Is Thailand a political timebomb?

[lomuamart]

Would someone be kind enough to explain to me what is going on with the visa situation.
My friend asked me the other day expecting that I would know the answer for her dad, but I have not got a clue what the visa status is right now.
So any info would be helpful. This is what she has told me. He was on a yearly visa and then was told he was just getting a renewal for a month for no reason and now he has had his UK passport taken from him while the visa is being reviewed…
sorry if that does not give you much to go on, this is all the info I have and I have no idea what it means, gut instinct the poo is going to hit the fan and he will be sent home unless he marries his Thai girlfriend. he has money in his bank but no job, over 65 years old...

Not really the right section for the question, but nevertheless.
As you say there's not a lot of information. Did he have a year's visa or an year's extension to a visa? If the former, then it was probably a multiple entry Non Imm visa.
If the latter then I'd assume that the extension must have been granted on the basis of retirement (you say he's over 50, has money in the bank, isn't married to a Thai and isn't working). If he's appylying for another year's extension, it is possible that imm will give him a month's "under consideration" stamp whilst they make a decision. But to take the passport is extremely unusual - after all, legally you're supposed to have your passport with you at all times in Thailand.
Admin, or other mods. Maybe you can move this post to the visa section? If I try to do it, it'll probably get lost!
Why should he be sent home? Was he on overstay?

[Guess]

Please read the OP again. You'll find most of the statements could NOT have been made before the Thaksin regime!

OK I should have said MOST of the statements. I have added my comments below in red. Buksida has already replied stating an opinion that is in line with mine.

This government are showing every indication they want to stay put.

I think any body of people handed power would want to stay anywhere in the world

They are now talking about having an appointed leader, with elections only for ministerial posts! The marches in Issan for democracy are the first signs of open unrest. Freedom of speech has already been taken away.

I have not heard of marches taking place but rallies have been help in Udon Thani, Buri Ram and now Korat. I have seen TV coverage that backs it up. No sign of military intervention or silencing the freedom of speech.


People are frightened to speak up. Issan was a Thaksin stronghold. Most Thais want Thaksin back. He was, after all, their democratically elected leader. Any other civilized country would have used the courts to decide if Thaksin had committed any wrong doing - without resorting to putting tanks in the streets. So far there has been no conclusive evidence Thaksin did anything wrong![/quote]

Again no evidence has come my way from a variety of sources including local Hua Hin business families, military personnel and the local police. If anything they are more open now. In the west a new election would be called and the case would not be referred to the courts. Bush and Gore went to court in a dispute about vote counting not wrong doing accusations. My understanding is that the Tanks in the streets of Bangkok were ordered to mobilize to protect public and civil buildings in case of a counter coup by Thaksin and his police supporters. The yellow arm bands and flags made it very clear to the Thai people that the tanks were there at the request of the current leader of the country who was the King.
As for no proof against Thaksin doing wrong then maybe they should take a tip from their US allies and call in the IRS.


I am sorry Jockey, to rip your post to shreds but the truth is that none of us really know the true situation so I always give the benefit of doubt and I believe that reactionary statements do absolutely nothing to help but give Thaksin and the TRT more ammunition for a return which I believe the vast majority of Thais do not want unless it becomes the lesser of two evils. So far that is not the case.

BTW the problems in the South have been escalating ever since 9/11 and 10/12. In addition to that some of the terrorist activity last year almost certainly did not come from the Muslim extremists. Firstly they made no claim and secondly the MO was completely different from anything done before. I believe the bombing of Had Yai and Bangkok and the car found in Bangkok full of bomb making equioment was the work of an organized group but almost certainly not Islam.

[redzonerocker]

a lot of uncertainty surrounding this subject.
having lived, worked & visited several countries under military control or with extremist regimes in charge i think thailand is very liberal.
i saw no visible signs of oppression or uprising in my short visit & there is a clear freedom of movement.the thais seem generally happy with things in general.as in all politically sensitive issues there is always a danger of complacency.
with the world in such an unstable state at present i suppose anything is possible.
personally i don't think it would come to tanks in the streets & confrontation on any large scale.
being now the 2nd largest exporter of goods in asia, foreign investment continually rising, tourism ever increasing, it would be foolish to change to much, to quickly.

[lomuamart]

No oppresssion - excuse me, loads of people killed for their religion.
Uprising - give me a break. Thousands dead in Pattani, Yala and Sungai Kolok.
Of course there is freedom of movement. It's just a case of whether you want to chance it.
As for the tanks etc, let's see whether they have gone by this December?
BTW, are the Thais happy?

[STEVE G]

One big problem that the administration has now is that by staging the coup whilst Thaksin was out of the country, whilst it made it easier in the first place, it leaves things unfinished. Traditionally at this stage in a coup the depossed leader is either in jail, dead or pensioned of into exile, not floating around in the background with huge personal wealth, to stage a comeback if he is so inclined. This situation has created a tremendous amount of fence sitting, and a general lack of impetuous, which will lead to stagnation if things are not sorted out soon.

[The understudy]

I find it reallz interesting that the interi Government is waiting unitl December to hold elections
The whole Country is in a state of stagnation, Everything seems to be allright for now on the surface but under the surface there's growing fustration that nothing is moving forward polocies are unclear and so on!
If anything happens during the next few month in Thailand be sure that me and a flood of other foreign Correspondents going to be there to or are allready there to cover the happennigs and it's outfall!

[sargeant]

I agree steve but the biggest problem they have is that so far they have not been able to lay a glove on Mr T which forgive me for saying so but i did warn on another thread that this was a real probability in my earliest ever posts (dont accuse without evidence)
If TRT did win the December elections what happens if they say welcome back Mr T, and i will disagree with guess my take is going by consistant polls in the thai language papers the 60% behind him are still there weird i know but this is thailand
We have loosing face playing in every corner here and god knows how it will play out

[redzonerocker]

lomuamart, when i say oppression & freedom of movement i'm talking about my own experience in thailand be it only a short time.
i travelled approx 10,000 km around thailand & can't recall seeing a tank or any visible military presence & certainly did not have my movements restricted in any way. not once did i feel unsafe or threatened in any way & everywhere i visited i found the thais extremely friendly.
are the thais happy? for such a poor race of people i would say yes. they manage to keep smiling despite their lack of wealth & they certainly know how to make the best of things.something we should learn from in the pampered nanny states of the western world.
yes, in the south they have serious problems which i would admit i don't know to much about. but religious problems are a worldwide dilemma these days.it just seems funny that one particular religion seems to be involved in most, if not all of the uprisings & civil unrest throughout the world.

[PeteC]

SMS news alert on my cell this afternoon stated that an independent poll taken by Dusit Inc., has shown that 44% of Thai's don't even know there will be a referendum on the draft constitution.

This tells me that about half the country doesn't care about these things one way or the other.

I think they have "played the cards they're dealt" for so long, life simply goes on day to day and they try to be as happy as possible. I hope so at least. Pete

[STEVE G]

Yes Pete, the average Thai rice farmer holds a bit of interest in the main elections, but they don't follow the political news that closely. I have to say that in the bit of Buriram I stay in, Thaksin still has a lot of support, mainly due to his policies of putting minimum prices on certain agricultural produce. Lets be honest; if you are a poor farmer, not much else matters to you on the political front,

[The understudy]

Hi there y'all in Hua Hin and Beyond!!!

Here's some News I snatched up in the Bangkokpost online Edition.

Poll: Intensified Thai political crisis looming


Thailand is re-entering a period of political crisis, Abac Poll director Noppadol Kannikar warned Sunday.

He said the interim government and the Council for National Security should urgently attend to improving the economy and address the concerns widely stated by all sectors of society.

In a rare extended analysis, the head of the respected Assumption University warned both the CNS and Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont that time is running out and that the public perceives the country as being in deep crisis.

Mr Noppadol said no positive factor was seen in the country now and the people's patience and good-will was wearing thin in regard to those in power.

The interim government was installed by the CNS after it carried out a widely welcomed coup d'etat overthrowing the elected government of then prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra last September 19.

The government and the military council should urgently implement improvements in Thailand's sluggish economy, resolve their differences and carry out the work desired by people, and create a better understanding with the groups or factions that formerly supported them.

Solving the problems would require both the government and the CNS to eradicate corruption among politicians and state officials help the people to earn more money to cope with rising inflation, and improving the community environment.

His remarks were based on results of a survey conducted by ABAC among 4,525 people nationwide between May 10-19.

According to the ABAC survey, 42.9 per cent of the respondents agreed that the country's economy was deteriorating and 37.7 per cent said the economy remained as bad as before.

Over two-thirds of respondents – 67 per cent – said their income and spending were at low level. (TNA)

what do y'all think of this News!!!
The Patience of Thai's running thin... do you believe this?

[Mack111]

the Thai's that i no all want Mr T back.

all be it none of them are really that bothered about it but they think he was doing good for the country

[Winkie]

None of the Thais that I know want him back, but they also don't know who they want in power!

Actually, my maid wants Thaksin back

[buksida]

None of the Thais that I know want him back, but they also don't know who they want in power!

I can say the same as this, most Thais I know still hate Thaksin for the vast quantities of money he essentially stole from the country, he is now splashing it around overseas trying to buy football clubs.

The trouble is now with the junta stifling all forms of media and mass communication is that the Thais will never know what their political options are when it comes to vote - this is why there will probably be another military elected leader, if there is an election at all.

[jayjayjay]

Banning an entire political party can not be good????

Surely just remove the people at the top who caused the problem??

Can you imagine banning the labour party just because Tony Blair took the uk to war illegally?

JJJ