Asian currencies are likely to strengthen to the same levels they occupied before the economic crisis of a decade ago, according to a top securities executive.
Named after Thailand's shrimp soup,the so-called "tom yam kung disease" of 1997 sent the value of currencies plummeting, starting with the baht, which halved in value almost overnight.
Asia Plus Securities president Kongkiate Opaswongkarn said the US dollar is expected to continue weakening as the result of the ongoing economic slowdown in the United States.
The demand for new homes in the US housing futures market dropped by 15 per cent in the wake of the sub-prime lending woes.
Mr. Kongkiate, who is chairman of the Federation of Thai Capital Market Organisation, said investors would shift to invest in non-dollar assets when the greenback had appreciated, and that most would opt to invest in Asia because it could offer the most attractive returns.
Because of this, it is projected Asian currencies will strengthen to the same level as they were before the economic crisis took place in Thailand in 1997. Before then, the Thai baht has consistently remained at around 25 to the US dollar.
Under the circumstances, Mr Kongkiate said, all parties, particularly exporters, must adjust to the situation.
With a stronger currency, he added, Thailand will benefit from increased asset values and inflationary pressures would ease.
"The expected capital influx in Asia will push up the Stock Exchange of Thailand's composite index to 1,000 points this year. It will boost the asset value. So, one of the duties of the new government is to manage foreign capital for (Thailand's) maximum benefit," he said. (TNA)
Asian currencies may return to 1997 levels
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Wanderlust
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I think that the 'Asia Plus Securities president Kongkiate Opaswongkarn' is trying to speculate a little! Asian currencies have and will continue to strengthen against the US dollar but very few other currencies as they are also strengthening against the US dollar! I should think most smart currency speculators and governments have already significantly reduced their holdings of dollars to be honest, and my personal belief is that the US has finally lost it's mantle of being the economy that drives the rest of the world, and this is probably the thin end of the wedge for the US - they are likely to be heading into a huge recession similar to that experienced (but on a much bigger scale) by the UK in the early 80's, when the UK couldn't compete with the more modern and efficient manufacturing economies in countries like Japan and Germany (at the time). For the US now there are a whole multitude of other countries who can produce cheaper and better goods, and much like the UK all those years ago this change is heralded by both a weakening currency and one or several of it's flagship industries going down the pan, along with industrial action by the workers; in the UK it was the steel, coal and car industries, and the latter is on the ropes in the US right now, although I don't know about the others, but i wouldn't mind betting they are on their last legs too.
The one big problem the US has got that the UK did not is that it has followed a very protectionist policy as regards it's home industries, with a number of quotas and tarrifs imposed on a variety of goods from abroad, and this has actually weakened them competitively - once the protection goes, which i expect will happen because of needing to export more, then those protected industries will fall like a house of cards, as it will be impossible to compete with the likes of India, China and Indonesia, among others. I don't think it is going to be a very pleasant time in the US over the next decade or so to be brutally honest, with very high unemployment, inflation and the nasty consequences of those two things.
The one big problem the US has got that the UK did not is that it has followed a very protectionist policy as regards it's home industries, with a number of quotas and tarrifs imposed on a variety of goods from abroad, and this has actually weakened them competitively - once the protection goes, which i expect will happen because of needing to export more, then those protected industries will fall like a house of cards, as it will be impossible to compete with the likes of India, China and Indonesia, among others. I don't think it is going to be a very pleasant time in the US over the next decade or so to be brutally honest, with very high unemployment, inflation and the nasty consequences of those two things.
Re: Asian currencies may return to 1997 levels
I suppose that this "expert" has been mis-quoted, as the definition of "appreciated" is "increase in value".STEVE G wrote: Asia Plus Securities president Kongkiate Opaswongkarn said the US dollar is expected to continue weakening as the result of the ongoing economic slowdown in the United States.
Mr. Kongkiate, who is chairman of the Federation of Thai Capital Market Organisation, said investors would shift to invest in non-dollar assets when the greenback had appreciated, and that most would opt to invest in Asia because it could offer the most attractive returns.
Because of this, it is projected Asian currencies will strengthen to the same level as they were before the economic crisis took place in Thailand in 1997. Before then, the Thai baht has consistently remained at around 25 to the US dollar. (TNA)
His quoted comment regarding the Baht at 25 to the USD is a play on words as well. The fact is the Baht was pegged by the Thai Monetary Authority until 1997, when they were forced to allow it to "float".
Thailand will need to make it`s investment laws a lot more attractive before "most would opt to invest in Asia"!
May you be in heaven half an hour before the devil know`s you`re dead!
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seasidesurfer
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asian currencies
The idea that the Thai economy will benefit from problems in the USA is a myth.
A recession in the USA will have a devastating effect in Asia and a
strong Thai Baht will destroy much of the manufacturing industry dependant on exports priced in dollars.
Tourism will slump and who is going to buy all these expensive houses being built in HuaHin?
A recession in the USA will have a devastating effect in Asia and a
strong Thai Baht will destroy much of the manufacturing industry dependant on exports priced in dollars.
Tourism will slump and who is going to buy all these expensive houses being built in HuaHin?
For those with the time and inclination to read more on the topic of currencies and the US dollar, here is an interesting article from counterpunch.org predicting the dollar's decline and reasons for it.
Note that it was written 3 years ago!
Note also the info about the author at the end. He might know what he is talking about.
November 16, 2004
The Coming Currency Shock
Declining Superpower Act
By PAUL CRAIG ROBERTS
China's currency peg to the US dollar prevents correction of the US trade imbalace and imperils the US dollar's role as reserve currency.
In the post World War II period, the dollar took over the reserve currency role from the British pound, because the supremacy of US manufacturing guaranteed US trade surpluses. The British pound lost its role due to debts of two world wars, loss of empire, a run down industrial base, and socialist attack on UK business.
The reserve currency conveys unique advantages on the favored country. As the reserve currency, the US dollar is guaranteed a high level of demand. Foreign central banks hold their reserves in dollars, and countries are billed in dollars for their oil imports, which requires other countries to buy dollars with their currencies.
As a reserve currency fulfills world needs in addition to the functions of a domestic currency, the favored country can hemorrhage debt for a protracted period on a scale that would promptly wreck any other country's currency.
This advantage is a two-edged sword, because it permits the reserve country to behave irresponsibly by running large trade and budget deficits. When the tide turns against the reserve currency, its exchange value collapses.
The reason for the collapse is the huge stock of reserve currency held by foreigners. When other countries conclude that their hoards of dollars represent claims that the US cannot meet, dollar dumping begins. Financing for US debt dries up; interest rates rise; imported goods become unaffordable and living standards fall.
Flight from the dollar is already underway. During the past two years, the US dollar has declined 52% against the new European currency, the Euro. This decline is striking in view of the sluggish European economy and the fact that many analysts regard the Euro as merely a political currency.
Indeed, the dollar is declining against all currencies that have any international standing: the British pound, the Canadian dollar, the Australian dollar, and even against the Japanese yen despite Tokyo's intervention to support the dollar.
Overcome by hubris and superpower delusion, US policymakers are unaware of America's peril. Economists and pundits are equally in the dark.
Economists believe that decline in the dollar's exchange value will correct the US trade deficit by reducing imports and increasing exports. Once upon a time a case could be argued for this logic. But that was a time before US corporations took to outsourcing jobs and locating production for US markets offshore.
US imports of goods and services rise each time a US factory moves offshore or a US job is outsourced. Goods and services produced offshore by US corporations for US customers count as imports and worsen the trade deficit. The US cannot reduce its trade deficit by increasing sales to China of goods made by US firms in China. As Charles McMillion, president of MBG Information Services, concisely summarizes: "Outsourcing is export substitution."
It is amazing that US policymakers and economists do not understand that dollar devaluation is meaningless as long as China keeps its currency pegged to the dollar.
America's greatest trade imbalance is with China. In 2000 the US merchandise trade deficit with China became larger than the chronic US trade deficit with Japan. By 2003 the US trade deficit with China was almost twice as large as the US deficit with Japan: $124 billion versus $66 billion. This year the US trade deficit with China is expected to be $160, a 29% increase from last year.
This imbalance cannot be corrected as long as China maintains the peg. As the dollar falls against the Euro and other currencies, the Chinese currency falls with it, thus maintaining China's advantage over US goods in world markets.
Both the Clinton and Bush administrations are guilty of permitting China to maintain a grossly undervalued currency that sucks productive capacity out of the US. The combination of cheap Chinese labor and an undervalued currency are destroying US middle class living standards.
As America's industrial base erodes, so does its competitiveness and ability to close its trade deficit through exports.
Currency markets cannot correct the undervalued Chinese currency, because China does not permit its currency to be traded and there are insufficient stocks of Chinese currency in foreign hands with which to form a currency market.
Sooner or later the peg will come to an end--perhaps when China fulfills its WTO obligation to let its currency float. When the peg ends, it will deliver a severe shock to US living standards. Suddenly, Chinese manufactured goods--including advanced technology products--on which the US is now dependent will cost much more. Overnight, shopping at Wal-Mart will be like shopping in high-end department stores.
China accounts for a quarter of the US trade deficit and for one-third of the US deficit in manufactured goods, is the second largest source of US imports after Canada, and is America's third largest trading partner as conventionally measured. Despite these facts, the US government does not publish full current account data for China, instead lumping China in with "Other Countries in Asia and Africa." This keeps the magnitude of the problem out of sight.
Canada and Mexico rank as the US's two largest "trading partners" because of double counting in the measure of imports and exports. For example, the full value of auto bodies shipped across the borders to Canada and Mexico for assembly operations are counted as "exports" when they leave the US and as "imports" when they return.
In contrast US "trade" with China involves almost no double counting of component parts.
Recently, Goodyear Tire and Rubber Company declared its intention to close all US plants and to manufacture offshore for US markets. Each time the US loses an industry, America's export potential declines and America's imports rise. This scenario guarantees a rising trade deficit and the end of the dollar's reserve currency role.
Dr. Paul Craig Roberts was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy during 1981-82.
Note that it was written 3 years ago!
Note also the info about the author at the end. He might know what he is talking about.
November 16, 2004
The Coming Currency Shock
Declining Superpower Act
By PAUL CRAIG ROBERTS
China's currency peg to the US dollar prevents correction of the US trade imbalace and imperils the US dollar's role as reserve currency.
In the post World War II period, the dollar took over the reserve currency role from the British pound, because the supremacy of US manufacturing guaranteed US trade surpluses. The British pound lost its role due to debts of two world wars, loss of empire, a run down industrial base, and socialist attack on UK business.
The reserve currency conveys unique advantages on the favored country. As the reserve currency, the US dollar is guaranteed a high level of demand. Foreign central banks hold their reserves in dollars, and countries are billed in dollars for their oil imports, which requires other countries to buy dollars with their currencies.
As a reserve currency fulfills world needs in addition to the functions of a domestic currency, the favored country can hemorrhage debt for a protracted period on a scale that would promptly wreck any other country's currency.
This advantage is a two-edged sword, because it permits the reserve country to behave irresponsibly by running large trade and budget deficits. When the tide turns against the reserve currency, its exchange value collapses.
The reason for the collapse is the huge stock of reserve currency held by foreigners. When other countries conclude that their hoards of dollars represent claims that the US cannot meet, dollar dumping begins. Financing for US debt dries up; interest rates rise; imported goods become unaffordable and living standards fall.
Flight from the dollar is already underway. During the past two years, the US dollar has declined 52% against the new European currency, the Euro. This decline is striking in view of the sluggish European economy and the fact that many analysts regard the Euro as merely a political currency.
Indeed, the dollar is declining against all currencies that have any international standing: the British pound, the Canadian dollar, the Australian dollar, and even against the Japanese yen despite Tokyo's intervention to support the dollar.
Overcome by hubris and superpower delusion, US policymakers are unaware of America's peril. Economists and pundits are equally in the dark.
Economists believe that decline in the dollar's exchange value will correct the US trade deficit by reducing imports and increasing exports. Once upon a time a case could be argued for this logic. But that was a time before US corporations took to outsourcing jobs and locating production for US markets offshore.
US imports of goods and services rise each time a US factory moves offshore or a US job is outsourced. Goods and services produced offshore by US corporations for US customers count as imports and worsen the trade deficit. The US cannot reduce its trade deficit by increasing sales to China of goods made by US firms in China. As Charles McMillion, president of MBG Information Services, concisely summarizes: "Outsourcing is export substitution."
It is amazing that US policymakers and economists do not understand that dollar devaluation is meaningless as long as China keeps its currency pegged to the dollar.
America's greatest trade imbalance is with China. In 2000 the US merchandise trade deficit with China became larger than the chronic US trade deficit with Japan. By 2003 the US trade deficit with China was almost twice as large as the US deficit with Japan: $124 billion versus $66 billion. This year the US trade deficit with China is expected to be $160, a 29% increase from last year.
This imbalance cannot be corrected as long as China maintains the peg. As the dollar falls against the Euro and other currencies, the Chinese currency falls with it, thus maintaining China's advantage over US goods in world markets.
Both the Clinton and Bush administrations are guilty of permitting China to maintain a grossly undervalued currency that sucks productive capacity out of the US. The combination of cheap Chinese labor and an undervalued currency are destroying US middle class living standards.
As America's industrial base erodes, so does its competitiveness and ability to close its trade deficit through exports.
Currency markets cannot correct the undervalued Chinese currency, because China does not permit its currency to be traded and there are insufficient stocks of Chinese currency in foreign hands with which to form a currency market.
Sooner or later the peg will come to an end--perhaps when China fulfills its WTO obligation to let its currency float. When the peg ends, it will deliver a severe shock to US living standards. Suddenly, Chinese manufactured goods--including advanced technology products--on which the US is now dependent will cost much more. Overnight, shopping at Wal-Mart will be like shopping in high-end department stores.
China accounts for a quarter of the US trade deficit and for one-third of the US deficit in manufactured goods, is the second largest source of US imports after Canada, and is America's third largest trading partner as conventionally measured. Despite these facts, the US government does not publish full current account data for China, instead lumping China in with "Other Countries in Asia and Africa." This keeps the magnitude of the problem out of sight.
Canada and Mexico rank as the US's two largest "trading partners" because of double counting in the measure of imports and exports. For example, the full value of auto bodies shipped across the borders to Canada and Mexico for assembly operations are counted as "exports" when they leave the US and as "imports" when they return.
In contrast US "trade" with China involves almost no double counting of component parts.
Recently, Goodyear Tire and Rubber Company declared its intention to close all US plants and to manufacture offshore for US markets. Each time the US loses an industry, America's export potential declines and America's imports rise. This scenario guarantees a rising trade deficit and the end of the dollar's reserve currency role.
Dr. Paul Craig Roberts was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy during 1981-82.
A second article by Paul Craig Roberts also helps explain the sinking greenback. From counterpunch.org August 21/2006
Will the Unemployed Become Cannon Fodder for Bush's Wars?
Artificial Recovery; Real Job Losses
By PAUL CRAIG ROBERTS
Readers want to know why I have not reported on the payroll jobs statistics for the past two months. Does this mean, they ask, that the situation has turned around and that the US economy is again creating jobs in export and import-competitive sectors?
Alas, no. I did not write about the past two payroll jobs data reports, because it is the same distressing story that other readers say they are bored with hearing.
The July report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics lists 113,000 new jobs, all of which are in services.
“Leisure and hospitalityâ€
Will the Unemployed Become Cannon Fodder for Bush's Wars?
Artificial Recovery; Real Job Losses
By PAUL CRAIG ROBERTS
Readers want to know why I have not reported on the payroll jobs statistics for the past two months. Does this mean, they ask, that the situation has turned around and that the US economy is again creating jobs in export and import-competitive sectors?
Alas, no. I did not write about the past two payroll jobs data reports, because it is the same distressing story that other readers say they are bored with hearing.
The July report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics lists 113,000 new jobs, all of which are in services.
“Leisure and hospitalityâ€
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Wanderlust
- Legend
- Posts: 2862
- Joined: Wed Aug 04, 2004 12:27 pm
- Location: Hua Hin
Interesting articles which essentially back up my depressing summary of what is going to happen in the US I think. Unfortunately, economics is not an exact science and many other factors could come into play; it is also possible, and worrying, that the next US government will again go to war to try and boost the economy, which i believe was the main intent of the 'war on terror', as well as distracting the voters from the perilous domestic economy. Dark times ahead are pretty certain in the US though. 
Interesting article in todays Daily Telegraph, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.j ... iti106.xml, concludes with
Ultimately, the US Federal Reserve can slash rates back to 1pc again – or even to Japanese-style zero rates – if need be. But it cannot re-open the floodgates of liquidity at a time when oil has reached $94 a barrel.
Nor can it easily act alone while the dollar is sliding to all-time lows, and risks a rout.
The Fed is hemmed in. This is the price America must now pay for mortgaging the nation.[/i
Ultimately, the US Federal Reserve can slash rates back to 1pc again – or even to Japanese-style zero rates – if need be. But it cannot re-open the floodgates of liquidity at a time when oil has reached $94 a barrel.
Nor can it easily act alone while the dollar is sliding to all-time lows, and risks a rout.
The Fed is hemmed in. This is the price America must now pay for mortgaging the nation.[/i
"Sometimes I sits and thinks, and then again I just sits" Punch 24th Oct 1906
Sorry guys, not sure what the problem was. Here is the full text
Plunging markets fear a meltdown
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 1:35am GMT 06/11/2007
The peak pain for America's sub-prime debtors will hit next spring as interest rates jerk upwards with venomous effect on all those "teaser" loans taken out at the height of the property bubble in 2005 and 2006.
The losses are already bad enough. A study by Barclays Capital found that 16pc of sub-prime mortgages taken out in January 2006 are in default, and 28pc are in arrears beyond 30 days. Struggling to catch up, the rating agencies downgraded a further $100bn of mortgage debt in October alone.
This mortgage debt – mostly packaged into collateralised debt obligations (CDOs) and sold to banks, hedge funds, insurers, and pension funds across the world – is tracked by the ABX index. This shows that some of the AA tranches have lost 20pc of their value, while the "toxic" BBB tranches have lost almost four fifths.
While it is hard to calculate the damage, it is clear that roughly $2,000bn (£1,000bn) of sub-prime debt and related 'Alt-A' debt is worth far less than book value.
Some can disguise these paper losses. Others are not so lucky. Those that rely on short-term funding in the US commercial paper market can no longer roll over loans, forcing them to sell assets into a sliding market. The asset-backed commercial paper market has contracted for 12 weeks in a row, cutting off $300bn in funding.
Deutsche Bank chairman Josef Ackermann warns that total sub-prime losses are likely to be $150bn to $250bn, triple the bank's estimate in July.
While Citigroup has come clean with write-down of up to $11bn in mortgage loans, few lenders have stepped forward to take their punishment.
The suspicion is that banks in Germany, Spain, and Britain are still trying to muddle through in the hope that the market for CDOs will recover enough to bail them out.
Suki Mann, a strategist at Société Générale, said the credit markets feared an "Armageddon scenario" once again. "We're back to pre-September risk-aversion mode," he said.
Hans-Redeker, currency chief at BNP Paribas, said the banks could not easily reveal their true losses. "Our view is that these losses are so substantial that it puts current business models at risk," he said.
The Federal Reserve has slashed interest rates from 5.25pc to 4.5pc since September but this comes too late to head off what is now the worst property crash since the Great Depression.
The Case-Shiller index of house prices in the 10 biggest US cities fell 5pc in August from a year earlier, and the downturn has since accelerated. Sales have collapsed to the lowest levels since modern records began, while the glut of unsold homes has reached a record 10.5 months supply.
"The data has been much worse than people realized," said Huw van Steenis, chief bank analyst at Morgan Stanley.
"There will be further write-downs. The liquidity problem of a few months ago has now changed into a capital problem, which is more difficult to solve. Banks have chewed through their capital ratios and this is going to put a brake on lending." he said.
Until now, the US economy has held up remarkably well. The US October employment report showed a gain of 166,000 jobs, but this tends to be a lagging indicator. A clutch of consumer surveys now point to a sharp fall in confidence.
It is far from clear that Europe and Asia shake off a cold as America sneezes. Japan – still the world's number two economy – has tipped abruptly into recession. Housing starts fell 43pc in August and 44pc in September, touching a four-decade low. Japanese wages have dropped in nine of the last 10 months, and unemployment has jumped to 4pc, from 3.6pc in July.
Eric Chaney, Morgan Stanley's euro-zone economist, said there was now a risk of a manufacturing recession in Europe. "Production has fallen off a cliff in Germany and has slowed in The Netherlands, France, and Belgium. Something has happened. We take the warning seriously," he said.
Ultimately, the US Federal Reserve can slash rates back to 1pc again – or even to Japanese-style zero rates – if need be. But it cannot re-open the floodgates of liquidity at a time when oil has reached $94 a barrel.
Nor can it easily act alone while the dollar is sliding to all-time lows, and risks a rout.
The Fed is hemmed in. This is the price America must now pay for mortgaging the nation
Plunging markets fear a meltdown
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 1:35am GMT 06/11/2007
The peak pain for America's sub-prime debtors will hit next spring as interest rates jerk upwards with venomous effect on all those "teaser" loans taken out at the height of the property bubble in 2005 and 2006.
The losses are already bad enough. A study by Barclays Capital found that 16pc of sub-prime mortgages taken out in January 2006 are in default, and 28pc are in arrears beyond 30 days. Struggling to catch up, the rating agencies downgraded a further $100bn of mortgage debt in October alone.
This mortgage debt – mostly packaged into collateralised debt obligations (CDOs) and sold to banks, hedge funds, insurers, and pension funds across the world – is tracked by the ABX index. This shows that some of the AA tranches have lost 20pc of their value, while the "toxic" BBB tranches have lost almost four fifths.
While it is hard to calculate the damage, it is clear that roughly $2,000bn (£1,000bn) of sub-prime debt and related 'Alt-A' debt is worth far less than book value.
Some can disguise these paper losses. Others are not so lucky. Those that rely on short-term funding in the US commercial paper market can no longer roll over loans, forcing them to sell assets into a sliding market. The asset-backed commercial paper market has contracted for 12 weeks in a row, cutting off $300bn in funding.
Deutsche Bank chairman Josef Ackermann warns that total sub-prime losses are likely to be $150bn to $250bn, triple the bank's estimate in July.
While Citigroup has come clean with write-down of up to $11bn in mortgage loans, few lenders have stepped forward to take their punishment.
The suspicion is that banks in Germany, Spain, and Britain are still trying to muddle through in the hope that the market for CDOs will recover enough to bail them out.
Suki Mann, a strategist at Société Générale, said the credit markets feared an "Armageddon scenario" once again. "We're back to pre-September risk-aversion mode," he said.
Hans-Redeker, currency chief at BNP Paribas, said the banks could not easily reveal their true losses. "Our view is that these losses are so substantial that it puts current business models at risk," he said.
The Federal Reserve has slashed interest rates from 5.25pc to 4.5pc since September but this comes too late to head off what is now the worst property crash since the Great Depression.
The Case-Shiller index of house prices in the 10 biggest US cities fell 5pc in August from a year earlier, and the downturn has since accelerated. Sales have collapsed to the lowest levels since modern records began, while the glut of unsold homes has reached a record 10.5 months supply.
"The data has been much worse than people realized," said Huw van Steenis, chief bank analyst at Morgan Stanley.
"There will be further write-downs. The liquidity problem of a few months ago has now changed into a capital problem, which is more difficult to solve. Banks have chewed through their capital ratios and this is going to put a brake on lending." he said.
Until now, the US economy has held up remarkably well. The US October employment report showed a gain of 166,000 jobs, but this tends to be a lagging indicator. A clutch of consumer surveys now point to a sharp fall in confidence.
It is far from clear that Europe and Asia shake off a cold as America sneezes. Japan – still the world's number two economy – has tipped abruptly into recession. Housing starts fell 43pc in August and 44pc in September, touching a four-decade low. Japanese wages have dropped in nine of the last 10 months, and unemployment has jumped to 4pc, from 3.6pc in July.
Eric Chaney, Morgan Stanley's euro-zone economist, said there was now a risk of a manufacturing recession in Europe. "Production has fallen off a cliff in Germany and has slowed in The Netherlands, France, and Belgium. Something has happened. We take the warning seriously," he said.
Ultimately, the US Federal Reserve can slash rates back to 1pc again – or even to Japanese-style zero rates – if need be. But it cannot re-open the floodgates of liquidity at a time when oil has reached $94 a barrel.
Nor can it easily act alone while the dollar is sliding to all-time lows, and risks a rout.
The Fed is hemmed in. This is the price America must now pay for mortgaging the nation
"Sometimes I sits and thinks, and then again I just sits" Punch 24th Oct 1906