Covid-19 News & Updates

[Suua]

If this was here in Thailand I'd believe it, but in the UK that's incredible.

Are we witnessing some form of mass hypnosis?

What's the bet this started off as some bizarre April Fool joke that's got way out of hand.

Just beyond me that not only do some people in the UK truly believe this BS, but would actually act upon those beliefs in such a destructive manner.

Why oh why do some resort to violence/destruction of their own country out of fear/frustration. The "Muppet Brigade" strike again!

I would imagine it's people venting their anger against any Chinese infrastructure.....I hope the UK government do a sharp U turn in their agreement with Huawei and anything else Chinese. The world needs to take action against the Chinese authorities and start moving their business elsewhere.....India would get my vote....just as many people, so shouldn't be too much of a problem in finding workers. China has caused global chaos TWICE IN THE LAST 17 YEARS, AND LIED ABOUT IT TWICE.....they cannot be trusted. Time for the world to move on to new and brighter pastures.

[dtaai-maai]

I would imagine it's people venting their anger against any Chinese infrastructure...

A nice thought, but I think you do people way too much credit.

[sateeb]

Thailand confirms 102 new cases of coronavirus; 3 more fatalities
Cod Satrusayang
By
Cod Satrusayang
April 5, 2020
The Thai government confirmed 102 cases of coronavirus on Sunday bringing the total number of patients to 2,169.

The number of fatalities also rose by 3, bringing the total number of dead to 23.

62 more patients have recovered, which brings the total number of recovered patients to 674.

Thai airports have been shut down by the government until Monday morning stranding Thai passengers around the world. (Read one account here)

“We have to apologize to Thais that are stranded abroad due to the new measures,” said government spokesman Dr Thaweesin Visanuyothin, “But if 200 people come back per day, that is 1,000 people in 5 days. We have to prepare for your arrival. You are our brothers and relatives and every one of you is important.”

Airport escapees

The Thai government said it has rounded up all Thai citizens that left the airport and skipped government-mandated quarantine on Friday.

Those that escaped government quarantine said that government regulations were unclear prior to their arrival and they were forced to wait for hours before being told to go into lockdown.

The government said that people who had returned home risked infecting their loved ones and spreading the disease even further. Ministry of Public Health officials called the action ‘irresponsible.’

Worldwide numbers climb
The number of people infected by the coronavirus continues to climb around the world with 1.2 million infected as of Sunday. The United States continues to be the epicenter of the disease, with President Donald Trump asking the American public for a “tough” two week period.

Spain has also surpassed Italy’s infected total to be the country with the second most number of infections.

In South East Asia, Indonesia has passed Thailand to be the country with the third most number of infections behind only Malaysia and the Philippines.

Working on a cure

As coronavirus cases soared past the 1.2 million infected mark, scientists and researchers around the world are scrambling to come up with a viable vaccine that can fight back against the disease.

https://www.thaienquirer.com/10626/thai ... atalities/

Up on yesterdays figures, expect more curfew regs. soon. (Opinion only)

[lindosfan1]

A very good article from the spectator.

Every day, now, we are seeing figures for ‘Covid deaths’. These numbers are often expressed on graphs showing an exponential rise. But care must be taken when reading (and reporting) these figures. Given the extraordinary response to the emergence of this virus, it’s vital to have a clear-eyed view of its progress and what the figures mean. The world of disease reporting has its own dynamics, ones that are worth understanding. How accurate, or comparable, are these figures comparing Covid-19 deaths in various countries?

We often see a ratio expressed: deaths, as a proportion of cases. The figure is taken as a sign of how lethal Covid-19 is, but the ratios vary wildly. In the US, 1.8 per cent (2,191 deaths in 124,686 confirmed cases), Italy 10.8 per cent, Spain 8.2 per cent, Germany 0.8 per cent, France 6.1 per cent, UK 6.0 per cent. A fifteen-fold difference in death rate for the same disease seems odd amongst such similar countries: all developed, all with good healthcare systems. All tackling the same disease.

You might think it would be easy to calculate death rates. Death is a stark and easy-to-measure end point. In my working life (I’m a retired pathology professor) I usually come across studies that express it comparably and as a ratio: the number of deaths in a given period of time in an area, divided by that area’s population. For example, 10 deaths per 1,000 population per year. So just three numbers:

The population who have contracted the disease
The number dying of disease
The relevant time period

The trouble is that in the Covid-19 crisis each one of these numbers is unclear.

1. Why the figures for Covid-19 infections are a vast underestimate


Say there was a disease that always caused a large purple spot to appear in the middle of your forehead after two days – it would be easy to measure. Any doctor could diagnose this, and national figures would be reliable. Now, consider a disease that causes a variable raised temperature and cough over a period of 5 to 14 days, as well as variable respiratory symptoms ranging from hardly anything to severe respiratory compromise. There will be a range of symptoms and signs in patients affected by this disease; widely overlapping with similar effects caused by many other infectious diseases. Is it Covid-19, seasonal flu, a cold – or something else? It will be impossible to tell by clinical examination.

The only way to identify people who definitely have the disease will be by using a lab test that is both specific for the disease (detects this disease only, and not similar diseases) and sensitive for the disease (picks up a large proportion of people with this disease, whether severe or mild). Developing accurate, reliable, validated tests is difficult and takes time. At the moment, we have to take it on trust that the tests in use are measuring what we think they are.

So far in this pandemic, test kits have mainly been reserved for hospitalised patients with significant symptoms. Few tests have been carried out in patients with mild symptoms. This means that the number of positive tests will be far lower than the number of people who have had the disease. Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, has been trying to stress this. He suggested that the real figure for the number of cases could be 10 to 20 times higher than the official figure. If he’s right, the headline death rate due to this virus (all derived from lab tests) will be 10 to 20 times lower than it appears to be from the published figures. The more the number of untested cases goes up, the lower the true death rate.

2. Why Covid-19 deaths are a substantial over-estimate
Next, what about the deaths? Many UK health spokespersons have been careful to repeatedly say that the numbers quoted in the UK indicate death with the virus, not death due to the virus – this matters. When giving evidence in parliament a few days ago, Prof. Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London said that he now expects fewer than 20,000 Covid-19 deaths in the UK but, importantly, two-thirds of these people would have died anyway. In other words, he suggests that the crude figure for ‘Covid deaths’ is three times higher than the number who have actually been killed by Covid-19. (Even the two-thirds figure is an estimate – it would not surprise me if the real proportion is higher.)

This nuance is crucial ­– not just in understanding the disease, but for understanding the burden it might place on the health service in coming days. Unfortunately nuance tends to be lost in the numbers quoted from the database being used to track Covid-19: the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center. It has compiled a huge database, with Covid-19 data from all over the world, updated daily – and its figures are used, world over, to track the virus. This data is not standardised and so probably not comparable, yet this important caveat is seldom expressed by the (many) graphs we see. It risks exaggerating the quality of data that we have.

The distinction between dying ‘with’ Covid-19 and dying ‘due to’ Covid-19 is not just splitting hairs. Consider some examples: an 87-year-old woman with dementia in a nursing home; a 79-year-old man with metastatic bladder cancer; a 29-year-old man with leukaemia treated with chemotherapy; a 46-year-old woman with motor neurone disease for 2 years. All develop chest infections and die. All test positive for Covid-19. Yet all were vulnerable to death by chest infection from any infective cause (including the flu). Covid-19 might have been the final straw, but it has not caused their deaths. Consider two more cases: a 75-year-old man with mild heart failure and bronchitis; a 35-year-old woman who was previously fit and well with no known medical conditions. Both contract a chest infection and die, and both test positive for Covid-19. In the first case it is not entirely clear what weight to place on the pre-existing conditions versus the viral infection – to make this judgement would require an expert clinician to examine the case notes. The final case would reasonably be attributed to death caused by Covid-19, assuming it was true that there were no underlying conditions.

It should be noted that there is no international standard method for attributing or recording causes of death. Also, normally, most respiratory deaths never have a specific infective cause recorded, whereas at the moment one can expect all positive Covid-19 results associated with a death to be recorded. Again, this is not splitting hairs. Imagine a population where more and more of us have already had Covid-19, and where every ill and dying patient is tested for the virus. The deaths apparently due to Covid-19, the Covid trajectory, will approach the overall death rate. It would appear that all deaths were caused by Covid-19 – would this be true? No. The severity of the epidemic would be indicated by how many extra deaths (above normal) there were overall.

3. Covid-19 and a time period

Finally, what about the time period? In a fast-moving scenario such as the Covid-19 crisis, the daily figures present just a snapshot. If people take quite a long time to die of a disease, it will take a while to judge the real death rate and initial figures will be an underestimate. But if people die quite quickly of the disease, the figures will be nearer the true rate. It is probable that there is a slight lag – those dying today might have been seriously ill for some days. But as time goes by this will become less important as a steady state is reached.

Let me finish with a couple of examples. Colleagues in Germany feel sure that their numbers are nearer the truth than most, because they had plenty of testing capacity ready when the pandemic struck. Currently the death rate is 0.8 per cent in Germany. If we assume that about one third of the recorded deaths are due to Covid-19 and that they have managed to test a third of all cases in the country who actually have the disease (a generous assumption), then the death rate for Covid-19 would be 0.08 per cent. That might go up slightly, as a result of death lag. If we assume at present that this effect might be 25 per cent (which seems generous), that would give an overall, and probably upper limit, of death rate of 0.1 per cent, which is similar to seasonal flu.

Let’s look at the UK numbers. As of 9 a.m. on Saturday there were 1,019 deaths and 17,089 confirmed cases – a death rate of 6.0 per cent. If one third of the deaths are caused by Covid-19 and the number of cases is underestimated by a factor of say 15, the death rate would be 0.13 per cent and the number of deaths due to Covid-19 would be 340. This number should be placed in perspective with the number of deaths we would normally expect in the first 28 days of March – roughly 46,000.


The number of recorded deaths will increase in the coming days, but so will the population affected by the disease – in all probability much faster than the increase in deaths. Because we are looking so closely at the presence of Covid-19 in those who die – as I look at in more detail in my article in the current issue of The Spectator – the fraction of those who die with Covid-19 (but not of it) in a population where the incidence is increasing, is likely to increase even more. So the measured increase in numbers of deaths is not necessarily a cause for alarm, unless it demonstrates excess deaths – 340 deaths out of 46,000 shows we are not near this at present. We have prepared for the worst, but it has not yet happened. The widespread testing of NHS staff recently announced may help provide a clearer indication of how far the disease has already spread within the population.

The UK and other governments have no control over how their data is reported, but they can minimise the potential for misinterpretation by making absolutely clear what its figures are, and what they are not. After this episode is over, there is a clear need for an internationally coordinated update of how deaths are attributed and recorded, to enable us to better understand what is happening more clearly, when we need to.

John Lee is a recently retired professor of pathology and a former NHS consultant pathologist.

[dtaai-maai]

A good article, yes, but it doesn't say much that an intelligent layman couldn't have worked out for themselves.

Say there was a disease that always caused a large purple spot to appear in the middle of your forehead after two days – it would be easy to measure. Any doctor could diagnose this, and national figures would be reliable. Now, consider a disease that causes a variable raised temperature and cough over a period of 5 to 14 days, as well as variable respiratory symptoms ranging from hardly anything to severe respiratory compromise. There will be a range of symptoms and signs in patients affected by this disease; widely overlapping with similar effects caused by many other infectious diseases. Is it Covid-19, seasonal flu, a cold – or something else? It will be impossible to tell by clinical examination.

[...]
This means that the number of positive tests will be far lower than the number of people who have had the disease. Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, has been trying to stress this. He suggested that the real figure for the number of cases could be 10 to 20 times higher than the official figure. If he’s right, the headline death rate due to this virus (all derived from lab tests) will be 10 to 20 times lower than it appears to be from the published figures. The more the number of untested cases goes up, the lower the true death rate.

[...]
Many UK health spokespersons have been careful to repeatedly say that the numbers quoted in the UK indicate death with the virus, not death due to the virus – this matters.

[...]
The distinction between dying ‘with’ Covid-19 and dying ‘due to’ Covid-19 is not just splitting hairs.

[...]
The severity of the epidemic would be indicated by how many extra deaths (above normal) there were overall.

[...]
Let’s look at the UK numbers. As of 9 a.m. on Saturday there were 1,019 deaths and 17,089 confirmed cases – a death rate of 6.0 per cent. If one third of the deaths are caused by Covid-19 and the number of cases is underestimated by a factor of say 15, the death rate would be 0.13 per cent and the number of deaths due to Covid-19 would be 340. This number should be placed in perspective with the number of deaths we would normally expect in the first 28 days of March – roughly 46,000.

[...]
After this episode is over, there is a clear need for an internationally coordinated update of how deaths are attributed and recorded, to enable us to better understand what is happening more clearly, when we need to.

[handdrummer]

The chilling thing about the whole Covid-19 reporting is that it's all numbers. When someone you know, or love, dies, they are not a number and many people can be affected by their death. The reporting is very clinical and seems, at times, to be inhuman.

[HHTel]

Tell Trump that. He only ever refers to numbers. No condolences for the families who've lost loved ones!

[pharvey]

^ Yes, an extremely sad situation - unfortunately the reporting signifies the severity of the crisis....

And yet these low IQ, ignorant Muppets are still putting lives at risk.....

"One of London's most popular parks will be shut from tomorrow after thousands of sun worshippers breached Government lockdown rules.
Brockwell Park in south London saw more than 3,000 visitors over the course of Saturday, "many of them sunbathing or in large groups," Lambeth council said.
The council announced the news on Twitter, describing the revellers' behaviour as "unacceptable."
It tweeted: “Despite clear advice, over 3000 people spent today in Brockwell Park, many of them sunbathing or in large groups.
"This is unacceptable. Unfortunately, the actions of a minority now means that, following police advice, Brockwell Park will be closed tomorrow. #StayHome.""

[pharvey]

And this, far more arrogance than ignorance. If she can't even heed her own advice or show good judgment on a personal level, how can she possibly be trusted in a position of such authority

There was also a very valid question IMHO by a reporter on the BBC news this afternoon, asking Nicola Sturgeon (First Minister) how could she possibly not be aware of her Chief Medical Officer's whereabouts during this crisis - Sturgeon responded that she was only made aware after being contacted by the "Scottish Sun" on Saturday evening (B*LL*CKS IMO)!

Coronavirus: Police Warning Over Calderwood's Second Home Visit

"Police have issued a warning to Scotland's chief medical officer for visiting her second home in Fife during the coronavirus lockdown.
Dr Catherine Calderwood is facing mounting criticism after pictures of her family trip to Earlsferry were published in The Scottish Sun.
She apologised "unreservedly" and said she would continue to focus on her job.
There have been calls for her to step down over the matter with MSPs describing her position as "untenable"."

[EDIT] Full Story: - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52171694

[dtaai-maai]

^ Yes, an extremely sad situation - unfortunately the reporting signifies the severity of the crisis....

And yet these low IQ, ignorant Muppets are still putting lives at risk.....

"One of London's most popular parks will be shut from tomorrow after thousands of sun worshippers breached Government lockdown rules.
Brockwell Park in south London saw more than 3,000 visitors over the course of Saturday, "many of them sunbathing or in large groups," Lambeth council said.
The council announced the news on Twitter, describing the revellers' behaviour as "unacceptable."
It tweeted: “Despite clear advice, over 3000 people spent today in Brockwell Park, many of them sunbathing or in large groups.
"This is unacceptable. Unfortunately, the actions of a minority now means that, following police advice, Brockwell Park will be closed tomorrow. #StayHome.""

Wankers.jpeg (57.7 KiB) Viewed 507 times

[pharvey]

^ Oh yes - I'm certainly game..... Although my neighbours may get distressed if I don't warn them beforehand, thinking perhaps I'm referring to them!!

[pharvey]

Mods - I look at this as the best place to post, but if need be, please move. Possibly to China Thread.

And so it begins..... The route cause of the Pandemic and then they hold the world to ransom. The international community MUST hold them (the Chinese government) accountable and put China in their place. If things then become difficult for the Chinese people, it's then that they will go against their own government and things may change for the better..... let's hope, but we must help and stop putting our collective heads in the sand purely for "trade deals"!

We should not hold the Chinese people to account (the LHG is Chinese), but rather the government and "big business" - that likely to include US, UK & European companies, who (if proven) should also be brought to account.

This will certainly not stop at face masks/respirators etc.

Market or Chinese-made Masks is a Madhouse, Says Broker

Manufacturers making huge profits supplying to whoever can pay the most and pay fastest.

The scramble for face masks has created a “madhouse” atmosphere among Chinese manufacturers, who are making huge profits as customers around the world fight to be the first in line.
Producers of masks and respirators are demanding to be paid in full before the products leave their factories and are supplying whoever can pay the most and pay fastest, according to Michael Crotty, a textile broker based in Shanghai.
Crotty, of Golden Pacific Fashion and Design, said he had spent all of Sunday dealing with a flood of new enquiries from US states, national governments, cities, hospitals, distributors and private companies seeking to protect their employees.
“It’s just a madhouse,” he said. “Money talks. The factory knows one thing: what’s in my bank account and when did it get there? And if it gets there before the other guy then that’s who is going to get the production time.”

Factories that have quickly changed their production lines to make masks are demanding 50% payment when an order is made and the other 50% before the masks leave the factory. With scams proliferating, those are often unacceptable terms to many buyers, especially those spending taxpayers’ money.

“The factory doesn’t care,” Crotty said. “They’re getting orders from people they’ve never heard of before. It’s a really unusual circumstance to have these factories absolutely in the driver’s seat. And they’re in the driving seat not of a Volkswagen but of a Mercedes limousine.”

Wearing masks has long been common in parts of Asia to combat air pollution and the spread of disease, but until now was rare in Europe and the US.

Full Article: - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... ays-broker

[pharvey]

UK PM Admitted to Hospital

"The UK prime minister Boris Johnson has been admitted to hospital for tests, 10 days after testing positive for the coronavirus.
A Downing Street spokeswoman said: “On the advice of his doctor, the Prime Minister has tonight been admitted to hospital for tests.
“This is a precautionary step, as the Prime Minister continues to have persistent symptoms of coronavirus 10 days after testing positive for the virus.
“The Prime Minister thanks NHS staff for all of their incredible hard work and urges the public to continue to follow the Government’s advice to stay at home, protect the NHS and save lives.”"

Update at: -

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... t-of-death

[PeteC]

Worldwide Update (5 April)

https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/18935 ... rus-update

[pharvey]

Useful information (NOT "fake news") from the CDC - worth keeping in mind, for those in Europe & US especially so.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... rings.html