Guess,
Thats a pretty good assessment of the chances of qualifying, but what about the way England played against Andorra? I watched the match and was baffled at the way England approached the game, although I don't know if it was players not doing as instructed or strange tactics from the manager. Up front we had Defoe, one of the smallest strikers in the world, with Rooney in what appeared to be a roaming role, but also not renowned for his ability in the air. So what were England doing with two wingers (Walcott and Downing) attempting to sling crosses into the box most of the first half? Not only were the majority of these crosses not very good, they were easily dealt with by the defenders. I would hope that was Downings last ever game for England because he was woeful and rightly replaced at half time. Walcott did better and did actually get to the byline and then cut a couple of balls back on the floor for Rooney and Defoe, but both of them blazed wildly over.
The fact that England had no shots on target in the first half is a damning indictment of the players in my opinion.
Second half and Capello made the changes (Cole for Downing, Heskey for Defoe) but again I find the second of these a bit strange (well i find the fact that Heskey is even in the squad a bit strange but never mind) - it seemed obvious to me that by bringing Cole on he would play a lot narrower than Downing and attempt to play more through the middle and more one touch passing than wing play, so bringing Heskey on (who is pretty good in the air) seems odd as he was unlikely to get much service. While Cole obviously did well I would have left Defoe on as he is much more natural finisher than Heskey, and I might have replaced Rooney instead, to rest him ahead of the Croatia game - he wasn't having much impact anyway.
As far as the midfield and defence goes, the latter hardly had anything to do all night, but I thought Johnson did well as an attacking full back but someone should have a word with him about his hair...
Lampard and Barry didn't work for me at all, but again I don't know if they were obeying instructions or not but neither of them seemed to be bursting forward or even taking pot shots at goal - the only shots I can recall from outside the penalty area were by Terry and Johnson. One factor I will allow for the performance is the pitch, which by all accounts was very 'sticky' so did not allow slick, flowing passing movements but this was the team ranked 15th in the world against the team ranked 186th!
I am extremely worried about the Croatia game - the best England can hope for is a draw with the squad available, which would be a good result against a very good team, but my worries are that firstly Capello will set his stall out for a draw, and secondly that we just don't look good enough to trouble Croatia. Football can be a funny game though and now I have said that we will probably thrash them!
