Not sure if this was picked up elsewhere on the forum but I thought it was an interesting article.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-p ... 716033.stm
Class war coming? Protests expose Thai class divide
Interesting article, though maybe a little one sided. The only resolve to this situation is compromise but I can't see either side giving in.
If Thaksin wasn't so greedy and offered something to the south, the city, and business people he would have survived, and if the PAD offered a sensible alternative that didn't involve any kind of fascist military/royalist/elite dictatorship they may be taken more seriously.
I fear more violence and unrest is on the cards.
If Thaksin wasn't so greedy and offered something to the south, the city, and business people he would have survived, and if the PAD offered a sensible alternative that didn't involve any kind of fascist military/royalist/elite dictatorship they may be taken more seriously.
I fear more violence and unrest is on the cards.
Who is the happier man, he who has braved the storm of life and lived or he who has stayed securely on shore and merely existed? - Hunter S Thompson
-
sandman67
- Rock Star
- Posts: 4398
- Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2007 6:11 pm
- Location: I thought you had the map?
one thing that always has me scratching my head is the "poor north" myth. A good lot of the farmers were Mrs S comes from in Issan seem to live in pretty nice houses. Her village is full of the wooden houses, but outside the village they are all shiny balustrades and nice gardens.....
Down south doesnt seem to be rolling in wealth and affluence....but you never hear about "poor south" uneducated farmers......and education is probably pretty rare given schools seem a primary terror target.....
maybe its because there they vote Democrat ?
I agree with Buksi...with Thaksin pouring fuel on the fire, the keystone cops on the streets, and a compliant and kow towing government in control this can only end badly.....
Down south doesnt seem to be rolling in wealth and affluence....but you never hear about "poor south" uneducated farmers......and education is probably pretty rare given schools seem a primary terror target.....
maybe its because there they vote Democrat ?
I agree with Buksi...with Thaksin pouring fuel on the fire, the keystone cops on the streets, and a compliant and kow towing government in control this can only end badly.....
"Science flew men to the moon. Religion flew men into buildings."
"To sin by silence makes cowards of men."
"To sin by silence makes cowards of men."
Having lived and travelled extensively in the south I have to agree with you Sandman .Plenty of very low income families living basic rural lifestyles .
As for the big ,fancy homes you mention .I am sure ,judging by some posts on other threads that they were built 3 years ago when you could get a 6 bedroom house with squashcourts and an olympic pool with private golf course for under a million baht and have since been stolen from the foreigners who built them
Crazy 88
As for the big ,fancy homes you mention .I am sure ,judging by some posts on other threads that they were built 3 years ago when you could get a 6 bedroom house with squashcourts and an olympic pool with private golf course for under a million baht and have since been stolen from the foreigners who built them
Crazy 88
Interesting analysis and possible scenarios from Reuters ...
What's in store for politically riven Thailand?
BANGKOK, Nov 21 (Reuters) - Political tension has returned to Thailand after a brief lull for a royal cremation, with a grenade killing one anti-government protester on Thursday and wounding 23, teeing up another confrontation with police this weekend.
Sunday's planned march on parliament by the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) is likely to be a flashpoint, especially if protesters blockade the building to prevent an important session on Monday.
An identical blockade on Oct. 7 led to running street battles between police and protesters in which two people were killed, and hundreds, including scores of police, were injured.
Whatever happens, Thailand is likely to remain divided between the rural and urban poor who support Thaksin Shinawatra, ousted as leader in a 2006 coup, and the Bangkok middle and upper classes, loosely represented by the PAD, who despise him.
The elected administration, which is accused of being a Thaksin puppet, has been working out of temporary offices in an old airport since the PAD overran Government House in August.
It has all but given up on policy-making, intensifying investors' concerns about the export-dependent economy's ability to cope with global recession.
The following scenarios examine what might happen next:
MESSY SUNDAY
- Unless one side backs down -- and there are few signs they will -- Sunday/Monday is likely to be messy. The PAD's stated intention is to trigger a coup and anarchy is its main weapon.
Police will be mindful of last month's high number of casualties, especially the protesters who lost limbs from exploding tear gas grenades, and are likely to be more cautious.
However, hardline PAD elements are armed, and shot at police lines last month. If any officers are shot dead, it is not hard to see their colleagues responding in kind.
All bets are off if a full-scale shooting match breaks out.
RECRIMINATIONS FLY, CRISIS RUMBLES ON
- Whatever happens on Sunday/Monday, accusations will fly from both sides, ensuring the crisis rumbles on amid a poisonous political atmosphere.
There is bound to be a small lull around the king's birthday on Dec. 5, but tensions will rise ahead of Dec. 13 when the exiled Thaksin holds a "phone-in" to a sports stadium rally.
A similar gathering of 40,000 people on Nov. 1 ended without incident but the venue then was on the outskirts of the city. The Dec. 13 rally is going to be just 1.5 km (1 mile) from the PAD protest site, increasing the chances of confrontation.
COURTS DISBAND RULING PARTY
- The Election Commission has already found the ruling People Power Party (PPP) guilty of vote buying and the Supreme Court is expected to endorse the decision in December or January, leading to the party's immediate dissolution.
Top figures such as Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat, Thaksin's brother-in-law, will be barred from politics but most MPs will simply switch to a "shell" party already lined up, and as long as the ruling coalition holds together, it will stay in power.
Even if there was an election, the ex-PPP would be likely to win due to solid rural support for Thaksin.
Emotions will run high as the court ruling nears.
PAD CAMPAIGN FIZZLES OUT
Before this week's grenade, polls showed waning support for the PAD, which has been snarling up Bangkok traffic for six months, and its numbers at Government House have dwindled.
However, it is inconceivable it will simply wither and die, especially as it has the explicit backing of the highly influential Queen Sirikit. Protesters also made clear on Thursday they were undeterred by the threat of more grenades.
MILITARY COUP
It is never wise to rule out a coup in a country that has had, on average, one successful or attempted putsch every four years since the overthrow of absolute monarchy 76 years ago.
Army chief Anupong Paochinda has put public pressure on Somchai to quit, but has also said the army will not seize control as it is powerless to heal the basic political rift.
KING INTERVENES
- Regarded as semi-divine by many, King Bhumibol Adulyadej carries huge informal political clout and in six decades on the throne has intervened in several disputes, favouring at various times both elected and military administrations.
However, the 80-year-old has stepped in previously only after major bloodshed, and his advancing years and deteriorating health raise doubts about his ability to calm any new outburst.
Source: Reuters
Thoughts: I don't think either side will back down or compromise so more violence and fatalities is a given. It is likely that PPP will be disbanded but they'll be right back (with Thaksin) under another guise and back to their old vote buying and corrupt tricks again. PAD will not stop until they get their way either - which will be just as harmful to the country and its fledgling democratic process. A coup is a possibility but the military are also deeply divided in their loyalties so that could get messy, civil war is also another possibility.
The only solution is the formation of a political party that takes care of the whole country before its own personal greed - but I'm unlikely to witness this in my lifetime so roll on the tanks (again).
What's in store for politically riven Thailand?
BANGKOK, Nov 21 (Reuters) - Political tension has returned to Thailand after a brief lull for a royal cremation, with a grenade killing one anti-government protester on Thursday and wounding 23, teeing up another confrontation with police this weekend.
Sunday's planned march on parliament by the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) is likely to be a flashpoint, especially if protesters blockade the building to prevent an important session on Monday.
An identical blockade on Oct. 7 led to running street battles between police and protesters in which two people were killed, and hundreds, including scores of police, were injured.
Whatever happens, Thailand is likely to remain divided between the rural and urban poor who support Thaksin Shinawatra, ousted as leader in a 2006 coup, and the Bangkok middle and upper classes, loosely represented by the PAD, who despise him.
The elected administration, which is accused of being a Thaksin puppet, has been working out of temporary offices in an old airport since the PAD overran Government House in August.
It has all but given up on policy-making, intensifying investors' concerns about the export-dependent economy's ability to cope with global recession.
The following scenarios examine what might happen next:
MESSY SUNDAY
- Unless one side backs down -- and there are few signs they will -- Sunday/Monday is likely to be messy. The PAD's stated intention is to trigger a coup and anarchy is its main weapon.
Police will be mindful of last month's high number of casualties, especially the protesters who lost limbs from exploding tear gas grenades, and are likely to be more cautious.
However, hardline PAD elements are armed, and shot at police lines last month. If any officers are shot dead, it is not hard to see their colleagues responding in kind.
All bets are off if a full-scale shooting match breaks out.
RECRIMINATIONS FLY, CRISIS RUMBLES ON
- Whatever happens on Sunday/Monday, accusations will fly from both sides, ensuring the crisis rumbles on amid a poisonous political atmosphere.
There is bound to be a small lull around the king's birthday on Dec. 5, but tensions will rise ahead of Dec. 13 when the exiled Thaksin holds a "phone-in" to a sports stadium rally.
A similar gathering of 40,000 people on Nov. 1 ended without incident but the venue then was on the outskirts of the city. The Dec. 13 rally is going to be just 1.5 km (1 mile) from the PAD protest site, increasing the chances of confrontation.
COURTS DISBAND RULING PARTY
- The Election Commission has already found the ruling People Power Party (PPP) guilty of vote buying and the Supreme Court is expected to endorse the decision in December or January, leading to the party's immediate dissolution.
Top figures such as Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat, Thaksin's brother-in-law, will be barred from politics but most MPs will simply switch to a "shell" party already lined up, and as long as the ruling coalition holds together, it will stay in power.
Even if there was an election, the ex-PPP would be likely to win due to solid rural support for Thaksin.
Emotions will run high as the court ruling nears.
PAD CAMPAIGN FIZZLES OUT
Before this week's grenade, polls showed waning support for the PAD, which has been snarling up Bangkok traffic for six months, and its numbers at Government House have dwindled.
However, it is inconceivable it will simply wither and die, especially as it has the explicit backing of the highly influential Queen Sirikit. Protesters also made clear on Thursday they were undeterred by the threat of more grenades.
MILITARY COUP
It is never wise to rule out a coup in a country that has had, on average, one successful or attempted putsch every four years since the overthrow of absolute monarchy 76 years ago.
Army chief Anupong Paochinda has put public pressure on Somchai to quit, but has also said the army will not seize control as it is powerless to heal the basic political rift.
KING INTERVENES
- Regarded as semi-divine by many, King Bhumibol Adulyadej carries huge informal political clout and in six decades on the throne has intervened in several disputes, favouring at various times both elected and military administrations.
However, the 80-year-old has stepped in previously only after major bloodshed, and his advancing years and deteriorating health raise doubts about his ability to calm any new outburst.
Source: Reuters
Thoughts: I don't think either side will back down or compromise so more violence and fatalities is a given. It is likely that PPP will be disbanded but they'll be right back (with Thaksin) under another guise and back to their old vote buying and corrupt tricks again. PAD will not stop until they get their way either - which will be just as harmful to the country and its fledgling democratic process. A coup is a possibility but the military are also deeply divided in their loyalties so that could get messy, civil war is also another possibility.
The only solution is the formation of a political party that takes care of the whole country before its own personal greed - but I'm unlikely to witness this in my lifetime so roll on the tanks (again).
Who is the happier man, he who has braved the storm of life and lived or he who has stayed securely on shore and merely existed? - Hunter S Thompson
What could cause a real problem now is the fact that Thaksin has nothing more to lose which could make him a very dangerous man.
There could be a situation where he causes disruption not in a bid for power, but purely to take revenge on his enemies.
He has stated that he knows who was behind the alleged assassination attempt on his life before the coup and intends to name them in the near future.
There could be a situation where he causes disruption not in a bid for power, but purely to take revenge on his enemies.
He has stated that he knows who was behind the alleged assassination attempt on his life before the coup and intends to name them in the near future.