 1%, researchers at the Imperial College London said in a new report that attempts to account for mild cases as well as more severe ones at the centre of the outbreak in China.
In China’s Hubei province, where the outbreak began, the fatality rate may be 18% for patients with severe symptoms, the researchers calculated.
These estimates are of course mainly speculation.The researchers said the 1% mortality rate was an estimate of what will happen once all cases are counted, and after previously undiagnosed ones drive the rate down.
I guess that he's talking of the 'impact' rather than the fatality rate.“The impact of the unfolding epidemic may be comparable to the major influenza pandemics of the twentieth century,” Neil Ferguson, an infectious disease researcher at Imperial College London, said in a statement.
Comparing it with Spanish Flu is a bit misleading. The fatality rate then was around 20% plus that was 100 years ago. You may as well talk about the Plague (Black Death)
MERS had a fatality rate of 37% upwards.
SARS ended with a 10% fatalities.
The fatality rate for seasonal 'flu varies from year to year, as low as less than 1% up to 2 - 3% in a bad year.
Bird Flu had a much higher mortality rate than this virus.
If the 'guesstimate' proves correct at around 1% after it settles down, then it's less deadly than many viruses around today.
As with all viruses, the risk groups are the elderly and people who already have conditions. These groups have a reduced immunity and are the target of many viruses. (I know there are exceptions!)
Agreed that it is spread more quickly than past viruses, but the evidence is that it will be far less deadly than is believed. The spread is attributed by an increasing movement of people due to affordable air travel etc. Also, with the increased use of the internet, the public gets information and misinformation at the push of a button.
I'm still optimistic that it will eventually subside although it'll probably take some time.
If China had acted responsibly at the outset, it wouldn't be as bad as it is. But we'll all have to live with their mistakes.
Re: China Coronavirus
I am not going to post all of this, as a lot of it is just a repeat of what is already known. But there are some interesting comments:
...……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
Coronavirus, SARS and flu experts compare the differences between the diseases
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-11/ ... s/11950358
As the number of people dying from coronavirus rockets well ahead of those killed by SARS, experts say the disease's spread is now at a critical stage.
Nine weeks after the novel coronavirus was first discovered, Australian infectious disease experts are only beginning to understand its severity, how it is spread and how to contain it.
[At the moment] the Chinese authorities can't even rely on the numbers being calculated in China," Dr Mackay said. "Their hospitals have been inundated.
"And without really good numbers and data we can't be sure [of anything]."
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>more
...……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
Coronavirus, SARS and flu experts compare the differences between the diseases
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-11/ ... s/11950358
As the number of people dying from coronavirus rockets well ahead of those killed by SARS, experts say the disease's spread is now at a critical stage.
Nine weeks after the novel coronavirus was first discovered, Australian infectious disease experts are only beginning to understand its severity, how it is spread and how to contain it.
[At the moment] the Chinese authorities can't even rely on the numbers being calculated in China," Dr Mackay said. "Their hospitals have been inundated.
"And without really good numbers and data we can't be sure [of anything]."
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>more
May you be in heaven half an hour before the devil know`s you`re dead!
Re: China Coronavirus
Absolutely agree that numbers close to the epicentre are challenging to assimilate. We need to look at what happens outside of the Hubei province to get a sensible grip on how bad this is or will be.
-
pharvey
- Moderator
- Posts: 15860
- Joined: Sat Aug 29, 2009 10:21 am
- Location: Sir Fynwy - God's Country
Re: China Coronavirus
Deaths in China stand at 1,016, with 42,638 confirmed infections.
A leading virus expert has warned 60% of the word’s population may catch the virus.
Two senior officials in Hubei province were sacked over their role in combating the virus.
A leading Chinese academic has blamed President Xi Jinping for the “catastrophe” sweeping China.
Hong Kong’s chief executive asked citizens to stay at home to prevent the virus spreading.
South Korea has advised citizens not to travel to Japan, Taiwan, Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand and Singapore.
Thailand has barred passengers from Holland America’s cruise ship MS Westerdam from disembarking.
Vietnam confirmed a three-month-old baby had become the country’s 15th case.
Japanese health authorities will allow older and chronically ill passengers off the stricken Diamond Princess cruise liner amid growing concern about their health.
Taken From: - https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... -hong-kong
A leading virus expert has warned 60% of the word’s population may catch the virus.
Two senior officials in Hubei province were sacked over their role in combating the virus.
A leading Chinese academic has blamed President Xi Jinping for the “catastrophe” sweeping China.
Hong Kong’s chief executive asked citizens to stay at home to prevent the virus spreading.
South Korea has advised citizens not to travel to Japan, Taiwan, Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand and Singapore.
Thailand has barred passengers from Holland America’s cruise ship MS Westerdam from disembarking.
Vietnam confirmed a three-month-old baby had become the country’s 15th case.
Japanese health authorities will allow older and chronically ill passengers off the stricken Diamond Princess cruise liner amid growing concern about their health.
Taken From: - https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... -hong-kong
"Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things" - Yma o Hyd.
Re: China Coronavirus
38,043 are currently infected of which 7,345 are serious/critical (19%) leaving 81% being mild cases.
5,061 cases closed of which 1018 have died and 4,043 recovered. (20%/80% respectively)
60% of the world population 'may' catch it, I think is a little overstated. That equates to 4 and a half BILLION people!!
5,061 cases closed of which 1018 have died and 4,043 recovered. (20%/80% respectively)
60% of the world population 'may' catch it, I think is a little overstated. That equates to 4 and a half BILLION people!!
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pharvey
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Re: China Coronavirus
Have to agree with you there.
"Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things" - Yma o Hyd.
Re: China Coronavirus
Those graphs are all well and good but they don't breakdown the numbers. Those recovered, severe/critical cases against mild cases. As I've said before, you have to weigh the negatives against the positives.
Currently, we seem to only get the negatives which leads to a false negative and fueling panic and even hysteria. You have to balance these figures.
The report stating that the UK authorities said that the situation was a 'serious and imminent threat' to public health. That's the message everyone read but not the reason for the statement. It was to establish new powers and was triggered by someone threatening to leave the quarantine facility. Those powers were needed to force people to be sensible.
Currently, we seem to only get the negatives which leads to a false negative and fueling panic and even hysteria. You have to balance these figures.
The report stating that the UK authorities said that the situation was a 'serious and imminent threat' to public health. That's the message everyone read but not the reason for the statement. It was to establish new powers and was triggered by someone threatening to leave the quarantine facility. Those powers were needed to force people to be sensible.
Re: China Coronavirus
"If China had acted responsibly at the outset, it wouldn't be as bad as it is. But we'll all have to live with their mistakes"......for how long????
Until they fcuk it up royally and kill us all.
They've had 2 mishaps so far, and tried to conceal both events.
A good article in the guardian newspaper that was posted on this thread suggested the international community should perhaps take this more seriously.
Unfortunately the Chinese cannot be trusted to tell the truth and need to be monitored more closely.
Until they fcuk it up royally and kill us all.
They've had 2 mishaps so far, and tried to conceal both events.
A good article in the guardian newspaper that was posted on this thread suggested the international community should perhaps take this more seriously.
Unfortunately the Chinese cannot be trusted to tell the truth and need to be monitored more closely.