Well if the baht continues to fall much further I'm off
With recession, falling interest rates ( 1 - 2%) and UK projected inflation to 1%inflation I might be just as well off in the UK
Baht devaluation
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Wanderlust
- Legend
- Posts: 2862
- Joined: Wed Aug 04, 2004 12:27 pm
- Location: Hua Hin
Of course it is possible that the 'devaluation' might happen naturally because of currency speculation, and if that happens then it is uncontrolled and the baht could spiral into areas not seen since the crash, particularly if the dollar also tanks again. A controlled devaluation by the government now would end up much better for Thailand in the long run.
The baht is staying strong for the same reason that the Yen is, all of the rich Thais are bringing their money back home before the rest of the world ends up like Iceland and Hungary. By the same token the Thailand s/e today blew 10.5% in cold blood triggering the break to prevent any further falls. Just maybe all those gurus here, you know the ones with their heads in the sand and their tud facing the sun will remove their heads from their present position and take action before Thailand takes a trip back to the IMF, but they had better be quick or they may find the cupboard is bare!!!!
ps I wish I had gone to skool like all youse lot then maybees I coud spell proper and it wouldnt take me 1 hour to write a reply!
Nearly missed Fawlty Towers but woz saved cause Come danicng came on!
ps I wish I had gone to skool like all youse lot then maybees I coud spell proper and it wouldnt take me 1 hour to write a reply!
Nearly missed Fawlty Towers but woz saved cause Come danicng came on!
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Wanderlust
- Legend
- Posts: 2862
- Joined: Wed Aug 04, 2004 12:27 pm
- Location: Hua Hin
I bought some more Gold today for 12550 in Yaowarat. Wasn't easy to find bars since none of the gold shops have any. I managed to find one that allowed me to buy bullion but delivery in 2 weeks and a lengthy queue. If you want gold as a potential hedge against devaluation, then you may have to settle for Jewellery. At least in Chinatown.
Another aspect of buying gold in LOS, there is a cartel operating. When Gold hit $660-ish on Thursday, the Thai gold price should have dipped too. It didn't move.
A camera crew came into the shop while I was there so if you see an 'extremist twit' or whatever Lindosfan1 called me, you'll know it's me.
Why did I buy now? Because I figured Gold was oversold and I have a direct line to Doom-mongers, Inc....
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/g ... teid=yhoof
Chart-wise it appears Gold came back to test 750 and fell back, that's not a good sign, especially with a confirmed trend reversal off the high. Next stop could be $500.
I'll give it some time. No point panicking and selling at a loss, then finding when it does take off again, there's none available to buy.
Watch the Arab countries to see if the Dinar becomes gold-backed. If they go that route, Gold is definitely a good buy.
Another aspect of buying gold in LOS, there is a cartel operating. When Gold hit $660-ish on Thursday, the Thai gold price should have dipped too. It didn't move.
A camera crew came into the shop while I was there so if you see an 'extremist twit' or whatever Lindosfan1 called me, you'll know it's me.
Why did I buy now? Because I figured Gold was oversold and I have a direct line to Doom-mongers, Inc....
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/g ... teid=yhoof
Chart-wise it appears Gold came back to test 750 and fell back, that's not a good sign, especially with a confirmed trend reversal off the high. Next stop could be $500.
I'll give it some time. No point panicking and selling at a loss, then finding when it does take off again, there's none available to buy.
Watch the Arab countries to see if the Dinar becomes gold-backed. If they go that route, Gold is definitely a good buy.
devalue the Baht and then dissolve the government, that should make exports easier to sell and cause a new election which will deal with the current political situation.
Then when I have managed to sell my house because the rate is at 90 take just enough to live in a country not run by Mickey & Minnie and leave the rest here untill the Baht strenghtens again.
Ouch just woke up!!!!!!!!!!
Then when I have managed to sell my house because the rate is at 90 take just enough to live in a country not run by Mickey & Minnie and leave the rest here untill the Baht strenghtens again.
Ouch just woke up!!!!!!!!!!
On the one hand, I need to transfer a slug from Farangland to LOS so the pound/baht is making this very expensive indeed - so lets hope for a devaluation of the baht in the next 24 hours.
On the other, at least my house is worth so much more now when I have to sell it to buy food back here in Blighty. Good job there's a queue of buyers
Or Clive could cut his charges
On the other, at least my house is worth so much more now when I have to sell it to buy food back here in Blighty. Good job there's a queue of buyers
Or Clive could cut his charges
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Thats just the end of the ones queuing up for mine, that you can see, Jim!Jim wrote:On the one hand, I need to transfer a slug from Farangland to LOS so the pound/baht is making this very expensive indeed - so lets hope for a devaluation of the baht in the next 24 hours.
On the other, at least my house is worth so much more now when I have to sell it to buy food back here in Blighty. Good job there's a queue of buyers
Or Clive could cut his charges
May you be in heaven half an hour before the devil know`s you`re dead!
I'm sitting on 400,000 at 74 to the pound, hoping that the baht sinks before I lose my savings over here.
My head tells me that with the baht being so strong, loss of exports and tourism and all the sectors that go with that........I'll give it 3 months at the most before it tanks!
Some observers say that it's good for imports, it probably would be if you had the money in the first place to import foreign goods!
My head tells me that with the baht being so strong, loss of exports and tourism and all the sectors that go with that........I'll give it 3 months at the most before it tanks!
Some observers say that it's good for imports, it probably would be if you had the money in the first place to import foreign goods!
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CURRENCY MARKETS
How much lower can the baht go?
source: Bangkok Post Oct 28 2008
The baht is likely to continue to weaken for the near future as foreign investors continue to dump emerging market assets and export growth slows due to the global economic downturn.
The baht closed yesterday at 34.79/89 to the dollar, compared with 34.7 on Friday and 33.85 at the end of September.
Analysts said the US dollar was likely to extend gains against other currencies as US financial institutions continue to reduce their leveraging in the wake of the global crisis.
Institutional investors such as hedge funds and pension funds have also been heavy sellers of emerging market assets as investors cut losses and retreat to cash or risk-free US treasury bonds.
The one exception has been the Japanese yen, which climbed to 92 to the US dollar yesterday as investors continued to reverse "carry-trades", where traders borrow in low-interest yen to finance investments in higher-yielding assets in other currencies.
Dealers said statements by the Group of Seven industrialised countries that the yen's movements were "excessive" were all but ignored by the market. The currency rose to a 13-year high of 92.65/7 yen to the dollar compared with 94.24 last week, while the euro fell to 1.243 against the greenback as the financial crisis continues to affect the Eurozone.
For the baht, analysts said further declines were likely against the dollar in line with other Asian currencies. Falling export revenues, foreign investment inflows and tourism receipts would further add pressure to depreciate.
Nicholas Bibby, senior regional economist at Barclays Capital, predicted that the baht was likely to break 38 to a dollar in the first quarter of 2009 and stabilise in the remainder of next year.
"We expect the dollar to strengthen against Asian emerging markets' currencies. The main factor is risk aversion. Also inflows to capital accounts will subdued," he said.
Other Asian currencies, including the Korean won, Singapore dollar and Philippine peso are also trading at multi-year lows against the dollar due to capital outflows.
Another dealer noted that the baht had actually been less volatile in recent months when compared with other currencies, thanks in part to the fact that capital outflows had been ongoing since the beginning of the year.
Foreign equity investors have been net sellers of over 140 billion baht worth of stock this year, due in part to the political instability that has dominated the headlines since mid-year.
According to the Kasikorn Research Center, the baht was now down 3.2% against the dollar since January. In the first quarter, the baht appreciated 7.2% against the dollar, but has since given up all its gains over the past six months.
"Actually, the depreciation of the baht should help improve export competitiveness as the Chinese yuan and the yen have both strengthened against the dollar," said one Kasikorn Research executive.
How much lower can the baht go?
source: Bangkok Post Oct 28 2008
The baht is likely to continue to weaken for the near future as foreign investors continue to dump emerging market assets and export growth slows due to the global economic downturn.
The baht closed yesterday at 34.79/89 to the dollar, compared with 34.7 on Friday and 33.85 at the end of September.
Analysts said the US dollar was likely to extend gains against other currencies as US financial institutions continue to reduce their leveraging in the wake of the global crisis.
Institutional investors such as hedge funds and pension funds have also been heavy sellers of emerging market assets as investors cut losses and retreat to cash or risk-free US treasury bonds.
The one exception has been the Japanese yen, which climbed to 92 to the US dollar yesterday as investors continued to reverse "carry-trades", where traders borrow in low-interest yen to finance investments in higher-yielding assets in other currencies.
Dealers said statements by the Group of Seven industrialised countries that the yen's movements were "excessive" were all but ignored by the market. The currency rose to a 13-year high of 92.65/7 yen to the dollar compared with 94.24 last week, while the euro fell to 1.243 against the greenback as the financial crisis continues to affect the Eurozone.
For the baht, analysts said further declines were likely against the dollar in line with other Asian currencies. Falling export revenues, foreign investment inflows and tourism receipts would further add pressure to depreciate.
Nicholas Bibby, senior regional economist at Barclays Capital, predicted that the baht was likely to break 38 to a dollar in the first quarter of 2009 and stabilise in the remainder of next year.
"We expect the dollar to strengthen against Asian emerging markets' currencies. The main factor is risk aversion. Also inflows to capital accounts will subdued," he said.
Other Asian currencies, including the Korean won, Singapore dollar and Philippine peso are also trading at multi-year lows against the dollar due to capital outflows.
Another dealer noted that the baht had actually been less volatile in recent months when compared with other currencies, thanks in part to the fact that capital outflows had been ongoing since the beginning of the year.
Foreign equity investors have been net sellers of over 140 billion baht worth of stock this year, due in part to the political instability that has dominated the headlines since mid-year.
According to the Kasikorn Research Center, the baht was now down 3.2% against the dollar since January. In the first quarter, the baht appreciated 7.2% against the dollar, but has since given up all its gains over the past six months.
"Actually, the depreciation of the baht should help improve export competitiveness as the Chinese yuan and the yen have both strengthened against the dollar," said one Kasikorn Research executive.
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cookmanchef
- Professional
- Posts: 280
- Joined: Wed Oct 24, 2007 1:43 am
Baht Devaluation
The current problem is more a case of the pounds weakness than the baht's strength, but I do agree that the the baht will be allowed to weaken soon.
10% export growth for 2009 is very optimistic, European food importers are now looking at markets like Ukraine to replace their Thai suppliers.
As an export driven economy the baht cannot be allowed to be too strong but these are exceptional times where governments struggle to beat the speculators. Equally the UK is very much an importing economy so the pound will be supported after the next round of rate cuts.
May/June next year it should be back around 62-65 as this suits all parties.
10% export growth for 2009 is very optimistic, European food importers are now looking at markets like Ukraine to replace their Thai suppliers.
As an export driven economy the baht cannot be allowed to be too strong but these are exceptional times where governments struggle to beat the speculators. Equally the UK is very much an importing economy so the pound will be supported after the next round of rate cuts.
May/June next year it should be back around 62-65 as this suits all parties.
Baht devaluation
SJ, how easy or difficult is it to open a sterling account in Thailand, what paperwork do you need?