Consumer confidence index drops to 5-year low in February
BANGKOK: -- The consumer confidence index in all categories declined to a five-year low in February, dampened by political woes, New Year’s bombings in Bangkok and escalating violence in the deep South, according to the University of Thai Chamber of Commerce.
Saovanee Thairungrueng, Deputy Rector of UTCC, said a survey on confidence in the Thai economy in February found the consumer confidence index dropped to 79 points from 79.99.
The current and future confidence indexes declined to 76.8 and 77.1 from 77.7 and 78. So did the confidence index for overall economy, job opportunities, and future incomes, which dropped to 73.4, 74.4, and 89.2 from 74.2, 75.4, and 90.2, respectively.
She said the index in all categories plunged to a five-year low due to many negative factors. Included are a further oil price rise, a lack of political stability following a resignation of Pridiyathorn Devakula as deputy prime minister and finance minister, a resignation of Somkid Jatusripitak as the chairman of a committee tasked to explain the sufficiency economy philosophy to foreign communities, fears of possible bombings in Bangkok, and continuing southern unrest.
As well, the Finance Ministry’s downward revision of the economic growth estimate for this year, the further baht appreciation, and higher living costs of people had undermined consumers’ confidence.
A reduction in the one-day repurchase rate by 25 basis points and lending rate by the same rate is only a positive factor that helped investment sentiment in the stock market and made the baht weaken slightly.
Thanawat Polvichai, Director of the UTCC’s Economic and Business Forecasting Centre, said the survey indicated a marked decline in the consumer confidence index, which is of grave concern.
He suggested the government step up efforts to stimulate the economy through fiscal and monetary measures by accelerating a disbursement of the fiscal budget to boost employment, reducing key interest rates by 0.50 per cent by the second quarter of this year, and easing the 30 per cent reserve requirement to restore foreign investor confidence.
And the Future is????
Tales of Woe effecting the Economy, Where will it End????
The Thai baht hit a new nine-year high against the dollar on Wednesday amid growing speculation that the army-backed government will soon lift controversial currency controls, dealers said.
The Thai currency reached 35.07 to the dollar in early morning trade, up from Tuesday's finish at 35.14-15.
The baht has risen nearly 12 percent over the past year, prompting the government to impose the capital rules in December in a bid to halt the currency's rise which has been dampening exports.
The Thai currency reached 35.07 to the dollar in early morning trade, up from Tuesday's finish at 35.14-15.
The baht has risen nearly 12 percent over the past year, prompting the government to impose the capital rules in December in a bid to halt the currency's rise which has been dampening exports.
Could someone explain in simlpe terms why the Baht is so strong, we have had bomb's in the South and BKK, Thaks fleeing the country, we've had a coup and some Government Statement's fueling uncertainty for foriegn investment.Jockey wrote:The Thai baht hit a new nine-year high against the dollar on Wednesday amid growing speculation that the army-backed government will soon lift controversial currency controls, dealers said.
The Thai currency reached 35.07 to the dollar in early morning trade, up from Tuesday's finish at 35.14-15.
The baht has risen nearly 12 percent over the past year, prompting the government to impose the capital rules in December in a bid to halt the currency's rise which has been dampening exports.
The Baht now is at a 9 year high, why.
Some people feel compelled to explain but the truth is the baht should be weak. All I can think of is no one (internationally) cares about Thailand's internal problems - the dollar is weak and Thailand is popular. When the shit hits the fan the baht will be 80 baht to the pound (the dollar will remain weak). Its obviousBEARHUG wrote:Could someone explain in simlpe terms why the Baht is so strong, we have had bomb's in the South and BKK, Thaks fleeing the country, we've had a coup and some Government Statement's fueling uncertainty for foriegn investment.Jockey wrote:The Thai baht hit a new nine-year high against the dollar on Wednesday amid growing speculation that the army-backed government will soon lift controversial currency controls, dealers said.
The Thai currency reached 35.07 to the dollar in early morning trade, up from Tuesday's finish at 35.14-15.
The baht has risen nearly 12 percent over the past year, prompting the government to impose the capital rules in December in a bid to halt the currency's rise which has been dampening exports.
The Baht now is at a 9 year high, why.
Mounting political and social instability greatly weakened domestic demand in Thailand during 2006, and a series of policy miscues ensures that stocks, bonds and the Thai currency, the baht, are likely to fall as flight of domestic and foreign capital accelerates in the months ahead.
With the economy already weakening, political instability and softened external demand for exports will almost certainly push the Thai economy into recession by the second half of 2007.
Full Story : Asia Times Online
With the economy already weakening, political instability and softened external demand for exports will almost certainly push the Thai economy into recession by the second half of 2007.
Full Story : Asia Times Online
Who is the happier man, he who has braved the storm of life and lived or he who has stayed securely on shore and merely existed? - Hunter S Thompson
Because smart people buy and invest when confidence is low.Could someone explain in simlpe terms why the Baht is so strong, we have had bomb's in the South and BKK, Thaks fleeing the country, we've had a coup and some Government Statement's fueling uncertainty for foriegn investment.
The Baht now is at a 9 year high, why.
Wasn't there a lot of speculation on the Baht (purchasing it) a whille back, which led to the 30% capital inflow deduction thingy.
Burger
Also the smart people look at trends, they know Thailand's history and that it will be back to normal soon.
Same as property (forgive me for bringing this up, but it's not for personal reasons but because I believe it).
Smart people will, and are, investing now when confidence is low, others will buy next year when confidence is high (playing safe) but prices will be higher.
Some say that's a gamble but the smart people will say they never took a gamble they looked at the trends, ie: 5 no. law changes that each and every time the government exempted property buyers and never restricted them. The Thai Long Stay Programme being introduced (albeit expensive), it passed a bill in Governement and is 30% owned by TAT, was that all done if property buying is to stop soon!!
Now the FBA, the local bad news is being revised now by the Legistalive council to take out the Limited Companies being classed as 'foreign' due to voting rights, and therefore leaving us alone.
Why ? because the Government welcomes this investment, it's good money for the country, even if it's relatively small.
Christ, we all know about Thai's and how they love taking money off us.
Sermon over, going out for 10 San Miguel Lights, manow duey krup.
Burger
Same as property (forgive me for bringing this up, but it's not for personal reasons but because I believe it).
Smart people will, and are, investing now when confidence is low, others will buy next year when confidence is high (playing safe) but prices will be higher.
Some say that's a gamble but the smart people will say they never took a gamble they looked at the trends, ie: 5 no. law changes that each and every time the government exempted property buyers and never restricted them. The Thai Long Stay Programme being introduced (albeit expensive), it passed a bill in Governement and is 30% owned by TAT, was that all done if property buying is to stop soon!!
Now the FBA, the local bad news is being revised now by the Legistalive council to take out the Limited Companies being classed as 'foreign' due to voting rights, and therefore leaving us alone.
Why ? because the Government welcomes this investment, it's good money for the country, even if it's relatively small.
Christ, we all know about Thai's and how they love taking money off us.
Sermon over, going out for 10 San Miguel Lights, manow duey krup.
Burger
March 26 (Bloomberg) -- Thailand's proposed tighter laws on foreign ownership are ``too extreme'' and will probably be ``weakened,'' Finance Minister Chalongphob Sussangkarn said.
Amendments to the Foreign Business Act, which restricts overseas investment, voting rights in companies and the use of local nominees to circumvent limits, are being revised and should affect fewer industries, Chalongphob said.
``My own position is that this act is too extreme,'' he said in an interview in Bangkok. ``We need to make sure that when we pass this Foreign Business Act, it should be weakened more than when it was introduced.''
Investors have been spooked by recent government and central bank rule changes, including tightening foreign ownership limits, capital controls and shareholder probes. The military-installed government and regulators are reviewing economic policies after consumer confidence slid to a six-month low and foreign direct investment slumped.
``People's concern reflects growing economic nationalism and that could affect future policy decisions,'' said Sriyan Pietersz, head of research at JPMorgan Securities (Thailand) Ltd. ``It's important for Thailand to dispel those impressions.''
Chalongphob joined Thailand's junta-backed Cabinet earlier this month after his predecessor, Pridiyathorn Devakula, quit. Pridiyathorn backed the initial proposed changes to Thailand's Foreign Business Act.
`Social Pressure'
The Council of State, which reviews the legality of legislation, has sent the Foreign Business Act amendments back to the Cabinet for clarifications, and further softening is probable before it is passed by the National Legislative Assembly into law, Chalongphob said.
``There's a recognition among policymakers that they do need to be careful about Thailand's image abroad,'' said James McCormack, head of Fitch Ratings' Asian sovereign ratings group. ``Rightly or wrongly, from an international investor's perspective, it has been tarnished, and I think policymakers are aware of that.''
The government ``was under social pressure'' to crack down after the sale of Shin Corp. to investors led by Singapore's Temasek Holdings Pte, he said. Rather than toughening the Foreign Business Act, which affects ``a very broad base of businesses,'' the administration could have simply tightened the Telecom Act and avoided scaring away investors.
`Wrong Impression'
``Many people within the National Legislative Assembly also feel the same way, that this law may be giving the wrong impression and it may impact our business environment in the medium to long term,'' he said. ``Foreigners looked at this and they're very worried because they think Thailand is now not welcoming foreigners.''
Thailand must also cut interest rates and speed up government spending to stimulate consumer and investor confidence and counter the slowing economy, hurt by prolonged political instability and ``harsh'' policies, Chalongphob said.
Temasek, a Singapore state-owned investment company, led investors last year to acquire 96 percent of Shin, a telecommunications holding company, from investors including the family of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. The deal aggravated street protests and deepened a political crisis that culminated in Thaksin's ouster in a coup in September.
Army chief Sondhi Boonyarataklin, who led the coup, said on Feb. 16 he wants the nation to regain control of Thai assets acquired by Temasek. Sondhi in January said that Singapore may use Shin Corp.'s mobile-phone network and satellites for spying, which the city-state and companies involved have denied.
The government can clarify ``a few clauses'' of the Telecom Act to resolve ownership and security concerns related to Shin Corp., Chalongphob said. It can also reduce the number of industries affected by the Foreign Business Act.
``Thailand's friendliness to foreign businesses and foreign people in general is one of our main strengths,'' Chalongphob said. ``We don't want to throw away our main strength just because we had to deal with something that happened because of the last government.''
Amendments to the Foreign Business Act, which restricts overseas investment, voting rights in companies and the use of local nominees to circumvent limits, are being revised and should affect fewer industries, Chalongphob said.
``My own position is that this act is too extreme,'' he said in an interview in Bangkok. ``We need to make sure that when we pass this Foreign Business Act, it should be weakened more than when it was introduced.''
Investors have been spooked by recent government and central bank rule changes, including tightening foreign ownership limits, capital controls and shareholder probes. The military-installed government and regulators are reviewing economic policies after consumer confidence slid to a six-month low and foreign direct investment slumped.
``People's concern reflects growing economic nationalism and that could affect future policy decisions,'' said Sriyan Pietersz, head of research at JPMorgan Securities (Thailand) Ltd. ``It's important for Thailand to dispel those impressions.''
Chalongphob joined Thailand's junta-backed Cabinet earlier this month after his predecessor, Pridiyathorn Devakula, quit. Pridiyathorn backed the initial proposed changes to Thailand's Foreign Business Act.
`Social Pressure'
The Council of State, which reviews the legality of legislation, has sent the Foreign Business Act amendments back to the Cabinet for clarifications, and further softening is probable before it is passed by the National Legislative Assembly into law, Chalongphob said.
``There's a recognition among policymakers that they do need to be careful about Thailand's image abroad,'' said James McCormack, head of Fitch Ratings' Asian sovereign ratings group. ``Rightly or wrongly, from an international investor's perspective, it has been tarnished, and I think policymakers are aware of that.''
The government ``was under social pressure'' to crack down after the sale of Shin Corp. to investors led by Singapore's Temasek Holdings Pte, he said. Rather than toughening the Foreign Business Act, which affects ``a very broad base of businesses,'' the administration could have simply tightened the Telecom Act and avoided scaring away investors.
`Wrong Impression'
``Many people within the National Legislative Assembly also feel the same way, that this law may be giving the wrong impression and it may impact our business environment in the medium to long term,'' he said. ``Foreigners looked at this and they're very worried because they think Thailand is now not welcoming foreigners.''
Thailand must also cut interest rates and speed up government spending to stimulate consumer and investor confidence and counter the slowing economy, hurt by prolonged political instability and ``harsh'' policies, Chalongphob said.
Temasek, a Singapore state-owned investment company, led investors last year to acquire 96 percent of Shin, a telecommunications holding company, from investors including the family of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. The deal aggravated street protests and deepened a political crisis that culminated in Thaksin's ouster in a coup in September.
Army chief Sondhi Boonyarataklin, who led the coup, said on Feb. 16 he wants the nation to regain control of Thai assets acquired by Temasek. Sondhi in January said that Singapore may use Shin Corp.'s mobile-phone network and satellites for spying, which the city-state and companies involved have denied.
The government can clarify ``a few clauses'' of the Telecom Act to resolve ownership and security concerns related to Shin Corp., Chalongphob said. It can also reduce the number of industries affected by the Foreign Business Act.
``Thailand's friendliness to foreign businesses and foreign people in general is one of our main strengths,'' Chalongphob said. ``We don't want to throw away our main strength just because we had to deal with something that happened because of the last government.''
Good article Steve.
They love us to bits ......... but only for the above reasons
Burger
Ie: They want our investment, they want our money, they want us to buy property.Thailand's friendliness to foreign businesses and foreign people in general is one of our main strengths,'' Chalongphob said. We don't want to throw away our main strength just because we had to deal with something that happened because of the last government.''
They love us to bits ......... but only for the above reasons
Burger
Pete
Burger,
you're great! It's wonderful to read your statements! You really make me laugh a lot!
It reminds me a little bit of my youth when I have read the book "The Surprising Adventures of Baron Munchhausen" first time.
Now I just hope you won't try to escape from a swamp, too, by pulling yourself up by your own hair after the 10 (or more) San Miguels Light, or if you can’t find enough gamblers in time…oops…I meant â€
you're great! It's wonderful to read your statements! You really make me laugh a lot!
It reminds me a little bit of my youth when I have read the book "The Surprising Adventures of Baron Munchhausen" first time.
Now I just hope you won't try to escape from a swamp, too, by pulling yourself up by your own hair after the 10 (or more) San Miguels Light, or if you can’t find enough gamblers in time…oops…I meant â€