Temporary sub-forum for all news, updates, developments and discussion on Coronavirus/Covid-19 in Hua Hin, Thailand and globally. Any and all topics on the outbreak will be moved into this forum for ease of information access.
I'm not sure there's anything 'we' can do. It's an authoritarian society with procedures and rules that go against ours and consequently we don't understand their's.
There's an interesting interview at the link below. It does highlight the 'level up' protocol in China that obviously fails in a situation like this. Doesn't alter any of the facts but does give an insight to how that society works. It's quite a long read.
To answer those questions, I called up Yanzhong Huang, a China expert. Now a senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations, Huang has studied China’s response to SARS and has written extensively on public health in China and the government’s ability to detect disease outbreaks, including in his book Governing Health in Contemporary China. He shared his views on the “smoking gun” evidence that local health officials in Wuhan — the epicenter of the outbreak — downplayed the severity of the new coronavirus, why China’s disease surveillance system failed, and his concerns about the consequences of a mass quarantine.
Somewhat worrying - and quite believable, even if it is reported in the Daily Mail.
"A map showing just how the coronavirus could have been spread from the epicenter Wuhan has been compiled by researchers as the outbreak is revealed to have killed more 1,000 people the world over, according to data form the Chinese government released Monday evening.
A total of 103 people died in a single day in China's Hubei province on Monday - the highest toll recorded in any one 24-hour period since the outbreak began in December.
It comes the same day as World Health Organization (WHO) experts and scientists have finally arrived in China to help officials there contain and study the outbreak which has now struck at least 42,729 people worldwide.
A map created by Southampton University researchers shows how 60,000 out of a total of five million people who have traveled out of Wuhan since the beginning of the outbreak and before the city was fully locked down have crisscrossed the globe.
Researchers used a combination cell phone tracking data and flight trackers to trace travelers paths.
The result is a red scribble of trajectories to 382 cities elsewhere in China and in countries the world over."
Sorry - Can't add the map at a decent enough size to view - see link.
That map does look scary. However you could probably take movement from/to any city in the world and get a similar map but emanating from different positions. You only have to pan out from any flight tracker software to get a number of similar pictures at any time of the day.
You could probably even change the data movement itself and get similar charts. 'The movement of people wearing red', 'people travelling alone or not', 'movement of cargo'. See what I'm getting at?
Plus, from the report "Southampton University researchers shows how 60,000 out of some 60,000 people What does that mean?
Allbeit that it was 'The Mail', they do make some good points.
I noticed that in the pictures of Xi's visit, they were all wearing the 'next to useless' pleated surgical masks!
HHTel wrote: ↑Tue Feb 11, 2020 11:04 pm
Plus, from the report "Southampton University researchers shows how 60,000 out of some 60,000 people What does that mean?
Without reopening the report, I'm pretty sure it said 60,000 of some 5 million people (who have left Wuhan since the outbreak).
You're correct. That was what it said in the main body of the report. The quote I made was the caption under the map:
A map based on data from flight and cell phone data tracking by Southampton University researchers shows how 60,000 out of some 60,000 people who left Wuhan after the coronavirus outbreak began but before the city was locked down have crisscrossed the globe
I didn't spot it in the main body but caught my attention as I was looking at the 'pictures'.
This is still a very under-diagnosed and under-reported disease. Some people will have fairly mild symptoms who may not be reported whereas a proper influenza illness can last a number of weeks so there is not yet an ‘outcome’. My understanding, based on what I’ve read and heard is that unless you are immunocompromised or have a very high dose (generally quantity or duration) it’s not such a terrible illness and you will recover fully. Calculating a fatality rate based only on a known outcome, when infection is in the exponential growth phase, and there has only been a very small number of binary events, is not going to be terribly helpful. The estimates are that it will have a fatality rate of around 1% but the concern is that we haven’t seen it before and there’s zero immunity in the population meaning that anywhere between 60-80% of us could get it.
But that’s stats for you.
"A man who does not think for himself, does not think at all." Wilde
Oh yeh. A particular 'expert' predicts that 60% of the world could become infected. That's 4.5 BILLION!
Wuhan which is the epicentre has a case infection of around 3% of the population and 'predicted' to peak at around 5%.
It's generally agreed that there are many more infections than are reported due to very mild symptoms or no symptoms at all. Singapore have said that if the infections 'baloon' then it becomes futile to track contacts and hospitalise infected people. If it comes to that then their advice will be NOT to come to hospital unless you are seriously ill. See your GP if necessary and stay home.
To date, seasonal 'flu is much more 'deadly'. It mutates every year causing the 'flu shot' to be modified twice annually but still only gives up to 60% protection. 'Flu usually lasts from a few days up to a couple of weeks. Recovering from it can last for longer but that means recovering from the effects of the 'flu virus, not the virus itself.
Wuhan and district has a population of 12 million. A reasonable annual death rate in normal times would be about 8.5/1000/year. or 100,000year or 2000/week. And yet we are told that the disposal of bodies sservices were overwhelmed with the deaths even when they were announcing less than 50/day in wuhan. Makes you wonder. (Check my math)
One more case identified in Thailand. A Chinese woman from Wuhan who was already in quarantine. Total now 33 of which 10 have been discharged leaving 23 still in hospital.
Start of another day in the 'End of the World' saga. Figures updated at 07:51 Thai time today:
45,057 confirmed cases ( up 1,956)
Deaths: 1,115 (up 97)
4,601 recovered. (up 558)
Currently infected: 39,341 (up 1,301)
Mild cases 31,099 (79% of currently infected)
Serious or critical: 8,242 (21% of currently infected)
Recovered or died: 5,716
Recovered/discharged: 4,601 (80% of the total with outcome)
Died 1,115 (20% of cases with an outcome) Keep an eye on this percentage.
HHTel wrote:Start of another day in the 'End of the World' saga. Figures updated at 07:51 Thai time today:
45,057 confirmed cases ( up 1,956)
Deaths: 1,115 (up 97)
4,601 recovered. (up 558)
Currently infected: 39,341 (up 1,301)
Mild cases 31,099 (79% of currently infected)
Serious or critical: 8,242 (21% of currently infected)
Recovered or died: 5,716
Recovered/discharged: 4,601 (80% of the total with outcome)
Died 1,115 (20% of cases with an outcome) Keep an eye on this percentage.
I appreciate where 20%comes from maths wise
But Why are you taking the no of death as a % of the 5716 figure and not the the total cases(45057)?
